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“I started running while listening to your latest podcast, the monologue, and boy did I get it…”

Feedback in:

We are still in the game, with some losses and some gains; currently at break-even after a drawdown period. All is well.

Yesterday, the price took me out of a trade that already had a stop-loss set at break-even. Without delving into details, a gap at market open brought the price below my break-even level, leading me to sell immediately.

The frustrating thing about this is that apparently the worst-case scenario would have been to exit with no profit or loss. However, the unexpected happened, resulting in a 2% loss. Despite being the same story, this time I felt more demotivated, as if I were stuck in the mud. Nevertheless, I continued with the process, as there was nothing else to do.

This morning, after setting the stop-losses for my current positions, I went for a run, I usually alternate between weights and running as exercise. But today, I needed something more intense; I wanted to feel alive and purposeful. I started running while listening to your latest podcast, the monologue, and boy did I get it, crystal clear.

It helped me refocus on what truly matters: the process;
Process vs outcome:

– Bad process + good results = dumb luck
– Bad process + bad results = deserve failure <- here I was with my bad process a year ago.
– Good process + good results = Success
– Good process + bad results = bad break <- here I am currently.

I don’t expect a response to this email; I just wanted to share these thoughts with someone I know understands.
Having some kind of record helps keep me going.

There’s still a lot I don’t understand, but I am working on it.

Thank you for your constant participation.

Fernando S.

Welcome.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“If trend following is so successful why do you sell products about how to do it…”

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Michael,

Biggest challenges I have faced in trading are trust and skepticism! Seems like whenever I come upon a new investment “system” I’m the last one to the party before the lights go out. I figure if trend following trading advice is making it to a cubicle jockey at my level, then it must be too late.

And no disrespect intended: If trend following is so successful why do you sell products about how to do it? Why not just keep it in house and bank all the money you want instead of dealing with little fish like me?

I’m still interested as there is nothing new under the sun and human psychology doesn’t really change. So maybe there is something to this.

Take care,
Matt V.

I didn’t always know trend following. The famed Nobel winner Richard Feynman says it best: “If you want to master something, teach it. The more you teach, the better you learn. Teaching is a powerful tool to learning.” You can take advantage of your good fortune or not.

On skeptics: read.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Which futures markets work well with using price channels to identify entries and exits…”

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Hi Michael,

Just came across this article in the June 2024 issue of Stocks and Commodities magazine:

Identifying Entry And Exit Levels
Developing A Trend-Following Strategy For Futures, Based On Price Channels
by [name}

Which futures markets work well with using price channels to identify entries and exits?
Here’s a test to find out using an example trend following strategy.

Ben L.

A one answer piecemeal from me is not how I roll. Start here!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 1288: Ilya Strebulaev Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Ilya Strebulaev
Ilya Strebulaev

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My guest today is Ilya Strebulaev, a Russian-American financial economist, researcher, author, and speaker with expertise in venture capital, startups, and corporate innovation. He has been a professor at the Stanford Graduate School of Business since 2004. From 2018 to 2022 he was on the board of directors of Yandex, the Russian equivalent of Google. Ilya co-developed a framework that asses the value of private venture capital (VC) backed companies. His research also includes studies on the decision-making of startup investors, the organization and design of VC and corporate VC units, and the importance of venture capital in innovation and the economy.

The topic is his co-authored book The Venture Mindset: How to Make Smarter Bets and Achieve Extraordinary Growth.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Venture capital
  • Risk and uncertainty
  • Decision making
  • Home runs vs. strikeouts
  • Counterintuitive principles
  • Applying venture mindset on business
  • Cultural differences on the venture mindset

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 1287: Don’t F Around with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Episode 1287
Episode 1287

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Please enjoy my monologue Don’t F Around with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

“Price without a reference to volume or momentum…”

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Price without a reference to volume or momentum or any other factor that would constitute other than price alone?

3 widgets, with prices of 10, 20 and 30. I cannot know the 10 is a good buy w/o reference to the 20 and 30. There are ways to know of the 10 being a great price. For example, I read the news today, about a widget that made the grade and widgets were advertised at 20 and 30, so 10 is a good price. If we buy it at 10 it is sure to go p to 20 or 30, i.e., the price will get momentum and more buyers (volume).

Sorry Michael, but I will read further about price alone. Didn’t Brian Shannon operate on price alone, in multiple time frames, but now uses VWAP and volume at price?

You don’t describe classic trend following. More.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“If you don’t stand for something, you will fall for anything…”

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Hi Michael,

My biggest challenge has been really knowing what to use to discern what is likely to go up and what is not.

I am a 71-year-old blind guy and although I can do my own trading, part of my problem is that I obviously can’t read charts.

I subscribe to a crapload of newsletters, and those guys are all like hucksters, everyone swearing that their recommendations are the best since they know the secrets of Wall Street that no one else knows.

Whenever I get an email with a subject line that says “shocking” or “stunning,” I delete the message, because I want truth not hype.

I am stunned and shocked to exhaustion, and I want real honest good recommendations based on sound principles, not some stranger’s made up system that has no viable reliability or validity.

As the saying goes, if you don’t stand for something, you will fall for anything—and that has been me.

Trend following sounds like it truly makes sense, but I need to know if it is something I am able to pursue.

So, my three main questions are these:

1. Is chart reading so critical to trend following that I shouldn’t do it as a blind person?

2. If this will be too difficult for me, are there automated systems or trend funds that make recommendations designed to assist someone in the automatic implementation of trend following principles?

3. Lastly, I love options trading, but here too, the market is rife with folks who know it all and of course each one has the only system to follow. Can trend following be done with options as well?

Sorry for asking so many questions, but would welcome any advice you might have given your long history in TF, which honestly makes a lot more sense to me than the complex and confusing fundamental and supply/demand analyses these other folks conduct all the time. I am no brilliant economist, and I bet lots of these newsletter sellers aren’t either.

Any thoughts are very gratefully welcome.

With much gratitude,
Don B.

1. Chart reading is not trend following.
2. I can recommend software options to go with my Flagship training.
3. You can trade LEAPs options. I teach how.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.