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Category: Risk Management

Ep. 380: Lessons from Ken Tropin with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ken Tropin
Ken Tropin

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Please enjoy my monologue Lessons from Ken Tropin with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Recognizing that without a strategy, you’re at the mercy of the machine
  • Embracing uncertainty
  • Understanding that knowing every market move won’t help without a plan
  • The importance of setting your strategy beforehand
  • Seeing that media personalities are paid to pretend to know all
  • How the principles of trend following apply to other disciplines

“Trend following is one of the most mature and well-established systematic trading styles with a thirty-three year track record of profitability.” – Ken Tropin

Mentions & Resources:

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

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Ep. 378: Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Understanding that success requires failure
  • Seeing past investment myths
  • Recognizing that no risk means no profits
  • Understanding that there’s no such thing as a perfect strategy
  • Shattering the notion that someone will always take care of you
  • Accepting that there are no guarantees

“I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

“Improve Our Odds While Controlling the Risk”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I have read one of your books, bought your movie, “/broke/”, from Amazon.com, and have been a podcast listener/fan for over 2 years now. I am a William O’Neill-style, long [term] stock trader, but as a computer programmer and system architect by trade, I am refining my own trading style on more of a trend following rooted philosophy. That is why I cannot stop listening to your podcast. It is great from your insight/commentary to the top-notch and interesting guests that you showcase! I would say it rivals the quality of TED Talks for me.

Anyway, I appreciate you making this information available so those traders like me can continue to learn and improve our odds while controlling the risk. Take care!

Sincerely,
[Name]

Thanks for the nice words.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Truth: A Two-Edged Sword

Posted on by Michael Covel

The truth is, almost everything about superior investing is a two-edged sword:

-If you invest, you will lose money if the market declines.
-If you don’t invest, you will miss out on gains if the market rises.

-Market timing will add value if it can be done right.
-Buy-and-hold will produce better results if timing can’t be done right.

-Aggressiveness will help when the market rises but hurt when it falls.
-Defensiveness will help when the market falls but hurt when it rises.

-If you concentrate your portfolio, your mistakes will kill you.
-If you diversify, the payoff from your successes will be diminished.

-If you employ leverage, your successes will be magnified.
-If you employ leverage, your mistakes will be magnified.

HT Howard Marks.

More on stretching the truth.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 345: Spyros Makridakis Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Spyros Makridakis
Spyros Makridakis

My guest today is Spyros Makridakis, the Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is famous as the organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions. His calling is to poke holes in the notion that we can forecast with accuracy.

The topic is his paper Why Forecasts Fail. What to Do Instead.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
  • The two main types of uncertainty–“subway” and “coconut”
  • Jim Collins, one of the best-selling business book authors of all time, and why it might not have any use to us
  • Medicine and chance
  • The placebo effect
  • Acceptance of an uncertain world
  • The illusion of control

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 342: Victor Ricciardi Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Victor Ricciardi
Victor Ricciardi

My guest today is Victor Ricciardi, an Assistant Professor of Financial Management at Goucher College. Professor Ricciardi is a leading expert on the academic literature and emerging research issues in behavioral finance. He is the editor of several eJournals distributed by the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). Ricciardi is also the co-editor of the book Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing.

The topic is behavioral finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Risk perception vs. risk tolerance
  • The affect and the anchoring heuristic
  • Behavioral finance vs. behavioral economics
  • Looking at behavioral finance in the context of specific strategies
  • Behavioral economics in the context of asset bubbles and the popping of asset bubbles
  • Why economic growth does not increase happiness; mindfulness as an assist in the notion of good decision-making; the notion of animal spirits
  • Behavioral school vs. the classical school in academia

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Ep. 341: Michael Dever Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Dever
Michael Dever

My guest today is Michael Dever, an American businessman, futures trader, entrepreneur, and author. Dever is the founder and CEO of Brandywine Asset Management, Inc., an investment management firm founded in 1982.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Multiple fundamentally based strategies in a systematic diversified portfolio that trades across more than one hundred global markets; strategy diversification
  • The word “predictable” from Dever’s perspective; lack of correlation to other strategies
  • What Dever means by a “not purely quantitative” strategy
  • How and why this particular suite of strategies came to exist
  • The five strategy types
  • Crisis events and black swans
  • The weakness in the multiple strategy return driver set
  • The importance of speculators
  • The fixation on low volatility strategies
  • True portfolio diversification.

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