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Ep. 607: Robert Carver Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Carver
Robert Carver

 

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Robert Carver got his start in finance working at trend following firm AHL in 2001 during his final year of college. He was introduced to quantitative trading while at AHL and for the first time began thinking of finance in a systematic way. He later went back to AHL, working there from 2006-2013. His newest book is “Smart Portfolios: A Practical guide to building and maintaining intelligent investment portfolios.”

It took a lot of research and digging for Robert to decipher which financial tools available to traders were appropriate for him. He knew he was not the only trader with this problem so he decided to write a book laying out what he had found through his research. Robert gives actionable tips and guidelines for others who may need help finding what trading instruments are right for them. Robert also wanted “Smart Portfolios” to be a book for the average investor. He wrote it in a way that is not over complicated. Any trader, new or professional, can pick it up and find it useful.

Robert bases portfolio selection around three questions: 1. What should you invest in? 2. How much of your capital goes into those investments? 3. Do you make changes to your portfolio along the way? Whenever he receives questions from people, those questions usually fall into one of the above categories. There is never perfection when trying to predict how a portfolio will perform but Robert stresses that if you start your investing answering the above questions, you will be on the right track. After the right portfolio and financial tools have been selected it’s necessary to understand different types of returns. Michael and Robert finish the podcast discussing differences between geometric and arithmetic returns.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Portfolio selection
  • Benchmarks
  • International investing
  • Fundamental trading
  • Warren Buffett trading
  • Expected average performance
  • Leveraging a portfolio
  • Luck vs. Skill
  • Venture capitalism

“Most people probably spend much less time thinking about their portfolio’s than they do thinking about getting their car fixed.” – Robert Carver

Mentions & Resources:

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Trend Following Machines Cash in—Again

All these years later, all these stories later, and CNBC still has a difficult time explaining trend following to the masses. One good excerpt:

Funds managed by ISAM, Cantab, AHL, Systematica and others produced double-digit gains over the first three months of 2015, according to private performance figures obtained by CNBC. “Trend followers and other macro investors clearly outperformed,” said Robert Christian, head of research at K2 Advisors and Franklin Templeton Solutions. “What’s carried people is just classic, good old trend following.”

Note: ISAM is Larry Hite’s shop. One of my favorite no-nonsense trend following pros.

Ep. 238: Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman
Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman

Michael Covel speaks with Larry Hite and Alex Greyserman today on the podcast. Hite is a hedge fund manager and is one of the forefathers of system trading. He was famously featured in the Market Wizards book. A few years ago he started ISAM with Stanley Fink. Greyserman has 25 years of experience in the CTA industry, and was originally hired by Larry Hite at Mint. Greyserman is Chief Scientist at ISAM (PhD in Statistics). He is also a professor at Columbia University. Covel, Larry Hite, and Greyserman discuss Singapore, and Covel’s recent excursions in Asia; how the game has stayed the same despite zero interest rate policy; what people are missing when they say “trend following is dead”; how you’ll never get perfection; their 800 year study, the premise, and what was found out; measuring human nature; the difference between divergent and convergent strategies; risk management; having “perfect” knowledge; using long trends and getting whipsawed in shorter trends; the asset class of trend following compared to the NASDAQ buy and hold, etc.; what’s changed about human nature through all the booms and busts; insurance, hedging your risk, and the risk transference process; asymmetrical leverage; adjusting to new environments; how those that survive are the most adaptable to the environment; and how trend following automatically adjusts to what’s happening. More: www.isam.com.

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