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Blast from the Past CATO White Paper on Long Term Capital Management

Kevin Dowd once offered great insight on Long Term Capital Management here.

A great reminder.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

No Fundamentals. Repeat, No Fundamentals

Always in the past, and always in the future, the gatekeepers of information will want investors to consider the yin and yang:

Funnymentals
Funnymentals

An understanding of that, a consideration of that, anything related to that–has zero to do with having the right entry, exit and position sizing rules.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
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About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 584: Listening with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Listening with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Listening with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Listening with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Cognitive dissidence
  • Zero sum game
  • Confirmation bias
  • Importance of track records
  • Checking out the data

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 572: Quant Hysterics with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Quant Hysterics with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Quant Hysterics with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Quant Hysterics with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Warren Buffett
  • Black box trading

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 554: The Yale Model with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Yale Model with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Yale Model with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue The Yale Model with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Yale Endowment
  • Portfolio management
  • Black box trading
  • Mean variance analysis
  • Harry Markowitz
  • Passive index
  • Forecasting

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“Nate Silver was by far the most accurate forecaster in the 2016 election”

Feedback in:

Nate Silver [my article that generated the feedback] was by far the most accurate forecaster in the 2016 election.

While most modelers pegged Clinton’s chances at greater than 90% (in some cases 99%), Silver had Trump as a 35.2% chance few days before the election. That was pretty darn good handicapping.

You are confusing prediction with handicapping, which is surprising given how much you have talked about poker and probabilities and black swans. If I were grading Nate Silver, I would give him an A+, because that is the grade he earned. I even heard him talk about the possibility of systemic failure in polling and got ridiculed.

What’s the point of his kind of political analysis? The usefulness? There is none. The vast majority of people (who know of him) think he has some predictive up or down power. That’s what he wants (likes), even if not accurate. Then people in the weeds can show up to say “oh no you missed his point, it’s his great handicapping skill.” Yeah, I see how clever this mathturbation is.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Nate Silver and the Problem of Prediction

Check out my new piece on “Nate Silver and the Problem of Prediction” over at the Observer:

Wall Street always overflows with Holy Grails—those predictions, strategies, secret formulas, and genius interpretations that promise otherworldly knowledge and riches if you just trust. They are most often delivered in the investment world through a black box—a closed system where the inputs and outputs are known, but the internal analytical workings are left top secret, only for the high priests’ consumption. Black box positioning goes far beyond markets, however. It is not surprising in a modern, interconnected age that when you take a very smart guy, rows of computers, proprietary formulas, and code that only the one smart guy can see, and then add a string of successful forecasts, boom—you end up with a nerdy, made-for-social-media superstar who suddenly makes prediction cool for the proletariat.

Nate Silver is that guy. Consider… [Read whole article]

Nate Silver
Nate Silver

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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