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Tag: covel

Leave Your Analysis at the Door

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Micheal, I have a question for you that you might be having an answer for it. The question is related to those that try to ignore your market views only because its not based on fundamentals but based on TA [technical analysis], which is a huge debate that has been going on for centuries. For example, when you do your analysis and come up with a result that [the] market is indicting weakness in the medium term but market continues going higher and after few weeks or a month markets start to sell off aggressively and losing 15% in 1 week. Those people come to you and tell you, “But you where bearish for a long time and market went up and if we sold at that time we would have lost that the extra profit,” while if you told them [the] market could drop tomorrow, and it did they will also say that there was not enough time to get out as your call was late. How do you over come such debate? Appreciate your thoughts. Thanks in advance.

I am a trend follower. None of this debate or analysis applies. Have you read my first two books?

Note: Asking to read my books is not a dodge to his question, but rather an answer that will make his life better if he listens.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 240: Nir Eyal Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Nir Eyal
Nir Eyal

My guest today is Nir Eyal, an educator, author, and entrepreneur who is all about connecting psychology, technology, and business.

The topic is his book Hooked: How To Build Habit Forming Products.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How behavior and habits can be engineered, and how technology changes our behavior
  • The moral implications of habit forming activities
  • The difference between habits and addictions
  • Breaking “the hook”
  • The four areas that “the hook” goes through: trigger, action, variable reward, and investment
  • The IKEA example and how value can be built
  • Eyal’s mentors and influences
  • The importance of social feedback from your community
  • The WhatsApp deal, and how to deal with your “insane jealousy” of the messaging app deal
  • Getting equal pay for equal work, and how that might be embedded in our DNA
  • The importance of interface changes when it comes to revolutionary changes in technology

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Ep. 239: Brett Steenbarger Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Brett Steenbarger
Brett Steenbarger

My guest today is Brett Steenbarger, a Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • What a “flow state” is, and why it’s important
  • How Steenbarger has seen flow connect to the trading world, and the importance of matching your level of difficulty and challenge
  • Risk and risk tolerance
  • The logical and psychological sides to risk
  • “What have you done for me lately” attitude for investors
  • Why we don’t grow if we stay within our comfort zones
  • Process vs. outcome
  • The psychological burden of certain fee structures
  • Some of the common characteristics of successful traders
  • Slow thinking, deep thinking, and fast thinking
  • Where we’re headed regarding prescription drugs related to the mind
  • Trend trading vs. mean reversion
  • Contextualism
  • Trend following vs. momentum trading
  • How people actually behave vs. how they describe their behavior

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I Want Your Interview Ideas, But There Are Limits

Posted on by Michael Covel

Don’t hesitate to send me your interview requests or content suggestions. I may decide it is not right for my show, but it never hurts to drop a line and let me know your thoughts. For example, recent feedback in:

How about Gary Smith [as a podcast interviewee], the intraday trader? The image attached is his equity curve…if its real.

Thanks, but I don’t think a pure day trader alone makes much sense for me.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Dr. Phil Doesn’t Work Here

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent exchange:

Mary: I’ll start by mentioning that I love most of the podcasts. I am also so appreciative that you created the Broke dvd, and The Complete TurtleTrader book. Ironically, many of us that don’t follow the herd still like to know that there are others out there like us. I listened to podcast episode 231 recently, and I wanted to give feedback, because you asked your listeners to! Episode 231 felt to me like I was being subjected to an infomercial. Every time you mentioned the words ‘Trend Following’, I felt like I was being asked to send you a 10k check. Trend following is certainly the subject of that podcast, but it sounded more like a pitch for the program you are selling. I didn’t hear the specifics of the report you were discussing. I’m not implying anything negative about your program because I haven’t tried it, and I don’t mind that you are selling it, I just don’t want to get to the end of a 30 minute podcast and feel that I listened to a live ad. That being said I can usually trust and count on your podcasts to be very valuable and I am a lunchtime listener. It makes my day!

Mike: Everyone is entitled to their opinion. People can judge my world off one podcast, or more than one, or none. People can read my books and draw conclusions, or not. Thanks for your feedback.

Mary: Thanks for the response, but no response would have been better in this case. ‘Thanks for being a loyal listener!!’ Would have been more appropriate.

Not sure what to say. Dr. Phil I am not.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 238: Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman
Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman

My guests today are Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman.

Hite is a hedge fund manager and is one of the forefathers of system trading. He was famously featured in the Market Wizards book. A few years ago he started ISAM with Stanley Fink. Greyserman has 25 years of experience in the CTA industry, and was originally hired by Larry Hite at Mint.

Greyserman is Chief Scientist at ISAM (PhD in Statistics). He is also a professor at Columbia University.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Singapore, and Covel’s recent excursions in Asia
  • How the game has stayed the same despite zero interest rate policy
  • What people are missing when they say “trend following is dead”
  • How you’ll never get perfection
  • Their 800 year study, the premise, and what was found out
  • Measuring human nature
  • The difference between divergent and convergent strategies
  • Risk management
  • Having “perfect” knowledge
  • Using long trends and getting whipsawed in shorter trends
  • The asset class of trend following compared to the NASDAQ buy and hold, etc.
  • What’s changed about human nature through all the booms and busts
  • Insurance, hedging your risk, and the risk transference process
  • Asymmetrical leverage
  • Adjusting to new environments
  • How those that survive are the most adaptable to the environment
  • How trend following automatically adjusts to what’s happening

Listen to this episode:

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High Frequency Trading Hype

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hello Michael, out of interest as there is a lot of concern around HFT [high frequency trading] trading firms. What are your thoughts on their impact on the markets?

What’s market behavior? Buyers and sellers? What’s HFT? Buying and selling? Who programmed the HFT? Buyers and sellers?

Note: I don’t condone illegal behaviors, but if you can buy and sell, and if you can’t stop market rigging, and if you are not glued to a screen with day trading insanity, it doesn’t matter from a trend following perspective.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.