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Tag: feedback

New Trend Following Chinese Trader

Posted on by Michael Covel

A recent exchange:

Yuhui: When knowing that if someone strictly uses a trading system that its mathematical expectation is positive in a long time then he will get profit, but a question suddenly came to my mind: What will happen if everyone trades like this? Although in your book[s] you have listed several reasons why there are always many people won’t be the trend traders, but [a] positive math expectation trading system can be easily written to the computer and automatically executed by the computers now. Meanwhile, It’s said that this kind automatic trading system is already generally used in the futures market. I want to know what do you think how trend-trading will [perform] when in this condition. What’s more, I’m wondering about how your life is currently. As a successful trader are you living a free and relaxing life, or busy in dealing with the matter of your company. Finally, if possible, expecting the trend-following DVD, my address is [address] and my telephone number is [#], and my name is Yuhui (喻 辉).

Covel: My five books outline why not everyone will become a trend following trader. It’s often against human nature and people dislike drawdowns. They seem more comfortable with black swans that wipe it out all (their accounts that is). You can follow my life here: podcast.

Yuhui: Thanks for replying. Have read your books again and again and some story impressed me very much. Also read the reason you list why not everyone become a trend following trader. But once upon a time I read a book and remembering that the introduction of the author saying that his average income of programming automatic futures trading system can be up to 8% per month. So I just have an idea that what if everyone trades like him in the market? Maybe this condition will never happen because people are easy to be influenced by the cognitive bias in the trading, but somehow I still feel confused about this. And here is my address in Chinese and English.

Covel: 8% a month? Not a wise goal. That will not happen on a consistent basis that you can count on.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Who Can Accurately Forecast? No One!

Posted on by Michael Covel

This article excerpt from Joshua Brown recently came into my in box:

People Who Cannot Accurately Forecast Markets

1. Hedge fund managers
2. Wall Street’s top strategists
3. Technical analysts
4. Day-traders
5. Swing-traders
6. Newsletter writers and book authors
7. Journalists
8. Financial advisors
9. Your dentist
10. Leading finance professors
11. Famous economists
12. Bloggers and columnists
13. Tweeters
14. Horses who count with their hooves
15. Astrologers
16. Value investors
17. Investment clubs
18. Message board aficionados
19. TV hosts
20. Mutual fund managers
21. Sell-side analysts
22. ETF companies
23. Institutions, pensions and endowments
24. Me
25. You

Nice.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Your Podcast Is the Best Thing in Media”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Todd Foster writes:

Just wanted to say that your podcast is the best thing in media. Content is so thought provoking. Your style with guests is gracious and engaging. You appear to be a great example of purposeful living, and you’re positive energy is contagious. Thank you!

Thanks Todd.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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• Frequently Asked Questions
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

High Winning Percentage: Not Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Michael, I’ve enjoyed your books on trend following and your podcast for several years. The foundational truth and simplicity in trend following inspired me to create my own ETF trend following trading strategy in 2007. I call this [name].

The objective of [name] is to identify markets that are trending up and to sell or to short markets that are trending down and to avoid and significant losses on any single trade. No surprises here for you.

The composite average of my returns over the past six years has been solidly better than the benchmark averages as illustrated below:

The six year cumulative return (2008-2013) by asset class, of my [name] signals is as follows:

Benchmark. [name]
US Stock Indexes. 36.6%. 221.1%
S&P Sectors 36.6%. 474.1%
Commodities. (29.9%). 399.2%
World Stock Indexes. (27.0 %). 87.4%
Currencies. 0.7%. 2.1%
Bonds. 11.7%. 55.0%

[name] winning trade signals were 78% winners in 2013 on 265 trades covering all markets that I follow. Historically this winning trade percentage is around 85%.

I have published a weekly newsletter since [date] that gives my readers buy and sell signals at times for 40 different markets. I’ve now narrowed that coverage to just under 30 markets over five different asset classes: US Stock Indexes, S&P 500 Sectors, Commodities, World Stock Indexes, and Bonds. I use to cover Currency but returns were so small after six years that I’ve abandoned this asset group.

I don’t have a strong readership following as I guess I’m not the best marketer. To be honest this is not my full time job. I’ve been a Aerospace Industry CFO since [date]. As managing risk is one of my core responsibilities, trend following seemed a very logical approach to investing to me. I did get my start in the securities business in 1981 after graduating college. So I’ve been an active trader since. I’ve found nothing more effective to use in my personal trading experience, which is where and why I started. After reading your books you gave me the inspiration to try to find a an approach that would work for me. Upon coming up with my strategies, I started to share it with my friends. As of now, no one is paying for my service, I just like sharing my approach with close friends and a few people who had paid me for a subscription in the past.

I’ve attached my past six years history performance for of my signals compared to my benchmark markets as well as my current newsletter.

As the world’s leading authority on trend following I would respectfully enjoy hearing your comments.

Regards,

[Name]
[Country]

Thanks for the note. I have a full schedule now, but perhaps in months to come can examine in detail.

Your winning percentage however means you are not a trend follower, correct?

Note: Rhetorical from me. High winning percentage is not trend following. His effort may be fine, but what he describes in this email is not trend following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

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• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Covel Showed Me The Door, I Just Walked Through It”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

I have just started my trend following journey. I had discovered this method in trying and failing for years at forex although I haven’t lost more than a few hundred thus far. Naturally once I heard the term trend following I immediately had an Aha moment. I am a regular or less than regular 30 year old uneducated guy. I have spent most of my life though learning about everything. I have taught myself a lot over the years so I’ve always known I could beat the market. Being a poor person has left me with little or no capital to make any realistic gains and when I have hear comes all the shit over data and news, and wiped me out. And every time I get mad at my self for not performing to my own standards which I see as my potential. I am writing you this letter because I have found myself in desperate times for a number of personal reasons, but in discovery of trend following I have found my way even if it takes me years. I have listened to almost everyone of your podcasts! and consumed as much information I can from anywhere I can. I would like to thank you for giving all us poor people a free opportunity to learn not for the magic bullet buy here sell there but for the general idea and the wisdom of saying see what you can do. I am currently trading forex with this method do to my limited capital and my ability to leverage. Whether I am successful or not time will tell but I’d like to thank you for everything you do basically for free and if I do make it I’ll have to say, “Michael Covel showed me the door, I just walked through it.”

Thanks,
Adam

Adam, thanks, but no more calling yourself poor. Poor is temporary, in mind and wallet.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Bhagavad Gita and Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I have been following you now for the last -2- years and always look forward to the various podcasts. Absolute gems they are. I have read all your books and they are all master pieces for trend followers like me. The more I read them, hear to your interviews so many great traders and their psychology including the moment of now. I would request you to read the “The Bhagavad Gita” as it is, by ISKCON. The book should be available in the US as there are many ISKCON temples.

Regards,
Sriram [Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.