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Category: Trend Following

“The podcasts help…to inspire, educate and reinvigorate my ‘animal spirits’ as I ride the bucking bronco each and every day.”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Michael: I wanted to reiterate my ongoing appreciation for your passionate pursuit of trend following. The podcasts help a great deal and they serve to inspire, educate and reinvigorate my “animal spirits” as I ride the bucking bronco each and every day.

Recognizing a free market is not a free lunch, and that your generous and copious free content must be supported, I bought kindle versions of Trend Commandments and The Little Book during the past month. They occupy space with Reminiscences of a Stock Operator*, The Capitalist Spirit by Yale Hirsch and Morales & Kacher’s book Trade Like an O’Neil Disciple. (*The Jon Markman version is a great edition of this trading classic, offering deep historical context throughout the entire book.)

In fact, the very first kindle book I purchased was a new edition of Trend Following, putting the “smart” into my smart phone. 🙂

Whenever new editions come out, of course, they will be purchased.

It all began with email back in 2003 or so. That first tuition seemed “pricey” but I have made (and lost and made) multiples of that over time. The real tuition was the time spent putting the lessons into practice.

Thank you again for the spark, for I shall keep the fire burning bright and hot.

Best,

Edward

Thanks Edward!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Trend Is Our Friend White Paper

Posted on by Michael Covel

Read The Trend is Our Friend: Risk Parity, Momentum and Trend Following in Global Asset Allocation. Abstract:

We examine the effectiveness of applying a trend following methodology to global asset allocation between equities,bonds,commodities and real estate.The application of trend following offers a substantial improvement in risk-adjusted performance compared to traditional buy-and-hold portfolios. We also find it to be a superior method of asset allocation than risk parity. Momentum and trend following have often been used interchangeably although the former is a relative concept and the latter absolute. By combining the two we find that one can achieve the higher return levels associated with momentum portfolios but with much reduced volatility and drawdowns due to trend following. We observe that a flexible asset allocation strategy that allocates capital to the best performing instruments irrespective of asset class enhances this further.

More trend following white papers.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 49: David Cheval Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
David Cheval
David Cheval

My guest today is David Cheval. Cheval was an inside witness to Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt’s famed Turtle experiment. Through the involvement of his former wife, famed original TurtleTrader Liz Cheval, David Cheval’s history and background for the Turtle story comes from a unique vantage point.

The topic is Turtle Trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Events surrounding the Turtle experiment, including his own interesting part in alerting his former wife to the opportunity (he is still an investor in her firm)
  • Cheval’s progression from a runner on the Chicago pits, to the formation of his CPO (Dearborn Capital Management), to his career in law today
  • The presence of Richard Dennis on the Chicago Board of Trade in the years prior to the Turtle experiment
  • Some of the lessons that can be gleaned from some of the most successful Turtles
  • The difference between volatility and risk
  • Why basic trend following philosophies are timeless

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 48: Michael Gibbons Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel

 

Michael Gibbons
Michael Gibbons

My guest today is Michael Gibbons, a market timer (otherwise known as a trend following trader) who runs a firm called Gibbons Trading. Gibbons started as an economics major and quickly realized that much of what he was taught in academia didn’t add up. He has been trading since 1971, and was one of the first to discover what is now known as stock index arbitrage. He was one of the first to use computerized trading and currently provides his proprietary research primarily to large traders and hedge funds.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How Gibbons started in the markets
  • The fallacies of buy & hold and fundamental analysis
  • Trading prices apart from everything else (and how this is close to playing the market like a video game, i.e. pong)
  • The problem of when the media is simply “making things up”
  • How trading can be primarily psychological
  • The problems of the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) and academia
  • The benefits of having a trend following strategy during chaotic times; the danger of gurus
  • Separating your ego from your trading

Listen to this episode:

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Trend Following Philosophy: Dedication and Belief

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Let me start by saying thanks for taking trend following to the masses. The podcasts are excellent. Listening to how successful system traders started out, most of them quite modestly, reinforces my discipline and “belief” (Van Tharp) in trend following. I’ve been committed to systems trading for about a year now. I had researched Trend Following online and ultimately ordered Trend Following and The Little Book. After reading those I never looked back.

I’m definitely not high net worth, so the best I can do to support your endeavor is buy your books (done, done, done & done) and watch Broke (also done). I also left a good podcast review on iTunes a while back. I like your no bullshit delivery. Saying stuff like “hey guys, buy my books already” is so refreshing (or genius marketing). I got a kick out of your “amazon purchase” challenge in a recent podcast. Ironically, I had ordered Commandments and TurtleTrader only a few days before which I look forward to reading.

I also promote your stuff to anyone who will listen but I must admit that finding an audience is not that easy. Example, I loaned Trend Following (my bad, should have gifted) to a friend who is a computer programmer and talks about investing a lot, thinking it would click for him. I was disappointed when he returned the book unread. I was also hoping he might work with me to tinker with system development and testing. So much for that.

I’m currently trading a group of fairly liquid ETFs listed on the TSX offered by Horizons. They have interesting leveraged products with exposure to basic commodities, sectors, and indices. Both directional and inverse which allow you to go short without getting stuck not being able to borrow shares. My system is very basic and I believe fairly robust. I’ve back tested it manually, incorporating proper position sizing across all the ETFs that I track (major work) and it showed positive returns.

I love that the trading component of my approach only requires 20 minutes a day adjusting orders and stops. This really fits my personality, mindset and schedule since I have a day job. I have yet to be profitable (equity curve attached), but I think the fact that I’m sticking with it is an indication that I get it. My diversification needs improvement so I’m considering Futures trading to get away from high-ish correlation of the ETFs I track. First, I need to get some trades (and equity) under my belt.

Anyway, keep the podcasts coming, but please find time to write new chapters to your “bible“.

Discovering trend following is reward enough and I just wanted to say thanks.

Cheers! Georges

Thanks!

More on the philosophy of Trend Following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Rickson Gracie, Malcolm Gladwell, The Turtles (Band) and the Pixies All to Make Trend Following Connections

Posted on by Michael Covel

Episode #22 of my monologue series is live on the podcast–listen on iTunes. Also:

Do I get some props for bringing Rickson Gracie, Malcolm Gladwell, The Turtles (Band; their biggest hit) and the Pixies into the same episode?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

10 Most Spectacular Speculations of Past 300 Years

Posted on by Michael Covel

More.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.