Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Michael talk all things trend following today using Niels’ podcast as the starting point for discussion.
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen is Managing Director of DUNN Capital (Europe). DUNN Capital (Europe) is a Swiss entity with which DUNN has an exclusive consulting agreement to perform business development for DUNN’s programs in Europe. Niels has been in the managed futures business since 1990, holding management positions at several leading CTAs: GNI Fund Management, Chesapeake, Beach Capital and Rho Asset Management, the last two of which he co-founded. He is the founder and host of the podcast Top Traders Unplugged.
I’ve been in contact with you before through email and always look forward to your podcasts along with those 20-30 minute comments segments. I haven’t listened to Tony Robbins in 20-25 years, but they seem to echo the same tone. Love it.
BTW, I’m the guy who sent you a PDF of my trend following system across about 45 assets about a year ago. I’m a federal employee and feel that I’m moments away from handing in my resignation letter. After about a year of constantly thinking about leaving my job every 10 minutes and waking up in the middle of the night feeling trapped in my position, I’ve come to realize that my big “hang-up” is whether or not to sell my home for additional trading capital to top-off my business, or rent it out for future guaranteed monthly payment through a property manager.
I know you can’t offer financial advise, and I’d never hold you to anything, however I’d like to ask a question: When you moved out of the US, did you leave any property behind? Or, did you just “bug-out” (as you’ve once noted) and leave for the Asian country with minimal possessions in tow?
If you wish to not answer this, that’s no problem. I respect that. Could you reply with: “Pass”. If you’d like to reply, any thoughts would be appreciated.
My trend following platform (stuck in simulation mode) is kicking ass without me hitting new highs after an absolutely gorgeous 30% drawdown, and time is wasting.
While this trend following boat is sailing without me, as I ponder to swim after it, I can’t tell if I’m diving into the English Channel, staring off the edge of a rocky cliff, jumping out of a plane, hitting an eject button, on a capsule set for a no-return trip to Mars or digging my own grave. It’s fu@%in’ scary.
I have listened to just about every podcast that you have recorded. In many you mention how college is not worth the price of admission. I always agreed with you, but it wasn’t until my oldest now a junior in high school, did I realize how high the cost of admission is!
The system is broken, and has been for some time. Forgiving students of their debts isn’t the answer. It doesn’t change the cost of entry. I live in NJ and our state schools aren’t a bargain. The cost in state is the same as an out of state student at another program. The short of it is, it will cost 50k to go to a state program and 70k to a private. So you are talking a minimum 200k and a max 280k for an undergrad degree!!! Not many entry level positions will pay enough to recover this type of cost. If the student goes into debt to pay this, the debt will be similar to a mortgage!
Heaven forbid that you have more than one child. We started planning at birth, but could not keep up with the inflation of tuition. Costs have basically doubled in the past 10-12 years. I don’t know what the answer is, maybe some kind of certificate program is a better way to go, instead of getting a bachelor’s degree. Online makes the most sense to me, but most 18 year olds need to live on their own for a bit to grow the fuck up.
I am not sure what this rant will accomplish, not even sure why I started it. But you are correct the system is completely broken. It needs a drastic over haul. I don’t know what that over haul is, but something needs to be done.
First off, I’m glad I found your site because it’s hard to find people who trade in your style and you seem to be the mecca of all trend following information. Been listening to your podcast and love it.
I started out as an [name] member, using the OA style of trading (essentially remaining “balanced” at all times and using lots of strategies that don’t actually work very well. like iron condors and iron butterflies). I came to trend following through my own backtesting, seeing that it was the only strategy that actually worked. Try convincing the folks on the OA forum that it works though! They don’t want to listen.
Anyway, I’m curious to know if you trade options, and what strategies you use. I use credit spreads exclusively.
My main trend indicator right now is the linear slope of the moving average and it seems to work alright. But I have only had success on upward trending markets. Can’t find a good bearish strategy.
Anyway, wanted to reach out and if anything let you know I’m on board with what you’re doing and looking forward to learning more through the podcasts and any other info you can provide.
Have you considered trend following? It’s not a matter of having a bull or bear strategy, but rather you need a strategy that works for whatever the situation unfolding.
I think my sticking point is that I overrule my stops thinking that I know where prices are going based the fundamentals/macro data that l look at. I work in the dealing room of a bank and the fundamental/macro narrative is very pervasive.
You might think you know what it takes to lead a happier life… more money, a better job, or Instagram-worthy vacations. You’re dead wrong. Yale professor Dr. Laurie Santos has studied the science of happiness and found that many of us do the exact opposite of what will truly make our lives better. Based on the psychology course she teaches at Yale–the most popular class in the university’s 300-year history–Laurie takes Michael through the latest scientific research and shares some surprising and inspiring stories that will change the way we all think about happiness.
Bio: Laurie Santos is a professor of psychology and cognitive science at Yale University. She is also the Director of Yale’s Comparative Cognition Laboratory, Director of Yale’s Canine Cognition Lab, and the Head of Yale residential college Silliman College. She has been a featured TED speaker, and has been listed in Popular Science Magazine as one of their “Brilliant 10” young minds in 2007, and in Time magazine as a “Leading Campus Celebrity” in 2013. In January 2018, her course titled, “Psychology and the Good Life” became the most popular course in Yale’s history, with approximately one-fourth of Yale’s undergraduates enrolled
I have been on about a 20 month journey of becoming financially literate and learning about investing and trading. I did my first trades (options – bull put spreads and bear call spreads) using what I learned from a guy named Phil Town and his Rule 1 course, but I stopped when I thought I needed to learn more. Since then, each next step has seemed to present itself as I finished a certain section of learning. The last 5 months have been all about working on my psychology using Van Tharp’s books and his Peak Performers home study course. His course taught be about my trading style and showed me that I needed to be out of the market, so I got out. His book also taught me that my style fits more with the Trend Following style of trading than any of the others, including Value investing/trading. Your Trend Following book presented itself to me a few weeks ago. I’m almost finished with the book, and I’ve been gaining more and more confidence by listening to your podcasts and going through your materials. Right now, my biggest challenge is on the technical aspect of developing a trading system, but from what I’m reading on your website, you seem have the answer to that in your Flagship course. I’ve gone from an overview level and am now getting into the specialized area of how I will go about becoming a successful financial free investor-trader. I’m watching your 55 minute video now as well.
I am actually thinking of switching to trend following that’s why I’ve been searching about it and your book came up. I came across your website and subscribe to it. From the things I’ve gathered I am convinced that I should try out building a Trend following system, but I will still need time to do it. I need to schedule everything.
Dear Michael, I am very interested in your Trend Following concept. I just bought your book, Trend Following. I have two small accounts of $3000 and $10,000 I plan to use to follow your concepts. Are these big enough accounts to use your rules on Trend Following?
Information on the Trend Following™ network of sites may not be copied, reprinted, or redistributed without written permission from Michael Covel and or Trend Following (but written permission is easily and typically granted). The purpose of this website is to encourage the free exchange of ideas across investments, risk, economics, psychology, human behavior, entrepreneurship and innovation. The entire contents of this website are based upon the opinions of Michael Covel, unless otherwise noted. Individual articles are based upon the opinions of the respective author, who may retain copyright as noted. The information on this website is intended as a sharing of knowledge and information from the research and experience of Michael Covel and his community. Information contained herein is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources. Trend Following™ markets and sells various investment research and investment information products. Readers are solely responsible for selection of stocks, currencies, options, commodities, futures contracts, strategies, and monitoring their brokerage accounts. Trend Following™, its subsidiaries, employees, and agents do not solicit or execute trades or give investment advice, and are not registered as brokers or advisors with any federal or state agency. Trend Following™, TurtleTrader®, TurtleTrader.com® are trademarks/service marks of Trend Following. Other trademarks and service marks appearing on the Trend Following network of sites may be owned by Trend Following or by other parties including third parties not affiliated with Trend Following™.
The classic text ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ by Edwin Lefèvre PDF
“If you want the chance for big returns in bull, bear and black swan markets, THIS is where you want to be. But this ain’t clipping coupons. No risk, no return.”