This article excerpt from Joshua Brown recently came into my in box:
People Who Cannot Accurately Forecast Markets
1. Hedge fund managers
2. Wall Street’s top strategists
3. Technical analysts
6. Newsletter writers and book authors
8. Financial advisors
9. Your dentist
10. Leading finance professors
11. Famous economists
12. Bloggers and columnists
14. Horses who count with their hooves
16. Value investors
17. Investment clubs
18. Message board aficionados
19. TV hosts
20. Mutual fund managers
21. Sell-side analysts
22. ETF companies
23. Institutions, pensions and endowments
Many think markets can be made safe. They truly believe there is a way to predict tomorrow and thus watch their accounts go straight up over time. Once all of the nasty unsafe stuff is cut, life becomes roses. A great example of the desire for ultimate protection can be seen in the ban of these stamps by the United States Post Office:
“With the Just Move! stamp issuance the U.S. Postal Service hoped to raise awareness about the importance of physical activity in achieving a healthy lifestyle. However, according to Linns Stamp News, the USPS will be destroying the entire press run after receiving concerns from the President’s Council on Fitness, Sports & Nutrition over alleged “unsafe” acts depicted on three of the stamps (cannonball dive, skateboarding without kneepads and a headstand without a helmet). (There’s also a batter without a batting helmet, a girl balancing on a slippery rock, and a soccer player without kneepads or shin pads.)”
Here they are:
Beam me up!
An economic forecast is more like analysis of a criminal mind than evaluation of economic data.
From Alan Moore in his Watchmen:
We’re all puppets, Laurie. I’m just a puppet who can see the strings.
There, the playing field you face in easy synopsis. Now what?