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Ep. 717: Follow the Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Covel
Michael Covel

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Trust but verify. Do you listen to media, teachers, etc. and blindly trust the information given? When listening to information or insight it is ok to trust, but you must verify. The vast majority of people choose to never second guess the source.

Michael’s first aha moment with looking outside the box was discovering the turtle story. There were a few things that caught his interest about the story–the trading experiment was seemingly repeatable, that systematic kind of trading was teachable and doable for anyone, and many of those involved in the experiment had moved on and made fortunes. Discovering trend following through the turtles led to many other avenues for Michael, including this podcast. Michael shares some of those insights learned over the years, including what he has learned during the evolution of this podcast.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Turtle story
  • Bayesian mindset
  • Going with the flow
  • Open to new opportunities
  • Trend following philosophy
  • Holy grails

Mentions & Resources:

Ep. 716: Daniel Crosby Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Daniel Crosby
Daniel Crosby

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Daniel Crosby is a psychologist, behavioral finance expert, asset manager and author of several books. His most recent book is “The Behavioral Investor.” Daniel’s background in behavioral psychology has taught him to look at markets as a backdrop to view human behavior in a real world setting.

Why did Daniel decide to write his latest book? What was his motivation? Daniel is a regular speaker at conferences. At those speaking engagements he was continuously hearing misinformation presented about behavioral biases in trading. He wanted to set the record straight about how to tap into emotions and explain how much personalities really play into trading.

As a psychologist who works in the markets, Daniel gets real time information on how people are feeling by looking at how price movements fluctuate. Daniel cites a study showing that 94% of the time rules beat out discretion in the markets. Betting on your “gut” almost always leads to ruin. Trading off rules doesn’t just lead to a better trading record, it also leads to less brain damage and heartburn. Daniel found about 200 different biases that can harm up trading. Within those 200 biases Daniel has created four main categories: ego, emotion, attention, and conservatism. He shows through facts and data how systematic trading is better on the pocket book as well as fostering a healthier lifestyle.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Functional fictions
  • Evolution
  • Human behavior in market price
  • Loss aversion
  • Behavior bias
  • Contrarian perspective

“Data without theory and theory without data produce spurious results.” – Daniel Crosby

Mentions & Resources:

Ep. 715: Ann Mei Chang Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ann Mei Chang
Ann Mei Chang

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Ann Mei Chang is author of “LEAN IMPACT: How to Innovate for Radically Greater Social Good.” She was a technology executive with more than 20 years of experience at Google, Apple, and Intuit, as well as a range of startups before she pivoted her career into the private, social and non-profit sectors. She now works with companies around the world to help streamline growth and innovation.

Innovation is necessary for any company to grow. Ann helps non-profits and more risk-adverse companies properly take risks to improve their process. From global development to technology companies – there is a lot of uncertainty to combat against, grants to be filled as well as shareholders to appease. When tackling big issues investors and the public want to see tangible results quickly. Ann shows a balance between thinking big, keeping an eye out for what can be done better and keeping track of ever changing demand. Audacious goals are important, but you also need a process and plan of what is going to get you to that audacious goal.

Innovation is not only about creating the latest new thing, but rather taking something that is already created and making it better. Google wasn’t the first search engine, but they made it better. Facebook wasn’t the first social network, but they improved on it and made the experience better. Ann gives the example of a 700 year old invention – eyeglasses. With how long eyeglasses have been around, there is still about 2.5 billion people without access to them. Vision Spring is a non-profit that was created to reach these people without access. Vision Spring’s initial business plan wasn’t reaching as many people as planned and money was running out quickly. With continuously being open to making pivots in their business model, they continue to grow and reach larger and larger amounts of people. It is all about adaptability and innovation within whatever company your are at – non-profit to big technology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Political grandstanding
  • Process vs. outcome
  • Understanding your base customer
  • Projecting bias
  • Non-profit work

Mentions & Resources:

Michael Covel’s Mind Food for Thought: November 29th Edition

Posted on by Michael Covel

Food for thought:

Enjoy.

“When will people learn that price is all you need?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Michael,

It amazes me watching CNBC and Bloomberg today and seeing tons of analysts giving their opinions on why oil has dropped over 8% [recently]. All of their reasons make no sense and sounds like they are pulling it out of their a** (pardon my French) lol. Price has been showing that the trend is down since the middle of October. When will people learn that price is all you need.

Thank you for all the information and resources you have provided over the years. Also, congratulations on passing the #700 mark for your podcasts. You will always have me as a loyal listener.

Always allowing price to show me the way,
[Name]

Thanks!