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Tag: daniel dennett

Ep. 376: Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The use and misuse of statistics
  • Using skepticism to your advantage
  • The advantages of algorithmic trading
  • Leda Braga on why ‘Black Box’ isn’t a fair term
  • Daniel Dennett’s simplifications of algorithms and computing
  • Trend following as simple agnostic rules that can easily be passed to a computer
  • Efficient market theory failure during surprises

“You want to be a contrarian. You want to be on the other side of the coin. Don’t be with everyone. Stand to the side. That’s where the opportunity is…” – Michael Covel

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Ep. 366: The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Having a foundation, a system to get through the noise
  • Developing a statistical mindset
  • Understanding risk and knowing how to deal with it
  • Getting “under the hood” of any trading system
  • Richard Feynman’s lecture on computer heuristics
  • What computer heuristics have to do with systems trading
  • A trait that geniuses have in common
  • The importance of isolation and concentration in learning

“The most important thing is to feel about things you should feel about, and think about things you should think about.” – Penn Jillette

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below.

Give Me the Data; Don’t Whine

Posted on by Michael Covel

You have a trading strategy that works? Prove it. Give me the empirical data. Or you can go this direction:

When people see something they love is under threat, their first reaction is to build an “impenetrable” wall, a Maginot Line–and just to be extra safe they decide to enclose a bit more territory, a buffer zone, inside its fortifications. It seems like a good, prudent idea. It seems to protect us from the awful slippery slope, the insidious thin edge of the wedge, and as everyone knows, if you give them an inch, they’ll take a mile. Dig the moat! Build the wall! And as far out as you can afford. But this policy typically burdens the defenders with a brittle, extravagant (implausible, indefensible) set of dogmas that cannot be defended rationally–and hence must be defended, in the end, with desperate clawing and shouting.

Start with the data. Then clawing and shouting go away.

connectome

Source: Dennett, Daniel C. (2013-05-06). Intuition Pumps And Other Tools for Thinking (p. 204). W. W. Norton & Company. Kindle Edition.

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