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The Importance of Curiosity for Trend Followers: Wanting to Know

A top CEO recently spoke before a Harvard MBA class. A student asked, “What do I do?” The CEO replied, “Take the rest of the money you have not spent on tuition and do something else.” If you do not understand his wisdom, fine. If you are curious, though, you will figure it out. That is the difference. It is a big time aha! moment–if you are awake.

However, curiosity has been lobotomized from many. Freud once lamented: “What a distressing contrast between the radiant intelligence of a child and the feeble mentality of the average adult.” Today, many seem to be waiting for an order or peeking over their shoulder to see what others are doing just to fit in.

Simple childlike curiosity with no agenda except to know–that’s it. That is the precious commodity, the secret weapon. Kids have that wide-eyed wonderment when they take apart their first toy to figure out how it works–and so should you. As simplistic as it sounds, maintaining childlike wonder and enthusiasm keeps your mental doors open.

Curiosity is the only reason I wake up to go digging in the sometimes secretive world of trend following trading. Taking very little at face value and always questioning the system is my modus operandi. With the way I am talking do you really think teachers liked it when I raised my hand? Bloodhounds find things–sometimes things people want hidden.

One of the more unlikely people to have asked me, “How do you go about unearthing details?” was former U.S.S.R. President Mikhail Gorbachev. He had been told in Russian via a translator that my career involved traders who make big money. When an introduction was made he asked me in Russian through his translator, “What is it like to write about these traders?” My response was brief: “Very interesting.” He waited for the translation, “It must be difficult to get behind the scenes; how do you do it?” With a smile I replied, “Oh, I am very good at digging.” He laughed. No translation needed. He understood my English perfectly.

My education comes directly from some of the great trend traders of the last five decades. No hyperbole. However, it did not start that way. It started while finishing grad school in London (school was a mistake, but London and travel was not). A book by motivational speaker Anthony Robbins convinced me that getting close to great traders was the solution. That sounded easy, but how to do it? One part of Robbins’s book struck me square in the solar plexus.

Unlimited Power featured a story about director Steven Spielberg. His life changed when he took a tour of Universal Studios at the age of seventeen. The tour didn’t make it to where all the action was, so Spielberg took his own action. He sneaked off to watch the filming of a real movie. Later, he ended up meeting the head of Universal’s editorial department, who expressed an interest in one of his early films. For most people, that is where the story would have ended, but Spielberg wasn’t like most. He kept pushing by meeting directors, writers, and editors–learning, observing, and developing more and more sensory acuity about what actually worked in moviemaking (excerpt: Unlimited Power).

That Spielberg story was the motivation needed. I once flew to Berlin, Germany spending thousands of dollars not in my bank account just for the chance to possibly meet and learn from a few traders at a conference–a conference where no one knew my name. My credentials were a nametag and moxie, but that calculated gamble, that intuitive belief that I would find the unexpected, worked out enough to spend quality time with a former chairman of the CME.

Those early efforts continually allowed face-to-face access to legendary traders–enough personal contact to see that they put their pants on like everyone else and that what they were doing could be learned. Attendance at those secluded conferences triggered my confidence and passion.

Unfortunately, we have a culture where that go figure it out attitude is not the norm. Children grow up with soccer leagues and spelling bees where everyone gets a prize. On the playgrounds dodge ball has been deemed too traumatic. Some parents consider musical chairs dangerously exclusionary.

Those kids will never be curious. They will end up addicted to Xanax-Ritalin sprinkled cupcakes so they can cope. Am I being a pessimistic grouch? Far from it–just describing the playing field we all know as the status quo.

What are some ways that I have learned about the right direction?

  • Bring joyful, imaginative and impassioned energy every day. Don’t fake it.
  • You don’t need to be big to be good, you need to be smart.
  • When there is no one there, insert yourself. Take over.
  • Engage the world as if your life depends on it.
  • Nothing is more important than transforming someone.
  • Have a vision grounded in your uniqueness.
  • The race winner is often curious and slightly mad.
  • Dry obligation in life will figuratively kill you.
  • No one will give you permission. Seize the mantle.
  • If you can’t solve a problem you are playing by the collective’s rules.
  • Hard work, sustained concentration, and drive are the so-called secrets.
  • Winners understand sunk costs and opportunity costs.
  • Plan to win, prepare to win and have every right to expect to win.
  • It’s in your power to change your belief systems. No one is stuck. Be unstuck.
  • Winning is never about your limited resources, but rather always about your unlimited resourcefulness.
  • By not questioning the world you always lose.

These are not necessarily intuitive. Society doesn’t encourage and celebrate the unproven striver. It is much safer to beat up new thought or heap scorn. Too many are encouraged to take the safe path. This is awful and shortsighted advice. And for those who complain they were born without a silver spoon, who think they need more money to start, who say that they were not blessed to have trend following rules in their early twenties (like the famous TurtleTraders), money cannot compensate for a lack of talent, sloth, flawed vision or a pedestrian frame of mind.

Nothing can keep you from winning if winning is what you want. To think otherwise suggests a lack of imagination and a failure of the optimism needed for attracting good things. No optimism? Stop now. I will not be able to convince everyone to escape the grip of pandering politicians, manipulative media and a mostly decadent Wall Street, but for those looking for an alternative and honest way to view the world, an alternative way to make money, you can find it.

Never forget these wise words: “The phrases gifted musician, natural athlete, and innate intelligence are genetic prisons. Abilities are not set in genetic stone. They are soft and sculptable far into adulthood. With humility, hope and extraordinary determination, greatness is something everyone can aspire to.”

And remember, “Serendipity rules!”

Recommended Podcasts and Articles

Belief is Required to Win Big

Face up to the Facts

Playing the Game

Truth and Fantasy

Doug Casey and Charles Hugh Podcast

Insights of Trend Following


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 241: A Cult-Like Indoctrination with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

A Cult-Like Indoctrination with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
A Cult-Like Indoctrination with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue A Cult-Like Indoctrination with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Keep Calm, The Fire Rises

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Leave Your Analysis at the Door

Feedback in:

Dear Micheal, I have a question for you that you might be having an answer for it. The question is related to those that try to ignore your market views only because its not based on fundamentals but based on TA [technical analysis], which is a huge debate that has been going on for centuries. For example, when you do your analysis and come up with a result that [the] market is indicting weakness in the medium term but market continues going higher and after few weeks or a month markets start to sell off aggressively and losing 15% in 1 week. Those people come to you and tell you, “But you where bearish for a long time and market went up and if we sold at that time we would have lost that the extra profit,” while if you told them [the] market could drop tomorrow, and it did they will also say that there was not enough time to get out as your call was late. How do you over come such debate? Appreciate your thoughts. Thanks in advance.

I am a trend follower. None of this debate or analysis applies. Have you read my first two books?

Note: Asking to read my books is not a dodge to his question, but rather an answer that will make his life better if he listens.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 240: Nir Eyal Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Nir Eyal
Nir Eyal

My guest today is Nir Eyal, an educator, author, and entrepreneur who is all about connecting psychology, technology, and business.

The topic is his book Hooked: How To Build Habit Forming Products.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • How behavior and habits can be engineered, and how technology changes our behavior
  • The moral implications of habit forming activities
  • The difference between habits and addictions
  • Breaking “the hook”
  • The four areas that “the hook” goes through: trigger, action, variable reward, and investment
  • The IKEA example and how value can be built
  • Eyal’s mentors and influences
  • The importance of social feedback from your community
  • The WhatsApp deal, and how to deal with your “insane jealousy” of the messaging app deal
  • Getting equal pay for equal work, and how that might be embedded in our DNA
  • The importance of interface changes when it comes to revolutionary changes in technology

Listen to this episode:

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The Podcast Competition

Feedback in:

Hey Mike, you continue to make new all-time highs with your podcasts. If you could put out a few more per week, I could cancel my Audible subscription. Just a thought…Awesome stuff!

Jon

I better figure out what Audible is!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 239: Brett Steenbarger Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Brett Steenbarger
Brett Steenbarger

My guest today is Brett Steenbarger, a Clinical Associate Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences at SUNY Upstate Medical University in Syracuse, NY.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • What a “flow state” is, and why it’s important
  • How Steenbarger has seen flow connect to the trading world, and the importance of matching your level of difficulty and challenge
  • Risk and risk tolerance
  • The logical and psychological sides to risk
  • “What have you done for me lately” attitude for investors
  • Why we don’t grow if we stay within our comfort zones
  • Process vs. outcome
  • The psychological burden of certain fee structures
  • Some of the common characteristics of successful traders
  • Slow thinking, deep thinking, and fast thinking
  • Where we’re headed regarding prescription drugs related to the mind
  • Trend trading vs. mean reversion
  • Contextualism
  • Trend following vs. momentum trading
  • How people actually behave vs. how they describe their behavior

Listen to this episode:

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Two Centuries of Trend Following

A recent trend following paper:

Synopsis: We establish the existence of anomalous excess returns based on trend following strategies across four asset classes (commodities, currencies, stock indices, bonds) and over very long time scales. We use for our studies both futures time series, that exist since 1960, and spot time series that allow us to go back to 1800 on commodities and indices. The overall t-stat of the excess returns is approx 5 since 1960 and approx 10 since 1800, after accounting for the overall upward drift of these markets. The effect is very stable, both across time and asset classes. It makes the existence of trends one of the most statistically significant anomalies in financial markets. When analyzing the trend following signal further, we find a clear saturation effect for large signals, suggesting that fundamentalist traders do not attempt to resist “weak trends”, but step in when their own signal becomes strong enough. Finally, we study the performance of trend following in the recent period. We find no sign of a statistical degradation of long trends, whereas shorter trends have significantly withered.

Download.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.