You have a trading strategy that works? Prove it. Give me the empirical data. Or you can go this direction:
When people see something they love is under threat, their first reaction is to build an “impenetrable” wall, a Maginot Line–and just to be extra safe they decide to enclose a bit more territory, a buffer zone, inside its fortifications. It seems like a good, prudent idea. It seems to protect us from the awful slippery slope, the insidious thin edge of the wedge, and as everyone knows, if you give them an inch, they’ll take a mile. Dig the moat! Build the wall! And as far out as you can afford. But this policy typically burdens the defenders with a brittle, extravagant (implausible, indefensible) set of dogmas that cannot be defended rationally–and hence must be defended, in the end, with desperate clawing and shouting.
Start with the data. Then clawing and shouting go away.
Source: Dennett, Daniel C. (2013-05-06). Intuition Pumps And Other Tools for Thinking (p. 204). W. W. Norton & Company. Kindle Edition.
This email came in:
I am an avid listener of you podcast, I have read and seen much of your material and I have to say enjoy your controversial approach. I find it hilarious how you poke fun at the technical charting ‘fan base’, but like the many I have to say I would disagree that trend following is the only proven way. In short, I think we both agree risk management is the key to longevity whatever style you adopt, from many of the legends have been quoted that the style of trading is not the issue but finding a system which suits your personalty is critical. As 90 percent of any trade is psychological any system in the wrong hands is doomed to fail if executed emotionally even trend following. There are many famous technical traders all of which would have there profit and loss available to see from the same resources you produced when showing all the successful trend followers. I don’t think your argument towards the technicals is valid, but l do agree that trend following works and is a great trading strategy, l just think its a little naive to think its the only one. Keep up the good work, I really like your material.
Where is the data for the predictive technical analysis traders? Send me the decades of performance data. James Brown, and I say this with a smile, saw it:
Kevin Bruce is a silent (and very successful) trend following pioneer. Who is he? For those trend following data freaks out there, check this out (PDF). The highlighted sections are Bruce. You ask who is “Signet”? Signet Bank was where Bruce worked. In one of those odd stories Bruce had convinced, due to his performance and his fortuitous timing, to let a regional bank back in the day let him trade a trend following portfolio ‘in house’. To hear him talk about how he managed this relationship is nothing short of amazing. Bruce also appears in my film Broke.
Note: I will be soon putting out the long form interviews of many of the traders in my film. Bruce is coming, but first I will release David Harding (76 minutes) and Salem Abraham (89 minutes). Both are timeless interviews.