My guest today is Tim Koller, a partner in McKinsey’s Stamford, Connecticut office, where he leads a global team of corporate-finance expert consultants. Tim has served clients globally on corporate strategy and capital markets, mergers and acquisitions transactions, and strategic planning and resource allocation. For over 90 years, McKinsey & Company has helped corporations and organizations make substantial and lasting improvements in their performance. Through seven editions and 30 years, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, has served as the definitive reference for finance professionals, including investment bankers, financial analysts, CFOs and corporate managers, venture capitalists, and students and instructors in all areas of finance.
The topic is his book Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Recession and Recovery
The first half of 2020
Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies 1st Edition
Listener: Recently, I read three books you have written about Trend Following. Primarily, I am a value investor, but your book opened my eyes. Thank God for that. I am not saying value investing does not work but trend following is perhaps more important.
Thank you very much for having written your splendid books and educating me on Trend Following.
Covel: Thanks [Name]!
Listener: You are welcome Mr. Covel. I have actually bought another one of your books, Trend Commandments. It is very good. I am always surprised at people’s dating and money making strategy and how convinced they are that they have it right even if they are not getting results. To quote John Maynard Keynes who said “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do Sir?”. Unfortunately, people rarely change their mind.
I am surprised you don’t have higher book sales than you have presently. Your books are probably some of the most important works on investing I have read in the last few years. People are lemmings and they’ll easily forgo pots of gold if it means that they’ve stand out of the crowd. I am following you on Twitter now.
Covel: Thanks for the nice words! But I have sold over 200,000 books. My Turtle book is #3000 out of 10 million books on amazon right now. So actually some of best investing sales around.
Really enjoyed the interview with Tyler Cowen. As I was listening I was thinking about Detroit and Dan Gilbert. I don’t live there, but I do work for Quicken Loans. That’s probably impacted my perception of the city, but there are big things happening. I don’t feel like Gilbert is playing it safe. Maybe other billionaires do similar type things, but I don’t remember seeing it, especially where I live near Cincinnati.
Larry David is one guy who is totally OK with the unexpected. He wrote and starred in the hit show, Curb Your Enthusiasm. He wanted total control of writing the show and didn’t want HBO looking over his shoulder. However, the show has no script. The actors are comfortable going into the unknown and winging it. So much of our modern world is pre-packaged and scripted down to the last syllable. Larry David knows that life is all about the surprise, and people value that surprise factor.
What do these examples have in common with the stock market? Markets are unpredictable. Yes, it is necessary to have a game plan but with constant unexpected changes, you need to know what to do when things deviate from the plan. Chaos exists, there is no getting around it. To be successful in the game you must look past the chaos and know how to profit from it.
I just want to say thanks for all of the work you’ve put in over the years. You’ve helped me a great deal not just in learning about trend following, but also meeting people within the space.
I remember reading Trend Following back in 2007 after I graduated college; learning about John Henry, Seykota, Jerry Parker, etc. Little did I know that I’d become friendly with some of these guys. It’s all still so surreal and very cool.
About a month ago, after [meeting] a very well known trend following trader, he decides to invest $[xxx] in my fund. For a guy like me managing $[small] millions, that’s a big f’n deal!
I don’t think this could’ve been possible without the work you’ve done, so I just want to thank you for doing it.
Let me know when you come back to the states. Let’s run some sprints and have a catch.
After knocking out a ton of the first 200 episodes to get the basics of trend following and implementing my own strategy based upon those lessons, in the next 300 or so I started cherry picking the lifestyle episodes. I wanted to let you know how much I’ve enjoyed them, despite not being financial. Meditation, bright line eating, the practicing mind, flow, the Basecamp guy, Tuft and Needle mattresses, mental toughness, Olympic shooting, pre-suasion, cyber security, feng shui, memory techniques, personal safety, chess grandmasters, Ayn Rand, Tim Ferris et all, have all been very interesting. I’ve even read several of the books after hearing the podcasts.
Keep up the good work, and feel free to keep tossing such episodes in. They’re great. Also, you should do an in-depth yoga episode. Or two.
I just wanted thank you for your work and your dedication.
I listened to two of your audiobooks (Turtletrader & Trend Following) and now follow your podcast. I just finished listening to Sunday’s podcast with Peter Borish and I felt compelled to just send you a short thank you. I’ve always wanted to pursue trading professionally (long story, have a connection to one of those famous traders you’ve mentioned in your work) and I’m finally in a space where I can trade from a retail account. I’ve been trying to figure out what I should do next and your interviews have helped me rethink what my options are as a person with the passion for markets but not working in the space exclusively. Anyway, I just wanted to thank you and let you know if there is anything I can do for you, please let me know. I’ll work for free, if you need an extra pair of eyes to review some writing or something else. I’m not where I want to be but I wouldn’t be where I am now if it weren’t for all the people who gave their time freely to help me and I want to pay it forward.
Thanks again for taking the risk and leap a faith to pursue your own path.