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Lever Carefully and Wait for Stops

Trend Following Is Not “Eyeballing”

When do I enter and exit? When do trend followers know it is the right time to enter or exit? Some feedback:

Michael, how do you know when a trend starts, and when a trend ends? I’m not asking for your precise signals, but you never mention that somewhere in your writings or student presentations there actually is some precise signal for entering and a precise signal for exiting. And what are the signals for confirming that a trend is in existence? I would feel much better about you if you just said that you did indeed have proprietary signals for the existence of a trend, a signal for entering, a signal for exiting, and that you impart this to your students. I hope you won’t say that you just eyeball a trend and make a judgement without signals as to the entry and exit.
Thanks.

You have read chapter 5 of my book The Complete TurtleTrader? It is a system walk through with entries/exits. Yes, my systems/training at www.trendfollowing.com has exact entry/exits. In terms of trend existence–a trend can never be measured or properly known until after an exit signal. There is no eyeballing in the trend following world. This is about systems.

Learn A Stop Loss Method from the Stoics

An excerpt from The Power of Negative Thinking:

Ancient philosophers and spiritual teachers understood the need to balance the positive with the negative, optimism with pessimism, a striving for success and security with an openness to failure and uncertainty. The Stoics recommended “the premeditation of evils,” or deliberately visualizing the worst-case scenario. This tends to reduce anxiety about the future: when you soberly picture how badly things could go in reality, you usually conclude that you could cope. Besides, they noted, imagining that you might lose the relationships and possessions you currently enjoy increases your gratitude for having them now. Positive thinking, by contrast, always leans into the future, ignoring present pleasures.

More:

The social critic Barbara Ehrenreich has persuasively argued that the all-positive approach, with its rejection of the possibility of failure, helped bring on our present financial crises. The psychological evidence, backed by ancient wisdom, certainly suggests that it is not the recipe for success that it purports to be.

A good stoic primer. Also, a video.

Nicholas Darvas: Trend Trader

From a Time Magazine article in 1959:

Darvas places his buy orders for levels that he considers breakout points on the upside. At the same time, he places a stop-loss sell order just below his buy order, so that if the stock does not move straight up after he buys, he will be sold out and his loss cut. “I have no ego in the stock market,” he says. “If I make a mistake I admit it immediately and get out fast.” Darvas thinks his system is the height of conservatism. Says he: “If you could play roulette with the assurance that whenever you bet $100 you could get out for $98 if you lost your bet, wouldn’t you call that good odds?” If he has a big profit in a stock, he puts the stop-loss order just below the level at which a sliding stock should meet support. He bought Universal Controls at 18, sold it at 83 on the way down after it had hit 102. “I never bought a stock at the low or sold one at the high in my life,” says Darvas. “I am satisfied to be along for most of the ride.”

I can’t recall the last time the financial press reported that a 1959 Time Magazine article might actually be good for one’s portfolio health.

Learn more about Nicholas Darvas trader here

Goldline Starting to Tarnish

I just called the Goldline guys.

First thing I asked, “If I buy gold from you when do I ever sell?”

The punk on the phone (and that is being charitable) said:

“Gold has never crashed.”

“If gold was to go again from $800 to $200 you would have plenty of warning to sell.”

I asked who was going to give me that warning. He said, drum roll please….they would. Everyone should call and have this conversation. Block your number and only give them your first name. Ask them the same questions I did before they get any details from you. It’s an experience!

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