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Tag: spyros makridakis

Ep. 522: What Did You Learn in School Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
What Did You Learn in School Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
What Did You Learn in School Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue What Did You Learn in School Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Distribution of income
  • Asking for permission
  • President Donald Trump

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Ep. 345: Spyros Makridakis Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Spyros Makridakis
Spyros Makridakis

My guest today is Spyros Makridakis, the Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is famous as the organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. His calling is to poke holes in the notion that we can forecast with accuracy.

The topic is his paper Why Forecasts Fail. What to Do Instead.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
  • The two main types of uncertainty–“subway” and “coconut”
  • Jim Collins, one of the best-selling business book authors of all time, and why it might not have any use to us
  • Medicine and chance
  • The placebo effect
  • Acceptance of an uncertain world
  • The illusion of control

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Spyros Makridakis Interview Followup

Posted on by Michael Covel

A followup from a recent conversation with Spyros Makridakis:

Dear Mike,

It was nice to talk to you this morning. As I promised I am attaching the following three papers:

  • Medicine. This is an extract from an article I am writing about Forecasting and Uncertainty. It is amazing that the forecasting record of medicine is so dismal as it involves our lives and health.
  • Positive Illusions. This is a recent paper that will be published in a book of readings.
  • Why Forecasts Fail. A paper published in the Sloan Management Review that explains why forecasts fail and how I got involved in this line of research.

I am also attaching the cover copy of the book by Ablin (the guy who discovered the PSA test for prostate cancer) and his view about the validity of the test he discovered.

Let me know if I can be of any additional help and please send me the link of your podcast once it is ready.

Best,
Spyros Makridakis

Thanks!

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