I recently turned 55 and have always been fascinated by the markets. Trading appeals to me because I am a strong believer in mathematics, probabilities, and systems-based decision-making.
Over the years, I have built a successful career in real estate and retail businesses, and my long-term goal is to generate income through trading as I transition away from traditional business activities and into retirement.
I have been involved in the markets for many years, primarily as a long-term buy-and-hold investor. Over the past five years, however, I have devoted significant time to learning options trading and swing trading. While I believe I have developed a solid understanding of market behavior, trading systems, and risk management, my biggest challenges have been discipline and strategy hopping.
I enjoy being active and engaged, which can make it difficult to sit on my hands and allow a proven process to play out. As a result, I have been working hard to simplify my approach and become more systematic.
Recently, I have been using AI tools to help me develop trading rules, structure my decision-making process, and track performance metrics so I can determine whether I truly have an edge and understand my expectancy over a large sample of trades.
I have always been interested in trend-following approaches such as the Turtle Trading system. One of the primary scans I follow in Thinkorswim tracks stocks making new 20-day highs, and I continue to study breakout and momentum-based strategies. My current focus is on simplifying my trading, reducing unnecessary complexity, and building a repeatable process that I can confidently follow for years to come.
I look forward to learning more about your approach, what you offer, and whether it may fit my goals as I continue developing as a trader.
I am writing regarding your Mastery Elite 2026 program. I have been researching trend following for several years, which has ultimately led me to your work. I have read many of your books and listened to your interviews. These experiences influenced me to participate in your course and absorb the knowledge of your library.
In the past, I had created a budget dedicated for Mastery, my original purchasing date would have been on July 10, which is my upcoming payday. When I saw your new opportunity and a faster way of getting where I want to be, I immediately had to write this email for you.
Currently I have only part of the full fee. The remaining part is coming in on almost the end of application period (upcoming payday) and the participation is capped. I do not want to miss this opportunity because of a timing issue, which brings me to ask you.
Would it be possible to reserve a place?
I would be able to pay the program on July 10. I am fully committed to making the most of the program and embrace trend following. I have years of individual research behind me and I am passionate about widening my knowledge in this topic. I believe I could be a candidate that you would be looking for in Mastery Elite 2026 and maybe in the future this email would be the first talking point in your next podcast.
Look at the KOSPI. South Korea’s main stock index. I am not going to tell you a story about it. I am going to point at the chart and let price do the talking, because price is the only thing in this business that has never lied to anyone.
Over the past year that index ran from around 3,300 to more than 9,000. It nearly tripled. Sit with that number. An entire national stock market, close to tripling in a year.
Now the question that matters. Who called it? Which forecaster, which strategist, which face on television sat down last summer and told you to back up the truck on Korean equities for a triple? Name one. You cannot, because almost nobody did. The move did not wait for permission and it did not wait for consensus. It just went, the way big trends always go, while the experts were busy explaining why it could not.
Here is the part the prediction crowd will never understand. You did not need to call it. Not the start, not the size, not the reason. A trend follower long that market rode the entire move without a single forecast. Price broke out, you got long. Price kept rising, you stayed long and added. The trend did the heavy lifting. Your only job was to follow it and not talk yourself out of the position every time it paused.
Now look at the right edge of the same chart. The market that handed you a triple broke lower, hard, down to 6,820, with one session shedding more than six percent. And I promise you the questions are already flying. Is this the top? Is it a dip to buy? Is the Korea story still intact?
Wrong questions. Every one of them.
The trend follower does not predict the top. He never did. He does not need to know whether this is a pause or the end, because his exit is not an opinion. It is a rule. A trailing stop lifts him out when the trend gives way, and he keeps the gains the run handed him instead of riding them back down on hope. The story sellers will be along any minute now to tell you the fundamentals have not changed, that this is a gift, that you should love it lower. You have heard that song before. It ends the same way every time.
So what happens next with the KOSPI? I have no idea, and neither does anyone else. Here is the beautiful part. I do not have to know. If the trend resumes higher, price will tell me and I get back on. If it keeps falling, I am already out and watching from dry land. Two outcomes, one plan, zero predictions.
That is the whole game, and it is sitting right there in one picture. The trend gave. The trend is taking it back from the people who overstayed. The only ones who keep what the trend handed out are those who followed it up with a plan for getting off. Everyone else is holding a story and a loss.
Stop forecasting. Start following.
Stay systematic.
P.S. The Trend Following Mastery course walks you through the entry, the trailing exit, and the discipline to sit through the pauses that shake everyone else out. The Bull, Bear & Black Swan Report puts that same thinking to work every month, research instead of prediction. Both at trendfollowing.com.
Chart: KOSPI Composite Index ($KSIC), Barchart.com.
My guest today is Cullen Roche. He is a financial executive, author, and investor. He is also the Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Orcam Financial Group and Discipline Funds, a financial planning firm that focuses on holistic financial advice.
The topic is his book Your Perfect Portfolio: The Ultimate Guide to Using the World’s Most Powerful Investing Strategies.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Investment strategies and portfolio construction
Trend following vs. buy-and-hold investing
Rules-based strategies
Government intervention, markets, and economic incentives
