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Category: Trend Following

Ep. 76: Jack Schwager Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Jack Schwager
Jack Schwager

My guest today is Jack Schwager, a recognized industry expert in futures and hedge funds and the author of a number of widely acclaimed financial books. Schwager is one of the founders of Fund Seeder, a platform designed to find undiscovered trading talent worldwide and connect unknown successful traders with sources of investment capital. Previously, Schwager was a partner in the Fortune Group (2001-2010), a London-based hedge fund advisory firm.

The topic is his book Market Sense and Nonsense: How the Markets Really Work (and How They Don’t).

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Schwager was able to make “Market Sense and Nonsense” accessible to both professionals and laymen and touch on some of the subjects contained within: market fallacies and misconceptions
  • The idea of cable news “experts”, and what would happen if you actually followed all of the picks made by people like Jim Cramer and other talking heads
  • Comparing performance streams against each other, and why you have to consider more than just the number
  • Volatility vs. risk
  • If coming to a good risk adjusted return is based more on a scientific approach or personal preference
  • Leveraged ETFs
  • The fear of hedge funds
  • The idea of leverage and why much of “Market Sense and Nonsense” was built around trying to understand it
  • Why fund-to-fund managers putting a large group of trend following traders together in one portfolio might not be a wise move
  • Presidential election and discuss why whoever is selected to be the next president might not make much of a difference in the markets

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The Positive Trend Following Response

Posted on by Michael Covel

Jason Gerlach of Sunrise Capital writes:

Trend following is no more dead than the sport of sailing or the act of kite flying would be considered dead if for a period of time the wind didn’t blow. Like a sailboat or a kite, a trend following trading model is designed to capture the power of environmental forces. When the requisite environmental forces don’t occur for stretches of time, activities that depend on those environmental forces are not going to be successful. But if the wind stopped blowing for a month, would that mean that that the concept of sailing or kite flying no longer makes sense? Of course not. The physics of both activities would still make perfect sense and once the wind starts blowing once again, sailboats will again sail and kites will again fly. The same holds true for trend following. Just as the wind will always return to blow in the future, the forces that drive price trends—greed, fear, euphoria, panic—will return at some point and when they do, trend following trading models will make a great deal of money.

Nice.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Michael Covel Investing Podcast #2 on iTunes

Posted on by Michael Covel

Rank will ebb and flow, but I will take #2!

Another screenshot:

Thanks for the support!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 73: Peter Brandt Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Peter Brandt
Peter Brandt

My guest today is Peter Brandt, a trader who has been in the commodity trading space since 1976. He’s traded his own proprietary account from the late 1970s until today and is currently entering the hedge fund world by running a multi-CTA fund-of-funds. Brandt got his start in Chicago trading commodities and working at the Chicago Board of Trade for Continental Grain Company.

The topic is his book Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader: Lessons from 21 Weeks of Real Trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How the accident influenced his trading and how great lessons can be learned through adversity
  • The idea of trading a five-minute chart pattern vs. a weekly chart pattern
  • The biggest mistakes you can make as a novice trader
  • Averaging a loser
  • Risk management and the right amount to risk on any trade
  • Upside volatility and the fantasy of a straight line up of profit growth
  • The importance of reducing the incessant head chatter and living in the moment now

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QOTD: What Do You Call a Stock Down 90%?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Saw Barry Ritholtz pass along a great quote from David Einhorn:

“What do you call a stock that’s down 90%? A stock that was down 80% and then got cut in half.”

“Cheap” now doesn’t mean it is a buy. Losers average losers!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 64: The Pleasure is to Play with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The Pleasure is to Play with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Pleasure is to Play with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Pleasure Is To Play with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 63: Darren Kottle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Darren Kottle
Darren Kottle

My guest today is Darren Kottle, the Chief Investment Officer of Caddo Capital Management LLC, and sub-advisor to an alternative/hedged strategy at Catalyst Funds.

The topic is hedge fund.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Kottle’s early experiences in the market, starting off in a discount stock brokerage
  • His experiences working with a Nobel laureate Kenneth Arrow at Stanford
  • The sources of trend following profit
  • George Soros’ concept of reflexivity
  • The importance and believing in your system to the core
  • Thoughts on investment banks
  • The pivot point for Kottle to fully embrace a trend following system
  • What the Turtle story did for him when he first heard it
  • Uncertainty vs. being wrong
  • The percentage of people that truly understand that “it’s all reflected in the price”

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