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Neurath’s Boat via Robert Seawright

From Bob Seawright:

The world we live in is profoundly complex and is much more difficult for us to navigate than we usually think or assume. According to Dan Kahneman, “We systematically underestimate the amount of uncertainty to which we’re exposed, and we are wired to underestimate the amount of uncertainty to which we are exposed.” Accordingly, “we create an illusion of the world that is much more orderly than it actually is.”

Our ability to forecast the future, much less control the future, is extremely limited and is far more limited than we want to believe. That’s why the planning fallacy is such a constant and monumental problem. We simply misapprehend (or ignore) the data far too often. Instead, we concoct stories — often wonderful stories — to provide an interpretive framework for our forecasts, expectations and decisions. That framework is necessary for us to “sell” our stories and ourselves.

He continues:

We are always tempted and too often swayed by the shiny new object — the next “silver bullet” — that will make things right. Sadly, life doesn’t seem to work that way very often. No matter what our stories say.

Spot on.

Otto Neurath
Otto Neurath

Ep. 328: Robert Seawright Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Robert Seawright
Robert Seawright

Michael Covel speaks with Robert Seawright on today’s podcast. Seawright is the Chief Investment & Information Officer for Madison Avenue Securities, a boutique broker-dealer and investment advisory firm headquartered in San Diego, California. Seawright is also a columnist for Research magazine, a Contributing Editor at Portfolioist as well as a contributor to the Financial Times, The Big Picture, The Wall Street Journal’s MarketWatch, Pragmatic Capitalism, and ThinkAdvisor. Covel opens up by talking about “A New Kind Of Investment Outlook”, a blog post by Seawright. Covel explains that this episode is all about the right type of thinking when it comes to proper investing. Covel and Seawright discuss topics such as how Seawright was able to put together this blog piece; perfection and prediction; bias blindness; volatility vs. risk; separating your politics from your investing; financial media as entertainment; whether Seawright encountered any pushback after putting out his article; letting go of the high leverage idea; why the more we trade, the worse we do; Nobel laureate David Baltimore; and adversarial collaboration. For more information on Bob Seawright visit rpseawright.com.

Listen to this episode:

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