Please enjoy my monologue Michael Covel Speech and William Ury Interview on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.
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While going through some of my old Trend Following Radio monologues I came across this excerpt from a David Harding interview:
Interviewer: Okay, one final question. When you look back at your long and successful career, was courage rewarded in your investment decisions?
Harding: The main place I would say that courage had entered into my career, and I’m not sure whether this is virtuous courage or not, [Name] this morning differentiated between good courage and bad courage and I’m not sure whether mine is good courage or bad courage. But I can tell you that everybody, most of my career, all of the intellectual orthodoxy and all the professors and the businessmen and all the forces of respectability said that what we did was impossible. Completely theoretically impossible and therefore we must either be cheats, charlatans or crooks. To go on running your business when everyone says that what you’re doing is theoretically impossible clearly means you’re in a very lonely position. I think part of the reason I’ve been very well rewarded is out of sheer perversity. I went on doing what I was doing because I trusted the evidence of my scientific research and the evidence of my senses over received wisdom of the powers that be and the authorities in the world. So if I had any lesson, Mark Twain said, “How come when physical courage is so common, moral courage is so rare.” That saying has always had a special meaning for me because I’m particularly cowardly physically as well.
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
First performance column is December 2014. Second column contains 2014 totals:
Note: Shout to Jez Liberty and IASG for performance aggregation.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
After you compare #TrendFollowing to long only S&P performance, don't forget #antifragility comparisons too.
— Michael Covel (@Covel) January 8, 2015
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
Feedback in:
Dear Mr. Covel, Trust you must be doing great. I have read all of your books many times & I really admire you for your methodical approach to markets. I am a IIT-IIM Graduate with more than 22 years of experience in India Capital Markets. I have been able to predict the market turns with close to 90% accuracy with verifiable track record. I appear on CNBC, ZEE Business & ET-NOW regularly. I am really passionate towards my profession. I run a boutique Alternative Investment Management firm specializing in generating positive returns irrespective of Market Direction. We are proficient in all types of Technical Analysis based trading.
1. Conventional Pattern Recognition Based Trading
2. Computerized Algorithm Based Trading
3. Predictive Methodology Based Analysis
4. Behavioral Studies based on Market’s Psychological ProfileI have a proposal to launch an Absolute Alpha Global Hedge Fund using hugely diversified strategies for trading in multiple asset classes such as different Global Equity Indices, Commodities & Currencies. As we will be using just 30% fund in trading, more than 60% funds will be used in Global Arbitrage to generate fixed income for balancing the risk. We are fully confident that we will be able to give more than 20% positive returns per annum in USD terms with less than 10% Equity drawdown. We wish to create a Global Hedge Fund which specializes in generating super normal positive returns every year. This structure has humongous potential to become a hugely successful Fund in just 2 to 3 years. I have 100% conviction in my abilities to deliver the real performance. An association with your company will give us everything what we are looking for. I look forward to hear positively from you soon to make my dream into reality. I promise you to give my 100% efforts to deliver more than the promise.
Thanks & warm regards,
[Name]
I don’t recall ever writing about 90% accuracy. Isn’t that the Holy Grail of all Holy Grails? Even if you had that accuracy how does it guarantee you make money? You could be accurate 90% of the time and still lose massive money on the other 10%. Accuracy talk is not trend following.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
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• Trading Technology
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
Consider an illustration that can make you rich:
Trend following does not pick bottoms or tops. You always get into a trend late, and get out late. You cannot predict a trend. That chart might not seem like a great strategy at first glance, but it is the foundation of one of the most profitable insights in the history of market speculation: capture the middle meat and you can make a fortune.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.
Feedback in:
Hey Michael,
Recently I started listening to your podcast and have been researching a bit of what you have been saying. I find your podcast I be extremely informative. I think sometimes it’s the kind of kick in the ass the public needs so I am glad you are out there speaking your mind on a lot of important topics.
I did find a lot of research verifying that trend following is a valid strategy and one where a lot of people have made a decent amount of money. However, I couldn’t find very good information as far as annual returns over the long-term goes. Can you send me some of this?
The trend following system, in general, makes a lot of sense. Trends happen, obviously. Those who want to be a passenger can be and can make a lot of money. Intuitively I like the idea. It appeals to my sense of logic. You’re not trying to figure out anything. You’re merely saying, I don’t know where this will go, it seems to be going somewhere, and you buckle your seat belt. The seat belt is the stop-loss in this analogy.
Anyhow, just wanted to send a kudos your way. Keep up the good work. Would like to hear you talk more about a lot of people that are in boats they never thought they’d be in. For instance, in my case, I got myself into a lot of debt via students loans. It’s not an easy ride in this economy to have a degree no one cares about (I have an MBA). Agree with the entrepreneurial lifestyle. I worked a dead-end job for a bit of time and now am ready to move on to something new and try to get out of the “zombie-like” mindset.
I have subscribed to a while to value investing and found lots of research to show it does work. The problem with value investing, compared to trend following, is that it takes a tremendous amount of work to try to figure out something the market doesn’t already know or find where the market differs from the underlying value of a company. Trend following seems to hold up the white flag and say, “Listen, I surrender, you beat me Mr. Market, now where do you want to go?”
Regards,
Larry H.
Thanks! Data? See.
How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.
Also jump in:
• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us
Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.