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Trend Following and Controlled Baseball

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This post [below in italics] brings up some thoughts on selling trend following. Selling the logic of how and why it works doesn’t seem to pump people up enough to get them to try it. Its a story people don’t want to listen to even if it’s true. When it comes to investing, I feel people want to buy something that caters to their laziness, them wanting to feel cool or safe. I find it funny when trend traders scratch their heads wondering why more people aren’t investing this way. But the psychology that keeps them from investing in it is the same psychology that provides trend following profits. To me, it’s an interesting paradox.

Kanri Yaku (by S. Godin): Literally, “controlled baseball.” If you’re playing this way, it’s by the numbers. The manager tells you precisely what to do, and you do it. There are algorithms for when to bunt, for when to throw a ball. And there is no room for surprise. It is ground out (not a pun), controlled and predictable. Kanri yakyu will often get you into the playoffs. It rarely means you’re going to win the big games, though. The secret is being able to play this way when you need to, but being brave enough to leap when it’s least expected. Just like your career.

Nice.


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Starting From The Ground Up

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Hi Mike, I’m looking for a way to connect with a trend following firm that can give me the chance to trade with a small account. I graduated last May with a B.A in economics from Baruch College. I have been testing and improving the trend following system I’m using for the past 2 years. I’m ready to exploit the system but I do not know where to begin. What would you advise me to do?

Raise capital, i.e. family, friends, etc. Very straightforward. It doesn’t matter how you do it or where it comes from–just do it.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Tough Love

A recent random conversation with a stranger:

[Name]: Good evening Michael, are you coming back to HCM City?

Michael: Why?

[Name]: Could I invite you to a cup of coffee in HCM city? In the coffee shop near your hotel?

Michael: Can I ask how I can help? What would you like?

[Name]: My goal is just [to] make friends and learn from you.

Michael: The best way to learn from me is not to meet with me now.

[Name]: The same as when you meet other successful traders. I don’t intend to harm or bring a bad thing to you.

Michael: I did not think that, but the best way to learn from me right now is not to meet me.

[Name]: I read many books by you. If you were me, you always want to meet the author of a book. If you are a trader you always want to meet successful traders.

Michael: Listen to Howard Lindzon podcast and read book “Linchpin” by Seth Godin. Then you will know more how I think about random meetings. My advice is useful.

[Name]: Just spend about 1 hour in a coffee shop. I think it isn’t difficult.

Michael: Now you are not listening to my advice. Even less interested to meet. Best of luck.

Tough love? You bet. Did he hear me? No.


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Warren Buffett on Retirement Strategies

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Michael, thought you might enjoy a good laugh from this article (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-guide-retirement-investing-143658304.html). I know you’ve talked about Warren Buffet before, but there were some real gems included in this one so I felt compelled to share.

Enjoy, and keep up the good work!

Brooks

Thanks. Worth comparing that to this page that can be found at Yale.


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Trend Following Goes By Many Names

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Hi Michael, I just sent you a friend request, I don’t really use Facebook, not very schooled up on appropriate. Facebook told me I should know you personally to friend you…guess I’ll find out.

You’re on it. I have been listening to you for the past couple months and all I have to say is AMEN brother. Trend following has always been my goal though it hasn’t been until recently I knew it as “trend following”. I’d love to chat sometime but I know you’re a busy guy bringing to light the best for a lot of people.

Learning/trading/systems testing has been my life for the last year and a half. Lonely…nobody gets it. And yet, they are all heading for the same inevitable retirement scenario…there isn’t one, at least for your conventional 9-5er’s. I could rant, but you know it already…

At the sure chance I’ll be preaching to the choir, I would love to hear something on managing 401k’s from a trend following perspective. There are some interesting challenges in 401K’s. Holding periods/penalties and most only offer a specific list of investment options. This is something I am currently beginning to work on for mine and my wife’s retirement accounts, I am sure I can increase the returns with backtested timing models.

Anyway, thanks for your work.

Justin

Welcome! Some retirement information on the podcast in the near future. Good point.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Psychology of Losing

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Mike. Are you ever returning to San Diego? How is yoga and world travels? Here is a quote from a guy that has sold millions of books and truly just about sums up the masses and the psychology of losing: “If you made money in 2008, you did something wrong” from Ben Stein. Ok, thought you would get a kick out of it.

Joe C.

I used that quote to start my Little Book of Trading released summer 2011.

I’m in Asia now and the yoga is great!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
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About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Stops. Just Stops.

Feedback in for a new podcast idea:

Podcast idea: How do you reconcile “Let your profits run” with “Pigs get slaughtered?”

Easy — a stop.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.