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Trade Like A Trend Following Shark

Jerry Parker writes in:

What makes trend followers so great is their uncompromising approach to life: They’re mean, they’re hungry, and they’re coming at you. There’s a refreshing obviousness about the entire species; they pull no punches, they spring no surprises. They are what they are.

Parker passed this article on:

If everybody seems pretty depressed this week, there’s an obvious reason for it: Shark Week just ended. Shark Week, an annual bonanza provided by Discovery Channel, is insanely popular, generating amazing ratings year after year. Almost 29 million people watched it last week during prime-time hours. That’s 29 million. And why not? Sharks unite people of all races, creeds and political stripes, because everyone, even libertarians, are scared of sharks, and TV shows about the daunting creatures unite the nation emotionally. By contrast, a lot of people think meth dealers (“Breaking Bad”) and serial killers (Dexter, Hannibal) are role models. What makes sharks so great is their uncompromising approach to life: They’re mean, they’re hungry, and they’re coming at you. There’s a refreshing obviousness about the entire species; they pull no punches, they spring no surprises. They are what they are. People just love this annual celebration of the dorsally challenging, and when Shark Week is over you can feel the spirit of the American people sag. It means that the summer itself is winding down. Even the sharks are closing up shop. What a massive downer. Shark Week comes but once a year—this season with a “dramatized” documentary about a monstrously huge shark called Megalodon—and for the other 51 weeks we are on our own. I don’t understand this. If the public is so fixated on sharks, why isn’t there a Shark Spring Break? Why isn’t there at least a Shark Week every quarter? Why isn’t there a Shark Christmas Special? Or an All-Shark President’s Weekend? What other type of programming could be so breathtakingly popular, yet only get broadcast once a year? Pro Football Week? Nascar Week? “The Daily Show” Week? And don’t tell me there are only a finite number of programs about sharks out there, or that the public would eventually turn away if the airwaves were glutted with shows devoted to the tigers of the deep. Don’t be ridiculous. The very concept of Shark Week raises interesting questions about TV programming in general. Why is it always sharks that have to man the barricades? Why don’t rabid lemurs ever get into the act? Why can’t spotted hyenas ever step into the breach? Hey, you pumas out there. Hey, boa constrictors. Put on your game face and suit up. Admittedly, Spotted Hyena Week does not have the same ring. Much of the problem lies with the personalities and public profile of the planet’s other species. Whales are just not scary, except killer whales, which are actually dolphins—and that ruins everything, terror-wise. Bears are only intermittently scary; even the ferocious ones look kind of cute. Tigers are scary, but people like and admire tigers, while they hate sharks. Same deal with lions. Anacondas are scary, but you are not going to get eaten alive by an anaconda in the Long Island Sound or off the coast of Malibu. As for dogs, cats, cows, robin redbreasts, Shetland ponies? Forget it. Feral Cat Week has some appeal, as do Killer Gibbons and Jailbreak Chimps. But a whole week devoted to those animals’ exploits? I don’t think so. I am not telling Discovery Channel how to run its business. Actually, I am. Television is a zero-sum proposition. If there were more shows about sharks all year round there would be fewer series about klutzes auditioning for doomed Broadway productions, fewer talk shows, and far fewer programs in which people who can’t sing get to decide the fates of people who can’t dance. If there were Sunday morning gabfests like “Face the Shark Nation” or “Meet The Shark,” people might actually tune into those shows. A step in the right direction might be incorporating some shark material into otherwise humdrum programming: “The PBS NewsHour + Sharks,” “Conan & Sharks,” the National Hockey League Game of the Shark Week. I’m not saying it would boost viewership for every show with minuscule ratings. But it would be a step in the right direction.

Nice.


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Who’s Your Daddy?

A recent email conversation:

Ray: I’ve read all the books and saw the movie. I really enjoy the podcast. I’ve learned a lot from you work and look forward to seeing what new projects your working on. At times i may not agree with your rants, but it does make me think Thank you for all you’ve done.

Covel: Thanks. What do you disagree on?

Ray: Perhaps agree or disagree is not the proper term, for I find your work very enlightening. Though I agree with the argument you are making, at times I wonder if there is a better way to make. For instance, the image of Big Ben kissing me on the lips and tucking me in is not the most pleasant. I understand and agree with your point of view just not the visual image. Maybe it’s just the green tea talking.

Covel: Ah I see. Two ways I see that. Gross and a better image to be used perhaps. Or spot on and it makes people terribly uncomfortable to think about how much power they have entrusted to him. And that his position has truly become daddy-esque.

Ray: Did we entrust him with the power? He’s not elected. Or did he just take the power? 2008 provided a great opportunity for someone to grab power and Ben took as much as he could.

Covel: People have voted for the overall system (that includes Bernanke) to take care of them from cradle to grave. Sort of like when we are 5 years old and our parents tuck us in and give us a kiss.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
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Performance
Research
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Talking Loud and Saying Nothing

This email came in:

I am an avid listener of you podcast, I have read and seen much of your material and I have to say enjoy your controversial approach. I find it hilarious how you poke fun at the technical charting ‘fan base’, but like the many I have to say I would disagree that trend following is the only proven way. In short, I think we both agree risk management is the key to longevity whatever style you adopt, from many of the legends have been quoted that the style of trading is not the issue but finding a system which suits your personalty is critical. As 90 percent of any trade is psychological any system in the wrong hands is doomed to fail if executed emotionally even trend following. There are many famous technical traders all of which would have there profit and loss available to see from the same resources you produced when showing all the successful trend followers. I don’t think your argument towards the technicals is valid, but l do agree that trend following works and is a great trading strategy, l just think its a little naive to think its the only one. Keep up the good work, I really like your material.
Regards
James

Where is the data for the predictive technical analysis traders? Send me the decades of performance data. James Brown, and I say this with a smile, saw it:


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Why Do I Have to Go to School?

Feedback in:

Michael, I have never contacted you before but have listened to all your podcasts. Great stuff! My wife forwarded this to me and I immediately thought of you, in addition to a number of other free thinkers …and just knew I had to forward it. Enjoy,
Tim

Give a big thanks to your wife for the find:


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Is Not “Eyeballing”

When do I enter and exit? When do trend followers know it is the right time to enter or exit? Some feedback:

Michael, how do you know when a trend starts, and when a trend ends? I’m not asking for your precise signals, but you never mention that somewhere in your writings or student presentations there actually is some precise signal for entering and a precise signal for exiting. And what are the signals for confirming that a trend is in existence? I would feel much better about you if you just said that you did indeed have proprietary signals for the existence of a trend, a signal for entering, a signal for exiting, and that you impart this to your students. I hope you won’t say that you just eyeball a trend and make a judgement without signals as to the entry and exit.
Thanks.

You have read chapter 5 of my book The Complete TurtleTrader? It is a system walk through with entries/exits. Yes, my systems/training at www.trendfollowing.com has exact entry/exits. In terms of trend existence–a trend can never be measured or properly known until after an exit signal. There is no eyeballing in the trend following world. This is about systems.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

William Eckhardt Trend Following Wisdom

Question: “Every few years after a rough period someone says trend-following is dead.”

William Eckhardt: “I lived through the death of trend following a half dozen times and, like Mark Twain’s death, it was highly exaggerated.”


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 146: Mebane Faber Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mebane Faber
Mebane Faber

My guest today is Mebane Faber, a co-founder and the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management. Faber is the manager of Cambria’s ETFs and separate accounts. Mr. Faber is the host of The Meb Faber Show podcast and has authored numerous white papers and leather-bound books. He is a frequent speaker and writer on investment strategies and has been featured in Barron’s, The New York Times, and The New Yorker.

The topic is his book Shareholder Yield: A Better Approach to Dividend Investing.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • State of quant investing in Asia
  • How asset allocation is like “bullets”
  • The benefits of quantitative-style systems
  • Protecting yourself against your own behavioral biases
  • Connections between biology and trading
  • Behavioral finance
  • Keeping yourself from making irrational decisions
  • Boom-bust cycles and bubbles
  • Quant views on the efficient market theory and buy and hold
  • Japanese markets compared to US markets
  • “Cheap” and “expensive” countries and markets
  • Asset class agnosticism
  • Avoiding the big losses
  • Investing based on dividends
  • Momentum as a return factor
  • Exit strategies

Listen to this episode:

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