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Tag: performance

Hit The !@#$ Home Run!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Some companies, and individuals, stress [focus on] the short-term performance of trend followers. They look at one month’s performance, see a down month, and panic. They have complete ignorance of the long-term objective–big money. How bad can it get? I have seen trend following traders make 100 percent in a year followed by a year where they lost 5 percent. That 5 percent loss causes some critics to not see the 100 percent number. That is insane thinking. Just like a baseball player’s batting average can have short-term up or down streaks over the course of a season, trend followers have streaks. Trend following performance will deviate from averages, but over time there is remarkable consistency when it comes to putting up big returns—as long as unpredictable home runs are allowed to happen naturally and unforced. The leading thinkers across varied fields, including insurance, casino gambling, and investing, all emphasize the same point. It’s the Babe Ruth effect: Even though Ruth struck out a lot, he was one of baseball’s greatest hitters. The home runs made up for his strikeouts. A trend follower coaching a baseball team would approach it like the former manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Earl Weaver designed his offenses to maximize the chance of a three-run homer. Weaver did not bunt or want guys who slapped singles. He wanted guys who hit big home runs. Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between.

Note: From my book Trend Commandments. Shout to Michael Mauboussin.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Works Across all Markets

Posted on by Michael Covel

Looking for a system that works in all markets? Consider some feedback:

Hello Mr. Covel from Turkey, I have read your book. I have been interested [in] trendfollowing for 4 years, but I am look[ing] for [a] trading system that work[s] for everything–all markets. I have not found the system that works [for] everything, and it makes me angry. Can you give me advise [on a] system that work[s] everywhere?

Best Regards,
[Name]

Note: I have been back testing for 4 years.

My trading systems work on all markets: read. Have you reviewed? Also, don’t be angry. That won’t help you.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Give Me the Data; Don’t Whine

Posted on by Michael Covel

You have a trading strategy that works? Prove it. Give me the empirical data. Or you can go this direction:

When people see something they love is under threat, their first reaction is to build an “impenetrable” wall, a Maginot Line–and just to be extra safe they decide to enclose a bit more territory, a buffer zone, inside its fortifications. It seems like a good, prudent idea. It seems to protect us from the awful slippery slope, the insidious thin edge of the wedge, and as everyone knows, if you give them an inch, they’ll take a mile. Dig the moat! Build the wall! And as far out as you can afford. But this policy typically burdens the defenders with a brittle, extravagant (implausible, indefensible) set of dogmas that cannot be defended rationally–and hence must be defended, in the end, with desperate clawing and shouting.

Start with the data. Then clawing and shouting go away.

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Source: Dennett, Daniel C. (2013-05-06). Intuition Pumps And Other Tools for Thinking (p. 204). W. W. Norton & Company. Kindle Edition.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Practice Patience or Not; Your Choice

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, since I started trading the system with real money, I’ve had a more difficult time getting traction. However, this is because I started at the beginning of March when leadership rotation kicked in big time and the main US equity indices basically stopped trending. Are you seeing others having a similar experience over the last 8 or so weeks?

Peter

Two months is two months. Just a blip on the screen relatively speaking for trend following. You have examined typical trend following records in my books, for example?

Big picture is big picture. Small picture is small picture.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Your Neighbor Might Not Be Your Best Gauge

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Mike, I’m very happy to correspond with you. I have read 80% of all trades are losers. Do you have statical data regarding the success of traders after having taken [your training and applying your systems]? Thank you, Terry

Thanks for the question.

I can teach clients, but I can’t force anyone to disclose anything or track their brokerage accounts. Frankly, I don’t want to force anyone to do anything. You can read success stories from our products here, but ultimately this comes down to a client sticking with a trend trading system.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

17% Per Year?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Hey Mike, I’ve been wondering something about the returns of trend followers throughout the decades and I would like to hear your opinion. I believe I once heard you say that the average trend follower according to the data available indicates an average return of about 17% annually (Correct me if I’m wrong). However, I can’t help but think of the incredible returns of hundreds to thousands of percent that Jesse Livermore and others in day like Bernard Baruch (don’t know if he was a trend follower) was able to achieve. If I remember correctly, at one point, Livermore was doubling his money almost weekly. What do you think is the reason for such astronomical returns? I think there was more to it than just the 10 to 1 stock leverage of their era. Do you think it was because of Livermore’s poor money management? He did have a tendency to bet to entirely too much on his trades. Perhaps it was the combination of betting too much plus the 10:1 stock leverage. What do you think?

There is not some one set return number for Trend Following (i.e. 17%). Those old guys? You have their audited returns?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Diversification is Key to Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback:

Hey Mike, I was thinking about your recent podcast where you talked about how the sharks were posting Bill Dunn’s worst years to demonstrate the failure of trading. It reminded me of the recent articles on John Paulson. You may have read that his gold fund is doing horribly this year. Down 65%. Just like with Bill Dunn, people who don’t understand trading are just salivating over this demonstration of the “failure of trading”. The fund only represents 2% of Paulson’s funds. If this fund operates totally independently of his others funds then I might be inclined to agree with some of the criticism Mike. I can’t understand how any professional trader of Paulson’s caliber could allow his fund to lose 65% of assets. Also, I can’t understand why any professional trader could have looked at a gold chart for the past few years and decide to go long which is the only way that I can imagine that he could be down 65%. If he does incorporate counter trending strategies and was long then I don’t understand why his stops didn’t prevent such a massive loss. On the other hand Mike, if this fund does not operate totally independent, but operates as part of all of his assets, then my view would be totally different. A 2% investment of total funds under management while a bit high, is not a totally unreasonable amount for a professional to risk on a trade. Furthermore if that is the case, just think about it Mike. A 65% unrealized loss on a particular trade means you’re still in the trade. We are actually willing to risk 100% of the 1% or so that we risk on each trade. I don’t think some people realize that. If you have $100,000 trading account and you risk $1000, 65% down in that trade means you are still in the trade. The trade doesn’t end until you either get stopped at a 100% loss of the $1,000 or you take profits of 2:1 or 3:1 on that trade. Some people don’t seem to realize that about trading.

Confusion here.

65% loss on one market is not trend following! Where is the cutting of loss? Dunn’s drawdown was from taking many small losses across many markets. They add up. No one drop on one market. Plus there really can’t be a trend following fund on one market alone. That means no diversification and that is a recipe for failure.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.