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Recreating the Turtle Experiement in the Information Age

A recent interchange:

Listener: As you know most new Macs don’t have DVD drives. Do you have a download to buy Broke?

Covel: It’s on Amazon and iTunes.

Listener: Thanks. And how about the DVD you send to people who sign up for your newsletter?

Covel: Here.

Listener: Thank you.

A few days later the same listener writes:

Listener: Michael, one of the best trades I make is listening to your podcast at night instead of going out to bars with my friends that don’t understand the value of time. I’ve had email conversations with Jerry Parker, [name] and a response from Salem Abraham. Wondering if you have any suggestions on how I may make a trade with them to take me under their wing and teach me as Richard Dennis taught Jerry and other Turtles? At 26-years old I don’t have as much to offer a billionaire as the value they’d be adding to my life and future income [is far greater].

Covel: No secrets on meeting people. Do read [Seth] Godin book, “Linchpin“. But you need to think carefully about the time needed to become an employee versus just being the boss from the beginning. The Turtle experiment will never be repeated as it was.

Listener: I’ll order it now. I’ve always been my own boss. I don’t want to work for them, I want to be mentored by them. But I can’t ask for value without offering them value. You know them. What could I offer them in return for mentorship? Never say never. You wouldn’t be where you are if you believed in never. Doesn’t mean we cant orchestrate a different version of the experiment.

Covel: DIY. The time wasted chasing the boss, or mentor, can be great. Much of the information and insights and mentoring you want is in front of you. But you want something else–so you don’t see it.

Listener: Your podcast is nothing but people who believed in themselves and didn’t listen to others when they said they couldn’t do something, including yourself. Really surprised you are so quick to discourage me from seeking mentorship. I know the way the experiment was done is extraordinary and rare. Doesn’t mean we can’t figure something out that could persuade Jerry or Salem or at least intrigue them.

Covel: You are not the only one to contact all these great traders in the day of the information age. They only have so much time. Best advice: DIY.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 334: Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Correlation with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Trend Following Machines Cash in—Again

All these years later, all these stories later, and CNBC still has a difficult time explaining trend following to the masses. One good excerpt:

Funds managed by ISAM, Cantab, AHL, Systematica and others produced double-digit gains over the first three months of 2015, according to private performance figures obtained by CNBC. “Trend followers and other macro investors clearly outperformed,” said Robert Christian, head of research at K2 Advisors and Franklin Templeton Solutions. “What’s carried people is just classic, good old trend following.”

Note: ISAM is Larry Hite’s shop. One of my favorite no-nonsense trend following pros.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

David Harding: “We Must Either Be Cheats, Charlatans or Crooks”

While going through some of my old Trend Following Radio monologues I came across this excerpt from a David Harding interview:

Interviewer: Okay, one final question. When you look back at your long and successful career, was courage rewarded in your investment decisions?

Harding: The main place I would say that courage had entered into my career, and I’m not sure whether this is virtuous courage or not, [Name] this morning differentiated between good courage and bad courage and I’m not sure whether mine is good courage or bad courage. But I can tell you that everybody, most of my career, all of the intellectual orthodoxy and all the professors and the businessmen and all the forces of respectability said that what we did was impossible. Completely theoretically impossible and therefore we must either be cheats, charlatans or crooks. To go on running your business when everyone says that what you’re doing is theoretically impossible clearly means you’re in a very lonely position. I think part of the reason I’ve been very well rewarded is out of sheer perversity. I went on doing what I was doing because I trusted the evidence of my scientific research and the evidence of my senses over received wisdom of the powers that be and the authorities in the world. So if I had any lesson, Mark Twain said, “How come when physical courage is so common, moral courage is so rare.” That saying has always had a special meaning for me because I’m particularly cowardly physically as well.

Wisdom.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 333: Gary Dayton Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Gary Dayton
Gary Dayton

My guest today is Gary Dayton. Dayton stands apart as a trading psychologist in his use of the Mindfulness-Acceptance-Commitment (MAC) approach to peak performance, a model of human behavior based on mindfulness. Dayton is a psychologist and holds a doctorate in clinical psychology and a certificate in human performance/sport psychology from Rutgers University. He is President of Peak Psychology, Inc., a consulting firm that specializes in developing “peak” performance in traders.

The topic is his book Trade Mindfully: Achieve Your Optimum Trading Performance with Mindfulness and Cutting-Edge Psychology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Mindfulness, yoga, and a turnaround in a particularly depressed patient
  • Defining mindfulness
  • How Dayton went from a clinical psychologist to integrating money, markets, trading, and investing into his work
  • The importance of a trading process
  • Looking at the lessons and research of Daniel Kahneman
  • The endowment effect
  • Price action as a heuristic
  • The importance of an exit strategy
  • Why mindfulness is the most important skill a trader can develop

Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Trader W and Trader Q

Preparing for a podcast interview with Victor Ricciardi.

Some excerpts from his book regarding trader “W” and trader “Q” that caught my eye:

Trader W manages a small hedge fund involving more than $ 10 million of assets under management. Several years ago he received the industry accolade of fund manager of the year. He subsequently closed that event-driven fund and opened a new fund using a “global macro” strategy. W is highly intelligent and analytical: “I was in the 99.9th percentile of SAT scores.” He comes from a family of high achievers and his wife has a doctorate from an Ivy League university. Struggling with performance in his new fund, W sought help. “My analysis is spot on, but I need help following through and executing trades based on it. Even if it’s a high conviction idea and I am confident in it, I end up doing trades that are impulsive.” “How can I control myself?” he asked. W explained the success of his previous fund as follows: “My analysis led me to the right market position. I was a hero to my investors and I need to be a hero again. I want to bask in the glory again.” W’s new fund uses a discretionary approach requiring many more decisions about market entries and exits , whereas his previous event-driven fund required fewer decisions. W routinely held losers well beyond his predetermined stop-loss and averaged down on losing positions. Taking a loss frequently resulted in a sequence of impulsive trades. W stated, “I have a strong need to be right, being wrong is difficult to tolerate.” When asked to explain his need to be right, he replied, “It’s as if loss is unacceptable to me; it’s an existential threat; I’ll do anything to avoid this existential threat.” When asked to describe what the existential threat feels like, he was at a loss for words, saying only, “It’s extreme.” Source: Baker, H. Kent; Ricciardi, Victor (2014-02-06). Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing (Wiley Finance).

And:

“I need the market to talk to me […]. I need to know it, I need to just look at it and know which way it’s going to move, the eyes, the legs, you know, I want to move the way the market goes; I’m trying to get that extrasensory perception.” So began a three-year coaching relationship with Trader Q, who traded at a proprietary trading firm. He sought help for both his quantitative and discretionary trading. Q was a PhD physicist with multiple additional academic credentials including a master’s degree in financial engineering. Q wanted to increase his ability to access his intuition to improve his trading performance. This case highlights using interventions for increased psychophysical awareness designed to help Q to better execute his decisions confidently in the midst of financial market uncertainty. Q was implicitly displaying the realization that the ability to envision the thoughts and feelings of others–a construct called Theory of Mind—could improve his performance. According to Q, the market is “an object with tons of people implementing something in that software; they are debating within themselves; probably their emotions are incorporated in that chart.” Source: Baker, H. Kent; Ricciardi, Victor (2014-02-06). Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing (Wiley Finance).

And:

Q’s personality tended toward anxiety, obsessive thinking, interpersonal insecurity, and a compulsive drive for control. He managed his anxiety through elaborate analysis that ironically tended to obscure the phenomena he was trying to understand. Spontaneity was lacking as deliberate routines were his strong, even debilitating, preference. When gripped with self-doubt, as was frequently his situation, he resorted to acquiring more intellectual knowledge, believing it would settle emotional turmoil. Nevertheless, no matter how many mathematical models he used to make sense of his world, they always seemed to produce a repetitious conclusion and feeling state: I’m not safe. Source: Baker, H. Kent; Ricciardi, Victor (2014-02-06). Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing (Wiley Finance).

Interesting. You can see Trader W and Trader Q get some of it, but are clearly lost on other parts of it.

It?

You need to figure that out.

Watch the Tails
Watch the Tails

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Hard Part About Surfing

Feedback in:

Hey Michael, Not sure if you caught Seth Godin’s most recent blog post, so I thought I’d pass it along:


Surfing, the conceptual kind, is more essential than ever, it’s not optional. And the hardest part of surfing, by far, is paddling out, not surfing in. Carrying the board, getting back into the water, paddling through the waves, waiting for the next set…it’s exhausting, and surfers spend far more time doing this than they do on the other part. Having the guts to surf is what change demands. And finding the stamina to paddle back out is a key part of surfing.


I thought it had many parallels to trend following. Enjoy!

[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.