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Trend Following Wisdom from Dalio

A recent email in:

(Indavertent) TF Wisdom from Dalio:

“To make money in the markets, you have to think independently and be humble. You have to be an independent thinker because you can’t make money agreeing with the consensus view, which is already embedded in the price. Yet whenever you’re betting against the consensus there’s a significant probability you’re going to be wrong, so you have to be humble.”

Wisdom from a man that knows how to trade unexpected trends in a 100% systematic fashion.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 336: Colin Camerer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Colin Camerer
Colin Camerer

My guest today is Colin Camerer, an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is on the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. This work seeks a better understanding of the psychological and neurobiological basis of decision-making in order to determine the validity of models of human economic behavior. His research uses mostly economics experiments—and occasionally field studies—to understand how people behave when making decisions (e.g., risky gambles for money), in games, and in markets (e.g., speculative price bubbles).

The topics are cognitive psychology and economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why Camerer was called a child prodigy, and how he looks at that term in the context of nurture vs. nature
  • Synthesizing behavioral economics and neuroscience; understanding Camerer’s studies when traders aren’t looking at the market on a day-to-day basis; how we can stimulate the brain to create a bubble
  • The ethical issues surrounding Camerer’s work
  • Machine learning and data mining
  • Neuroscience and game theory
  • Comparing humans and chimps in the study of neuroscience
  • How trust correlates with economic growth
  • How emotion functions in the modern world

Listen to this episode:

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“Your Books and Podcast Had A Decisive Influence on My Investment Success”

Feedback in:

Dear Michael,

Thanks a lot for connecting. I have been following your outstanding work for many years and the information I gathered from your books and podcasts had a decisive influence on my investment success.

After studying “trend following” with your books I have started to trade futures with a small trading account and after the usual complications at the beginning, I have been quite successful with your strategy.

Besides trading, your podcasts have brought to me brilliant insights into other areas, (Media, Psychology, Politics, etc.) for which I am very grateful.

Thanks a lot for your inspiration and please keep on doing what you do. It is surely very important to many people.

Best regards from Singapore.
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

JWH, Farming and Trend Following: New Trader Inspiration

Feedback in:

I just wanted to start off by saying thank you for making so many resources readily available to learn more about trend following trading.

I have been trading commodity futures for a little over 2 years now and have just recently (within the last 3 months) introduced to trend following trading. Trend following is the trading method that makes the most sense to me and the only method I can see leading to a lifetime of returns. Just recently started reading your Trend Following book and it is already resonating with me and enforcing the idea that this is the trading system for me.

I have also been an avid listener of your podcasts. Really enjoy that you dive in to more than just the trading systems themselves but rather how the individuals got their start and found trend following. I also am a fan of the podcasts that discuss the mental side of trading–the most important part.

One final question, from learning more about the trend following world have become interested in learning more about John W. Henry because like him I am a young farmer. Would ever be a guest on the podcast?

Thanks again and look forward to hearing from you.

[Name]

John W. Henry would be a great guest.

Gotta Lie To Get Invited Back

After posting the below commentary on my Facebook page I got an interesting response:

This exchange followed:

Alan: Thank you for your thoughtful analysis of my market commentary March 16th. A “Trend Follower” should appreciate my confidence and reasoning that the bull run is still intact. As a market veteran of 25 years with thousands of TV appearances this may be a great opportunity to discuss the insignificance of news nonsense with your podcast listeners. Pick a time I would like to come on to talk media and its negative impact on trading discipline. I am the first to tell traders to turn off the TV as there is very little to help you make money. It is mostly infotainment to keep you emotional and tuned in to pay advertisers. In fact, I have developed a financial news aggregator to search, sort and share market video. The time saving app breaks down the markets into categories and plots the videos from news sources on price and time charts for perspective. That said I make the best effort to give a well thought out actionable trade idea on each of my appearances as opposed to speaking in broad generalizations. Trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. It should be methodical and boring and as we all know watching television to cheer lead positions does not add to profitability. Looking forward to schedule the podcast interview.

Covel: Hold on. You are the guy on CNN? The guy with videos literally every day providing near useless fundamental factoids and interpretations of what will happen next? And now you are emailing me to say trading is all about risk control, probability, money management and implementation of a trading plan. Don’t you think that is disingenuous? You tell me you have made 1000s of appearances, but [now] you tell people not to watch? I am not [Jim] Cramer. My podcast is not that. Best we agree to disagree right here, unless you can convince me how my eyes are lying to me when I watch your videos of broad generalizations.

Alan: I cannot change the game if I do not appear on TV. Producers and hosts do not understand the markets and create a crisis de jour. My job is to be optimistic of opportunities in any and all market conditions. Stressing a plan of action instead of fear is what I do. Having CNBC on for 10 hours a day or watching Cramer doesn’t help anybody make money. At best it may give 2-3 nuggets of information that could be explored for profit potential. People think news helps when in fact the WHY is of no importance compared to the HOW the market is moving.

Covel: You can’t let the TV hand feed you non-stop and then bite the same hand. None of what you are saying to me was on CNN.

Alan: I gave CNN reasons why I remain optimistic at a time when investors have renewed fears. Calm confidence. Participating in the TV discussion is more productive than not doing so to showcase my disciplined approach. My development of the [name] shows my recognition of this news noise issue and the need to better inform investors.

Covel: Maybe you know the truth, but to appear on TV so much is for you to play a game–their game. Try appearing on TV and tell the real truth. They won’t ask you back. Then you will have made a real advance in your credibility.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Radio Feedback

Feedback in:

Michael,

Hope all is well. I thought it was only appropriate to connect with you after listening to probably around 100 of your podcasts. I live in Silver Spring and every day on my commute to Exelon (energy company, where I work in Baltimore), I listen to your podcasts.

I am 27-years old now and for the past 4-5 years I have been learning how to trade based on technical analysis and price action. A few years ago, I learned that simple is better in terms of indicators/trade setups and risk management is key to not blowing up my account. My current strategy consists of two general trades; swing trades (buying on pullbacks to long term trend lines) and buying breakouts of consolidations or to new highs. The indicators I use are trend lines (horizontal/diagonal), volume, candlesticks, moving averages as support and resistance and relative strength vs the S&P 500.

After listening to many of your podcasts, the commonalities between the traders and portfolio managers are apparent and have become part of the way I think and part of my rules. I am emailing you for two reasons; firstly, to thank you for all the great podcasts and for giving me a place to hear from like-minded individuals. Secondly, I am trying to find a a mentor to help me find a way to turn my part time hobby/passion outside of work, into a career. Are there any trend following/price action based traders/portfolio managers that you know of in the Washington, DC metro area? Also, if you have some time, it would be great to talk with you.

Have a great weekend Sunday in Asia.

Regards,
[Name]

Thanks for the note. Many issues related to mentorship are sprinkled throughout my podcast monologues. Circle back on those. More thoughts on mentorship? The DIY effort seen across Godin blog–is highly recommended.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 335: The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Bitcoin Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.