Today’s guest is Alexander Ineichen founder of Ineichen Research and Management. He is the author of several books including “Absolute Returns” and “Asymmetric Returns”. Inehichen has been researching and writing about trend trading strategy for decades.
The conversation today focuses on the notion of simplicity as sophistication. Michael Covel and Alexander Ineichen discuss the habit of investors to get caught up in market forecasting fantasies. Often, as research shows, people are drawn toward the excitement of what they perceive as the financial industry dream. They get distracted by what could be the future when they should be directing their attention at what’s happening in the moment. This is also what trend following is all about.
Ineichen explains his particular method of nowcasting, which involves combining hard market trends with socio-economic data from other fields. The end goal is to create a far more robust and stable system for the vast majority of investors. He aims to eliminate the “show element” of forecasting and analyze what’s happening on the ground – now.
Michael and Alexander also discuss the difficulty of investing in tech – prediction doesn’t work there either.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
- Seeing through the market forecasting flash
- The importance of “check box” methodology
- Simplification as sophistication
- The concept of nowcasting
- Understanding the whole, so you know what can be eliminated
- Learning to watch for trend reversals
“If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.” – George Soros
Mentions & Resources:
- Alexander Ineichen
- Absolute Returns by Alexander Ineichen
- Asymmetrical Returns by Alexander Ineichen
- George Soros
- Steve Ballmer
- Elaine Garzarelli
- Paul Krugman
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