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My guest today is Moritz Seibert, Founder & CEO at Takahē Capital, a systematic investment manager targeting absolute returns through resilient trading strategies. He is also the former CEO/CIO at Munich Re Investment Partners, and the co-host at Top Traders Unplugged. He is an experienced quant trader across equities, commodities, bonds, FX, digital assets, and liquid alternatives. 

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

• Changes in Trend Following strategies
• Risk management and volatility
• The appetites of different generations of investors
• Performance-based v. management-fee-based models

Mentions & Resources:

• Moritz Seibert
• Takahē Capital

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Jump in!

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I am a trend following trader and entrepreneur based in Miami and Toronto.

I have to tell you that you have become a mentor to me, even though we haven’t met. You have helped give me the tools, conviction, and confidence to believe in trend following and put it into practice. Admittedly, it took me a long time to fight through the noise, particularly because I spent 10 years on an institutional equity desk in NY and Toronto. Ironically, a traditional commission-based institutional broker/investment bank is the absolute worst place to gain confidence as a trend following trader. The brokerage house is all about “the story,” and predicting the future, never even touching risk management, position sizing, or exit strategies.

I first bought your TurtleTrader course around 2000 after devouring the website and wanting more, but I was 26 and on my way up the corporate ladder at Merrill Lynch. My ego always got in the way, and I didn’t have enough quiet time to think, read, and gain the confidence that is so critical. I also was still searching for the “holy grail,” not knowing I’d already found it.

Years later, I picked up my study of trend following again after rereading “Reminiscences of a Stock Operator.” I then read your books and ordered your current course. I now turn to the podcasts when I want ideas refreshed or motivation, and I look forward to hearing your interviews.

This message could not have asked for a better messenger, Michael. You kick ass with your podcasts; you are honest and direct and even funny at times. I’ve even got my girlfriend to listen to a few. The episode with Vernon Smith was particularly powerful. Putting this out there for free is mind-blowing, and I’m very grateful to you for putting out such an incredible body of work. You are affecting people’s lives, and I thank you for affecting mine.

Okay, enough smoke up your ass.

Tim Ferriss should be on your podcast and/or you should be on his. In his most recent episode (63), he talks about his investing style toward the end and why he is scared to invest in public markets. He can’t deal with the ups and downs of staring at rising and falling equity, so he only invests in startups. What struck me is that he is basically following a trend following risk model in his angel investing: he accepts that less than 50% will be winners and diversifies with the assumption that the winners will more than pay for the losers. Considering Tim’s expertise is in breaking down and mastering skills that have scientific and mathematical track records, it seems to me that he would be interested in your work. I find it hard to imagine why anyone who wants to make money in the markets wouldn’t be interested in your work. Anyway, worth exploring even just as a reference in your own podcast.

My question is on constructing a model and automating a fairly basic trading system. Is there a data feed you recommend and/or software that can generate signals with a data feed? Do you recommend any particular broker that is very reliable, execution-based, with competitive fees and an online platform?

Thank you very much.

[name]

Thanks for the kind words. Tradestation is one option.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

In your book page 87 under “Pyramiding: Adding to Winners” it states that “They set their stops at 1/2N on the first day of trading and from that point forward, 2N stops were used.”

Query: If the 1/2N stop doesn’t go off on the first day, is the 2N stop set immediately from the 2nd day or does the 1/2N stop stay until the 2nd trade is initiated, then 2N from there?

Thanks,
Peter H.

TF is very robust. There is no one magic answer way. In fact, if both ways didn’t work it would be hard to imagine TF working.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I actually use pieces of several programs.

I used to do options and spreads, but now I do day trading of futures. I am trading with Elite Trader Prop account. I discovered that my computer is really not good enough for trading. It has 2.5 Ghz for speed. I have just ordered a Falcon 37 computer which is at 5.4 Ghz for speed, plus a lot more storage. I am hoping the new computer will be able to keep up with the software!

I use the Initial Balance and Value Areas as well as Point of Control for direction. I also use the first two-minute candle method trading NQ with the opening session VWAP.

I use breakouts for entering long or short.

How could the Turtle method be used day trading?

I like day trading because I don’t like to leave money unattended in open trades. The correction at Covid was scary. And my computer often did not execute stop loss orders correctly for me.

My goal when I get the new computer is to rebuild my portfolio. It is not as big as it used to be.

Stephanie

TF is not day trading!

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Feedback in:

Mr. MC,

You said in one of your emails to drop you a line or reply to one of your emails and you would personally answer, so here goes.

Nice to meet you, sir. I will go out on a limb and say I somewhat disagree on diversification. I think that is the wrong thing to do. You do that after, say, maybe 10 to 15 years. I remember Warren Buffet saying, just starting out, pick one maybe two stocks then watch them like a hawk. Lolololol.

It took me awhile to fully understand that, until I learned about ‘aristocratic stocks and king stocks’, and what I have named ‘angel or halo stocks’.

The angel/halo stocks are stocks that have paid their dividend for over 100 years, some up to, I believe, 125 to 130 years. That is out of this world, really, don’t you think? All total, there are like 125 or so of those dividend paying stocks in the two groups or three groups with my new angel/halo stocks, that is not that many to go through to find a great stock.

Those stocks, aristocratic stocks, are stocks that have paid a dividend every quarter for 25 years. And they had to do that just to get the name aristocratic. Then to keep the name, they had to continue doing that every quarter and never reducing their dividend for another 25 years to keep the aristocratic name. Now, once that stock hits 50 years, they lose the aristocratic name and get the name ‘King’. They keep that name for as long as they pay their quarterly dividend and never reducing their dividend. I have added a new name, I name these stocks angel stocks or halo stocks because when the king stocks hit 100 years of paying a dividend every quarter and never reducing their dividend, I call them that.

That is what I would call a sure thing in the stock market. Most, if not all, financial experts say there is no such thing as a sure thing in the markets, but I wholeheartedly disagree. All the king stocks today made it through the 1987 market crash and the 2008 crash. Yes, they all dropped in stock price, but the important point is they all still paid their quarterly dividend. That is also a great extra buying time for the stock.

Would not picking a king stock or my newly named angel/halo stock be better and dollar cost average into that stock until retirement and do it in a Roth IRA? Just asking and throwing my idea out there and hope you might toss out your thoughts on those stocks and my take on how to invest for retirement. Where am I wrong/missing something?

Thank you for your time and all the best to you and your family. I always learn something from your emails. May the Lord bless you and your family and watch over you.

Tony H.

Thanks! But trend following is a better direction.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Trend Following Trading Systems with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio.

Listen to this episode:

• Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
• Listen on Spotify.
• Libysn RSS.
• Download as MP3 by right-clicking here and choosing “save as.”
• Free Video.

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Thank you for your books!

I bought my first stock when I was 14 then I started to manage my family portfolios at 24 (I’m 51 now) in 1997. I made money in the dot com bubble era.

I’ve been told behavioral finance, technical analysis in 2000. I was a technical analyst and sales at [name]. Since then I manage my family portfolios trend following style. Then I ran a money management company, [name] in Paris France, as Head of Sales (1B€ gathered in 3 years from nul), buy and hope style on green economy stocks that crashed in 08 subprime crisis. Then I ran a trend following money management company, [name] in Zug Switzerland, as trader and sales.

Now I’m back on track to launch a trend following money management company in Luxemburg and I’m looking for a money management company to help me on this. For the moment I focus on my track record started Feb 23, 2025. I trade Nasdaq, SP500 and DOW futures.

Regards,
[name]

Thanks for your support! However, I don’t have a lead for you here, but wish you the best of luck.

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How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.