Subscribe now and watch my free trend following VIDEO.

Tag: risk management

Ep. 342: Victor Ricciardi Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Victor Ricciardi
Victor Ricciardi

My guest today is Victor Ricciardi, an Assistant Professor of Financial Management at Goucher College. Professor Ricciardi is a leading expert on the academic literature and emerging research issues in behavioral finance. He is the editor of several eJournals distributed by the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). Ricciardi is also the co-editor of the book Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing.

The topic is behavioral finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Risk perception vs. risk tolerance
  • The affect and the anchoring heuristic
  • Behavioral finance vs. behavioral economics
  • Looking at behavioral finance in the context of specific strategies
  • Behavioral economics in the context of asset bubbles and the popping of asset bubbles
  • Why economic growth does not increase happiness; mindfulness as an assist in the notion of good decision-making; the notion of animal spirits
  • Behavioral school vs. the classical school in academia

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Ep. 341: Michael Dever Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Dever
Michael Dever

My guest today is Michael Dever, an American businessman, futures trader, entrepreneur, and author. Dever is the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, Inc., an investment management firm founded in 1982.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Multiple fundamentally based strategies in a systematic diversified portfolio that trades across more than one hundred global markets; strategy diversification
  • The word “predictable” from Dever’s perspective; lack of correlation to other strategies
  • What Dever means by a “not purely quantitative” strategy
  • How and why this particular suite of strategies came to exist
  • The five strategy types
  • Crisis events and black swans
  • The weakness in the multiple strategy return driver set
  • The importance of speculators
  • The fixation on low volatility strategies
  • True portfolio diversification.

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Spyros Makridakis Interview Followup

Posted on by Michael Covel

A followup from a recent conversation with Spyros Makridakis:

Dear Mike,

It was nice to talk to you this morning. As I promised I am attaching the following three papers:

  • Medicine. This is an extract from an article I am writing about Forecasting and Uncertainty. It is amazing that the forecasting record of medicine is so dismal as it involves our lives and health.
  • Positive Illusions. This is a recent paper that will be published in a book of readings.
  • Why Forecasts Fail. A paper published in the Sloan Management Review that explains why forecasts fail and how I got involved in this line of research.

I am also attaching the cover copy of the book by Ablin (the guy who discovered the PSA test for prostate cancer) and his view about the validity of the test he discovered.

Let me know if I can be of any additional help and please send me the link of your podcast once it is ready.

Best,
Spyros Makridakis

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 328: Robert Seawright Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Robert Seawright
Robert Seawright

My guest today is Robert Seawright, the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California. Seawright is also a columnist for Research magazine, a Contributing Editor at Portfolioist as well as a contributor to the Financial Times, The Big Picture, The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch, Pragmatic Capitalism, and ThinkAdvisor.

The topic is his blog A New Kind Of Investment Outlook.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Seawright was able to put together this blog piece
  • Perfection and prediction
  • Bias blindness
  • Volatility vs. risk
  • Separating your politics from your investing
  • Financial media as entertainment
  • Whether Seawright encountered any pushback after putting out his article
  • Letting go of the high leverage idea
  • Why the more we trade
  • The worse we do
  • Nobel laureate David Baltimore
  • Adversarial collaboration

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Make My Dreams A Reality Mr. Covel

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel, Trust you must be doing great.​ ​I ​have read all of your books many times & I really admire you for your methodical approach to markets. I am a IIT-IIM Graduate with more than 22 years of experience in India Capital Markets. I have been able to predict the market turns with close to 90% accuracy with verifiable track record. I appear on CNBC, ZEE Business & ET-NOW regularly. I am really passionate towards my profession. I run a boutique Alternative Investment Management firm specializing in generating positive returns irrespective of Market Direction. We are proficient in all types of Technical Analysis based trading.

1. Conventional Pattern Recognition Based Trading
2. Computerized Algorithm Based Trading
3. Predictive Methodology Based Analysis
4. Behavioral Studies based on Market’s Psychological Profile

I have a proposal to launch an Absolute Alpha Global Hedge Fund using hugely diversified strategies for trading in multiple asset classes such as different Global Equity Indices, Commodities & Currencies. As we will be using just 30% fund in trading, more than 60% funds will be used in Global Arbitrage to generate fixed income for balancing the risk. We are fully confident that we will be able to give more than 20% positive returns per annum in USD terms with less than 10% Equity drawdown. We wish to create a Global Hedge Fund which specializes in generating super normal positive returns every year. This structure has humongous potential to become a hugely successful Fund in just 2 to 3 years. I have 100% conviction in my abilities to deliver the real performance. An association with your company will give us everything what we are looking for. I look forward to hear positively from you soon to make my dream into reality. I promise you to give my 100% efforts to deliver more than the promise.

Thanks & warm regards,
[Name]

I don’t recall ever writing about 90% accuracy. Isn’t that the Holy Grail of all Holy Grails? Even if you had that accuracy how does it guarantee you make money? You could be accurate 90% of the time and still lose massive money on the other 10%. Accuracy talk is not trend following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Know Thy Risk Factors

Posted on by Michael Covel

Sandy Brasher turned me onto a piece by Harry Long. Some of his article is off target, and a clear misunderstanding of trend following (“The most popular trend following system is the Golden Cross/Death Cross”), but his passage I liked to some degree (it’s not complete):

When examined in this light, it is not actually statistically interesting to determine if trend following is a holy grail. It is statistically interesting to understand that by engaging in trend following vs. buy-and-hold, one is quite literally exchanging one set of risks for another. Strategies are not about trading assets — they are about trading risk factors. And it appears that buy-and-hold risk factors are more widely held in portfolios than trend following risk factors. Markets have cruel methods for correcting such imbalances.

The key: what are those risk factors? That’s what is not complete.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Larry Hite and Warren Buffett

Posted on by Michael Covel

ISAM Systematic Presentation 2011-12

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.