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Ep. 550: Tesla Dreams with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Tesla Dreams with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Tesla Dreams with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael reads, “Sparks Fly on Wall Street Over Tesla’s Current Valuation: The electric carmaker overtook GM in market capitalization last week. Is this just a bubble – or is battery tech the future?” Michael uses the piece to drive home the point that nobody knows why one stocks price is high or low. All that matters is the price. There is no way to know all of the fundamentals. Bottom line, Tesla stands around $300 a share. It is a waste of time to try and figure out why. Make sure you have your stops in place and enjoy the ride.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Tesla stock price
  • Seeing the world through a different lens
  • Fake News
  • Trading off price alone

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Ep. 538: Global Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Global Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Global Opportunity with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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The vast majority of the investing population only know their own country’s stock index inside their portfolio. Top investors know much more than that. They think about gold, palladium, the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen, silver, copper, bonds, wheat, etc. Most would never think of trading these markets, however these markets are part of the trend following world. Any everyone can trade any market through a handful of different financial instruments such as ETF’s, LEAPS, and futures. The fundamentals of these markets are irrelevant for profit. The only information needed to trade any market for profit is price. This type of thinking opens markets up to anyone and everyone willing to play the game and take advantage of the global opportunity trend following provides.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price action
  • Momentum
  • Macro hedge fund
  • Trade everything
  • Ignoring the fundamentals

“All price action is, is human behavior manifested in the number. That’s it.” – Michael Covel

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Ep. 536: The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Most Important Thing with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Howard Marks is a billionaire value investor with four decades of success. Although a value investor, his thought process mirrors trend following in many aspects. Michael plays an excerpt from Howard covering his thoughts on price, the lack of value in forecasting, efficient markets, surviving market randomness, and high yield bonds. Trend following and value investing may be two different worlds, however, there is a lot of overlap in how Howard trades and how trend followers trade.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Price action
  • Forecasting
  • Value investing
  • How to think about investing
  • Black swans

“You should not act as though the things that should happen will happen.” – Howard Marks

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Ep. 515: Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Epic Trend Following Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Episode 515 is another “Mega episode.” It is a culmination of interviews comprised of four of the most successful trend following traders alive today: Ewan Kirk, Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, Martin Lueck and Christopher Cruden.

Ewan Kirk is the head of Cantab Capital and has brought his firm from $30M AUM in 2006 to over $5B today. Kirk employs several strategies but clearly uses a trend following foundation.

Jean-Philippe Bouchaud is founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management (CFM) and professor of physics at École polytechnique.

Martin Lueck holds an M.A. in Physics from Oxford University and currently is the Research Director and President of Aspect Capital. Lueck was originally with Adam, Harding and Lueck Limited (AHL), which he co-founded with Michael Adam and David Harding.

Christopher Cruden has been in the trend following space for over 25 years. In 1988 he became a Director of Adam, Harding and Lueck Asset Management Ltd (AHL). He is currently the head of Insch Capital Management.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Importance of consistent marginal improvements
  • Understanding a client’s drivers
  • Benefits the economy, society, and the world
  • Randomness is everything
  • Discretionary traders
  • Losses are statistically inevitable
  • Holy grails in trading
  • Behavioral biases
  • Volatility as measuring risk
  • Exploiting vs. Exploring
  • Tail risk premia vs. Pure alpha
  • Behavioral economics
  • Systematic trading
  • Price action
  • Benchmark selection
  • Time period selection
  • Markets teach humility
  • Time management

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Ep. 478: Desert Island Prices with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Desert Island Prices with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Desert Island Prices with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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“We all avoid reality non-stop. We don’t know where it starts and where it ends. We don’t like to look at facts. We don’t like new information. We have biases that are non-stop.” Michael goes down a reality tour of market prices today. He talks about past prices in the market and the present all time highs we are experiencing right now. He makes listeners think about prices and how they move rather than voices at Bloomberg and CNBC. Michael says, “Just focus on price action and look at markets from a ‘desert island approach’.” Trading price is the only information you can trust. He gives examples from the past including the dot-com bubble, housing crisis, 1989 NIKKEI crash, Gold in the 1970’s, and possible current bubbles.

Michael emphasizes to put away all the noise and just look at the numbers. He is not saying when there will be the next market crash, just that there will be another one. Historically we are due for a significant decline. What are the odds that the S&P losses 50%? If you are going to retire soon, or are in retirement and the S&P drops, how will your life be? Will you be able to ride it out? Do you have an alternative strategy? Big questions.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Black Swans
  • Anti-fragile
  • Market Crashes
  • Price action analysis
  • Shutting out the noise
  • Island trading
  • Price distribution
  • No free lunch

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Ep. 465: Sunrise Capital with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Sunrise Capital with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Sunrise Capital with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Jason Gerlach and Chris Stanton are the CEO and CIO of Sunrise Capital Partners. Sunrise Capital is a systematic firm located in San Diego. They were featured in The Little Book of Trading. Sunrise has been in business for four decades trading. Their goal is to invest in an intellectual way by taking human emotion out of their decision-making.

Michael opens the conversation up with Brexit and how Sunrise Capital reacted. There are foreseeable events and unforeseeable events. Brexit was a foreseeable event. Jason and Chris breakdown the weeks before Brexit, and how Sunrise has been positioning their portfolios in contrast to other firms. Jason and Chris say that in the systematic world there have been two different camps of thought in how to approach Brexit.

Michael moves the conversation from Brexit to Oil dropping in 2014. Jason and Chris say that these events are not just moneymaking events, they are also risk management events. People live in the middle of a bell curve and never think of the tail events in life. They trade and invest for the non-random times and are always shocked when events tend to go further than expected. Sunrise does the opposite and uses technology to curb our human irrationality.

Michael and Chris dive deeper into risk management and the importance of diversification. Sunrise has five systems that operate differently in all market situations. Chris explains risk adjusted return and how setting the “heat” is really the heart of leverage. “What kind of return is optimal for you?” The higher expected rate of return, the more drawdown you may have. When you look at someone’s rate of return, you have to look at what their drawdowns are like. Leverage is a reality in strategies; you just need to be responsible with that leverage and cater it to each individual investors needs.

Michael moves on to ask, “Has Brexit opened up Pandora’s box?” Chris and Jason say Sunrise believes that price distribution has changed since 2013. Intraday volatility has changed and prices now make huge jumps in smaller time-frames than they ever have before.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Brexit and systematic trading
  • Price distribution
  • Price action
  • Directional betting on a coin flip event
  • Preparing for black swan events
  • Are computers good or bad?
  • MAR ratio
  • Diversification

“Systems control the trading ideas. What they do is they give you a statistical edge in creating your trading ideas.” – Chris Stanton

“It’s a bad idea to get the insurance after the catastrophe.” – Jason Gerlach

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Ep. 452: The Seduction of Fundamentals with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Seduction of Fundamentals with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Seduction of Fundamentals with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Michael Covel breaks apart Bill Ackman and Valeant Pharmaceuticals. He reads from a MarketWatch article that highlights documents that came from a Senate committee investigating the Valeant scandal, and the various reactions of top people involved. Michael also outlines and comments on various interchanges between Bill Ackman, Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, and news outlets.

This episode is a “behind the curtain look” at billionaire traders and the seduction of fundamentals.

Just a little attitude in this episode…

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Fundamentals
  • Valeant vs. Enron
  • The Deep State
  • Fixing the media
  • Trading off price

“You have to fight back with intelligence. You have to fight back with smarts. You have to fight back with a good strategy. You can’t just sit there and accept what the system gives you because the system is going to give you exactly what it wants to give you.” – Michael Covel

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