Before I begin, first of all I’d like to thank you for the massive amount of information you make available. I’ve read your book Trend Following (including the new edition) and also The Complete Turtle Trader – both books have helped to clarify the trend following concept for me.
Another huge thank you for your podcasts. I listen to this often, and I find it really keeps me motivated to go on building my trading-business (I’m planning to only trade my own money) from the ground up. There are also many other helpful things in there – on more than just trading. Thanks, and keep up the good work!
I just thought I’d mention that I’ve come across your information through Van Tharp‘s home study course-materials and books – and I’ve been using his stuff a lot to get myself in the right frame of mind for this business. I’ve found that the trend following concept fits my beliefs the closest out of all the other concepts. In saying that, I’m also an avid investor in property and real estate – where I’ve found that my strategies are actually a mix of Value/Arbitrage/Income and trend following wrapped up all in one.
I have been paper trading this system in recent times, and it’s not too bad – I’ve been whipsawed a lot, but right now I’m actually short quite a few positions and it’s looking promising – whilst others are all panicking and running for cover, I’m actually enjoying the downturn… even looking forward to it!
Safi Bahcall is an American technologist, business executive, and author. He has presented at over 130 banking conferences, investor events, and medical meetings around the world, as well as at leading academic institutions. His book “Loonshots: How to Nurture the Crazy Ideas That Win Wars, Cure Diseases, and Transform Industries” is out.
Safi grew up with parents who were highly acclaimed physicists. He was indoctrinated with the mindset of looking at the world and asking, “Why?” Even to this day, he has those discussions of asking, “Why” with his parents. It has given him an inquisitive perspective – always looking at things from multiple angles.
What is a loonshot? Loonshots are how big achievements, money, fame and recognition are produced. They are leaps of faith grounded in asking good questions. In keeping a questioning mindset you may find the twist that gives you the answer to what everyone else is missing. This asking mindset can be applied across all fields – military, government, technology, medicine, politics, social media, etc. Safi exposes some of these loonshots with examples going back to Alexander Graham Bell, WWII, Apple and many others.
I don’t even know where to start, but let me start first by saying thank you. Thank you for the time you put into hosting the numerous great interviews we enjoy.
I live in Romford, United Kingdom and started trading in 2011. I consider myself a contrarian, so luckily it came natural to me that trend following was the way forward, and this idea was strengthened by the same patterns I observed repeating themselves at very random times. Through great minds like Van Tharp, I realized the important things such as bet size and staying solvent until the pattern re-appeared.
Fast forward a few years later I stumbled on your Youtube videos, which led me to research further, leading to your book and then on to your podcast. And I have learned so much not just with regards to the markets/ trading but many other general subjects which contributes to my overall learning and self-improvement.
But here is where you have made the most impact on me. A little while ago, I went out one night with a friend and we randomly decided to drop by in a casino which was in a mall we hung out. I had never been inside a casino and was impressed by the very luxurious environment. I eventually got attracted to the game of roulette where lots of money was won and lost and I must say I immediately noticed the same sort of decision-making that is common in my own world of trading. These include adding to losers, no strategy/game plan, pure GREED when things go their way and ultimately a complete lack of money management. I was fascinated at the similarities, I went away that night longing to study this game. Before long I began to visit the same casino regularly, never to play but observe, and it was at this point that I discovered that patterns do exist. I immediately knew that if the patterns were actually there, given the high odds of the game, it could be extremely profitable. After collecting 11,237, session samples over 4 years (using online casinos), I was no longer guessing, because the data I had collected was evident.
I would never have had the patience to carry on with this research over a long period of time if it weren’t for your podcasts and the many guests who in some cases had beaten black jack. The problem however is the general consensus is that Roulette cannot be beaten and I disagree. It cannot be beaten if you play it randomly (just as the markets can’t be beaten long-term if one approached it randomly). In one of your monologues you covered some guy who made a fortune on horse racing in Hong Kong, and that inspired me so much that I kept going in my effort to collect sufficient data.
The work that I have done with this game in my opinion is revolutionary and I would never have done it without the skills that trading required that I develop, but most importantly the many Michael Covel podcasts I often listened to in the background whilst collecting data and testing a strategy to reach my conclusion before implementing.
Thanks for all you do. I couldn’t thank you enough.
Uh, roulette is going to be tough. The odds are against you.
I believe my biggest challenge is finding a quality strategy. I have only been in the stock market for a little over a year and have spent most of my time on free education and books. I know that this will not be enough and most of my learning will come by experience. I plan to purchase education courses and recently discovered your books and courses. I like your approach of the bigger picture and price only. I value businesses for my career and can’t find and a connection between the business cash flow and price that would lead to successful trading. If I had one question it would be if I purchase your course would I be left with a strategy to trade with? I know that you cannot guarantee success. Having an educated approach to the market is what I’m seeking.
I’m just starting out after watching Adam Khoo’s “Trade Like a Casino for Consistent Profits” on youtube. I’m a 23-year old federal government mail clerk on a career path with little to no room for advancement, so I need to increase my income. I actually started out watching Jaspreet Singh’s entrepreneurial and investment videos and Adam Khoo’s videos came up as suggested, so I started listening to them while I was doing other things around the house. Before that trading seemed just a crap shoot or something only people chosen to work in the CME could make money doing, so I never considered it. But after listening to several of Adam’s videos I decided to sign up for one his courses on his website and started a gofundme page to get the $1,500 to do it. But while I’m waiting to come up with the money to take his course, I’ve listened to Alexander Elder’s Trading for a Living a few times on youtube and purchased the hard cover of The Complete Turtle Trader and Trend Following off of Amazon and began reading the 2nd one.
Oh, I just read your question again. My biggest challenges I’ve faced trading have been my initial perception of it as something only an elite few got mentored in and shown how to make money doing it and that it took millions of dollars to do and coming up with money to get started. I did start a Robinhood account with $300 though but their customer support was so horrible I thought what if I had thousands in an account with them and needed help? So I withdrew my $300 bucks. Plus I’m not a hot shot MBA or math guy fresh out of college with a 4.0 GPA who people would hire for trading careers. Man, I can’t keep to a topic can I? So my biggest challenges have been my own perceptions, lack of information and lack of mentors I guess.
Really enjoyed your last podcast about Cramer and yoga, which I believe is the perfect addition to systematic trading. Not only it’s great brain flossing but also a good way to being in the moment and to letting go of any futile predictions. If you happen to be in HK end of this month then would love to casually meet up! Cheers!
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