A followup from a recent conversation with Spyros Makridakis:
It was nice to talk to you this morning. As I promised I am attaching the following three papers:
- Medicine. This is an extract from an article I am writing about Forecasting and Uncertainty. It is amazing that the forecasting record of medicine is so dismal as it involves our lives and health.
- Positive Illusions. This is a recent paper that will be published in a book of readings.
- Why Forecasts Fail. A paper published in the Sloan Management Review that explains why forecasts fail and how I got involved in this line of research.
I am also attaching the cover copy of the book by Ablin (the guy who discovered the PSA test for prostate cancer) and his view about the validity of the test he discovered.
Let me know if I can be of any additional help and please send me the link of your podcast once it is ready.