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Tag: Trend Following

Ep. 339: Tim Price Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tim Price
Tim Price

My guest today is Tim Price, the London-based Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management. Price has over 20 years of experience in both private client and institutional investment management.

The topic is his blog The Price of Everything.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why the fundamentals are so ‘shocking’
  • FDR and the Great Depression
  • Why government taking its hands out of the equation can be the solution in a recession or depression
  • Why savers suffer in silence
  • The three scenarios that occur when you accept that much debt simply cannot be paid back (growth, default, or inflation)
  • The standoff between Germany and Greece, and how the average German might feel today about common currency
  • The lack of outrage of zero interest rate policy

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Meeting Trend Following Pioneer Ed Seykota

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hello Michael. I’m glad to have come cross your site and all of your information. I Actually have an interesting story about meeting Ed Seykota about 10 years ago.

Ok.

Got into commodities watching my stepfather get long gold before Y2K in 2000. He did well. Took a Ken Roberts course and started dabbling a little bit made some, lost some, but continued to grow my interest through 2004.

Came across the turtle trading site and all the information, read as much as I could, downloaded everything and saved it in files. Read all the books on the recommended reading lists. Out of all the market wizards, for some reason Ed Seykota jumped off the page at me. Liked his spirit. I was headed to Tahoe for a vacation and remembered reading that he lived there. Okay, tracked him down.

Decided to reach out to him. Shot him an email and said thank you for all the work that he did to try to share with people and to bring them along toward a better life. Asked if we could meet and I could thank him in person and buy him a cup of coffee. He replied and said that he didn’t drink coffee but that he liked to ride his mountain bike and play music. He asked if I did either of those things.

In fact, I did ride a mountain bike and I do play guitar. He said well give me a call when you get up here. Let’s go for a ride and play some music, and we did. Was invited back to visit his trading tribe. Very cool experience.

Nice.

You may also enjoy reading the Ed Seykota book on his trading rules.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Feedback

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hello Michael,

I’m a 25 year veteran as a financial advisor and I’ve subscribed to more newsletters and systems than I care to admit. I know there’s no “magic bullet” to investing success when confronted with the chaos that exists in this world, but your writings and the evidence you provide has made a significant impact on me. I, like most of my financial advisor brethren, (particularly those who are independent like the [name] advisors) want to make a positive impact on the financial lives of our clients and break free from the “buy and hope” nonsense still prescribed by Wall Street professionals and the index funds. Your teaching has already helped me help my clients to better manage the risks of the markets and I’m extremely grateful. I’m an avid listener to your podcast and own three of your books (all with extensive highlighting and underlining).

All the best to you and the Trend Following team.

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

JWH, Farming and Trend Following: New Trader Inspiration

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

I just wanted to start off by saying thank you for making so many resources readily available to learn more about trend following trading.

I have been trading commodity futures for a little over 2 years now and have just recently (within the last 3 months) introduced to trend following trading. Trend following is the trading method that makes the most sense to me and the only method I can see leading to a lifetime of returns. Just recently started reading your Trend Following book and it is already resonating with me and enforcing the idea that this is the trading system for me.

I have also been an avid listener of your podcasts. Really enjoy that you dive in to more than just the trading systems themselves but rather how the individuals got their start and found trend following. I also am a fan of the podcasts that discuss the mental side of trading–the most important part.

One final question, from learning more about the trend following world have become interested in learning more about John W. Henry because like him I am a young farmer. Would ever be a guest on the podcast?

Thanks again and look forward to hearing from you.

[Name]

John W. Henry would be a great guest.

Gotta Lie To Get Invited Back

Posted on by Michael Covel

After posting the below commentary on my Facebook page I got an interesting response:

Post by Michael Covel.

This exchange followed:

Alan: Thank you for your thoughtful analysis of my market commentary March 16th. A “Trend Follower” should appreciate my confidence and reasoning that the bull run is still intact. As a market veteran of 25 years with thousands of TV appearances this may be a great opportunity to discuss the insignificance of news nonsense with your podcast listeners. Pick a time I would like to come on to talk media and its negative impact on trading discipline. I am the first to tell traders to turn off the TV as there is very little to help you make money. It is mostly infotainment to keep you emotional and tuned in to pay advertisers. In fact, I have developed a financial news aggregator to search, sort and share market video. The time saving app breaks down the markets into categories and plots the videos from news sources on price and time charts for perspective. That said I make the best effort to give a well thought out actionable trade idea on each of my appearances as opposed to speaking in broad generalizations. Trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. It should be methodical and boring and as we all know watching television to cheer lead positions does not add to profitability. Looking forward to schedule the podcast interview.

Covel: Hold on. You are the guy on CNN? The guy with videos literally every day providing near useless fundamental factoids and interpretations of what will happen next? And now you are emailing me to say trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. Don’t you think that is disingenuous? You tell me you have made 1000s of appearances, but [now] you tell people not to watch? I am not [Jim] Cramer. My podcast is not that. Best we agree to disagree right here, unless you can convince me how my eyes are lying to me when I watch your videos of broad generalizations.

Alan: I cannot change the game if I do not appear on TV. Producers and hosts do not understand the markets and create a crisis de jour. My job is to be optimistic of opportunities in any and all market conditions. Stressing a plan of action instead of fear is what I do. Having CNBC on for 10 hours a day or watching Cramer doesn’t help anybody make money. At best it may give 2-3 nuggets of information that could be explored for profit potential. People think news helps when in fact the WHY is of no importance compared to the HOW the market is moving.

Covel: You can’t let the TV hand feed you non-stop and then bite the same hand. None of what you are saying to me was on CNN.

Alan: I gave CNN reasons why I remain optimistic at a time when investors have renewed fears. Calm confidence. Participating in the TV discussion is more productive than not doing so to showcase my disciplined approach. My development of the [name] shows my recognition of this news noise issue and the need to better inform investors.

Covel: Maybe you know the truth, but to appear on TV so much is for you to play a game–their game. Try appearing on TV and tell the real truth. They won’t ask you back. Then you will have made a real advance in your credibility.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

David Harding: “We Must Either Be Cheats, Charlatans or Crooks”

Posted on by Michael Covel

While going through some of my old Trend Following Radio monologues I came across this excerpt from a David Harding interview:

Interviewer: Okay, one final question. When you look back at your long and successful career, was courage rewarded in your investment decisions?

Harding: The main place I would say that courage had entered into my career, and I’m not sure whether this is virtuous courage or not, [Name] this morning differentiated between good courage and bad courage and I’m not sure whether mine is good courage or bad courage. But I can tell you that everybody, most of my career, all of the intellectual orthodoxy and all the professors and the businessmen and all the forces of respectability said that what we did was impossible. Completely theoretically impossible and therefore we must either be cheats, charlatans or crooks. To go on running your business when everyone says that what you’re doing is theoretically impossible clearly means you’re in a very lonely position. I think part of the reason I’ve been very well rewarded is out of sheer perversity. I went on doing what I was doing because I trusted the evidence of my scientific research and the evidence of my senses over received wisdom of the powers that be and the authorities in the world. So if I had any lesson, Mark Twain said, “How come when physical courage is so common, moral courage is so rare.” That saying has always had a special meaning for me because I’m particularly cowardly physically as well.

Wisdom.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Hard Part About Surfing

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hey Michael, Not sure if you caught Seth Godin’s most recent blog post, so I thought I’d pass it along:

Surfing, the conceptual kind, is more essential than ever, it’s not optional. And the hardest part of surfing, by far, is paddling out, not surfing in. Carrying the board, getting back into the water, paddling through the waves, waiting for the next set…it’s exhausting, and surfers spend far more time doing this than they do on the other part. Having the guts to surf is what change demands. And finding the stamina to paddle back out is a key part of surfing.

I thought it had many parallels to trend following. Enjoy!

[Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.