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Ep. 510: Milton Friedman Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Milton Friedman Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Milton Friedman Returns with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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My guest today is Milton Friedman, one of Michael’s favorite dead guests to bring on the podcast. Milton foreshadows Uber, talks about the deep state (without mentioning the deep state), brings up airline service and monopoly. His solutions to problems in government 35 years ago were to cut government spending, hold monetary growth back and cut regulations. The same solutions to government are at the forefront of American politics today. Today, Michael curates two interviews between Phil Donahue and Milton Friedman. These interviews were recorded back in the 1980’s, but many of the points made are more relevant today than ever.

The topic is airline service and monopoly.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Government spending
  • Liberty in trading
  • Government regulation
  • Unknowingly supporting private interests
  • How to prevent monopoly
  • Legalizing drugs
  • Prohibition

“I don’t believe government is the mother of children, I don’t believe it is the father of children, I believe government is a way in which you and I and our fellow citizens achieve certain things jointly that we can’t achieve separately.” – Milton Friedman

“The private market system is a system of profit and loss. And the loss part is just as essential as the profit part.” – Milton Friedman

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Milton Friedman
Milton Friedman

All Forms of Government Rigged Economic Manipulation Are Gross

Economic Loser
Economic Loser

Feedback in regarding my podcast here:

I think he’s referring to that guy who wrote Chavez was great…

[David Sirota] used to have a column in one of the daily papers here in the NW. He’s been an economic kook (technical term) for decades. Seems to think that the State owes us all something. Probably didn’t pay enough attention in college and flunked Econ 101 and 102.

Look, capitalism isn’t perfect (and you correctly point out that our current “crony capitalism” is a perverse version that will lead to bad outcomes), but all you have to do is compare Singapore and Cuba from the time that both started the current regimes (mid-1950’s) and the outcomes are so startlingly different that there can be no debate about which system is better. End of rant.

[Name]
Seattle, WA

Thanks.


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Ep. 443: Simon Black Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Simon Black
Simon Black

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My guest today is Simon Black, an international investor, entrepreneur, and a free man. His daily e-letter, Notes from the Field, draws on his life, business and travel experiences to help readers gain more freedom, more opportunity, and more prosperity. Hickman is a lifelong entrepreneur and investor that’s traveled to more than 120 countries on all seven continents. In addition, he’s started, invested in, or acquired businesses all over the world. He founded a South America-based agriculture company that has become one of the leading producers in its industry. A few years ago, he acquired a prominent retail brand in Australia, purchasing the business from the former 1980s era rock star who founded it.

The topic is sovereign men.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Health care
  • Banking system
  • Government
  • Travel
  • Breaking the rules

“In the face of such obvious risks, hope drives us to do nothing, and to have confidence in the system that has constantly failed us.” – Simon Black

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Ep. 380: Lessons from Ken Tropin with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Ken Tropin
Ken Tropin

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Please enjoy my monologue Lessons from Ken Tropin with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Recognizing that without a strategy, you’re at the mercy of the machine
  • Embracing uncertainty
  • Understanding that knowing every market move won’t help without a plan
  • The importance of setting your strategy beforehand
  • Seeing that media personalities are paid to pretend to know all
  • How the principles of trend following apply to other disciplines

“Trend following is one of the most mature and well-established systematic trading styles with a thirty-three year track record of profitability.” – Ken Tropin

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Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Ep. 378: Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Embracing Failure with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Understanding that success requires failure
  • Seeing past investment myths
  • Recognizing that no risk means no profits
  • Understanding that there’s no such thing as a perfect strategy
  • Shattering the notion that someone will always take care of you
  • Accepting that there are no guarantees

“I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.” – Michael Jordan

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

The “System” Wants You to Believe in “Security”; Run from Any Man That Promises Such

Consider:

It must be obvious, from the start, that there is a contradiction in wanting to be perfectly secure in a universe whose very nature is momentariness and fluidity. But the contradiction lies a little deeper than the mere conflict between the desire for security and the fact of change. If I want to be secure, that is, protected from the flux of life, I am wanting to be separate from life. Yet it is this very sense of separateness which makes me feel insecure. To be secure means to isolate and fortify the “I,” but it is just the feeling of being an isolated “I” which makes me feel lonely and afraid. In other words, the more security I can get, the more I shall want. To put it still more plainly: the desire for security and the feeling of insecurity are the same thing.

Want security in your investments? That’s what you crave? That’s your number one goal?

Hint: You will never get there.

Accept that the desire for security and the feeling of insecurity are the same thing, and you are on your way to making some money. Start here.

Source: Watts, Alan W. (2011-11-16). The Wisdom of Insecurity (Vintage) (pp. 77-78).


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Inequality, Free Markets and Crashes

Nassim Taleb and Mark Spitznagel talk about how government intervention postpones the inevitable. Excerpts:

Taleb: Mark, your book is the only place that understands crashes as natural equalizers. In the context of today’s raging debates on inequality, do you believe that the natural mechanism of bringing equality — or, at the least, the weakening of the privileged — is via crashes?

Mark: Well straight away let’s ask ourselves: Are we really seeking realized financial equality? How can we ever know what is the natural or acceptable level of inequality, and why is it even the rule of the majority to determine that? That aside, one can absolutely say logically and empirically that asset-market crashes diminish inequality. They are a natural mechanism for this, and a cathartic response to central banks’ manipulation of interest rates and resulting asset-market inflation, as well as other government bailouts, that so amplify inequality in the first place. So crashes are capitalism’s homeostatic mechanism at work to right a distorted system. We are in this ridiculous situation where utopian government policies meant to lessen inequality are a reaction to the consequences of other government policies — a round trip of market distortion. After we’ve been run over by a car, the assumed best treatment is to back the car over us again.

Taleb: I see you are distinguishing between equality of outcome and equality of process. Actually one can argue that the system should ensure downward mobility, something much more important than upward one. The statist French system has no downward mobility for the elite. In natural settings, the rich are more fragile than the middle class and we need the system to maintain it.

More:

Spitznagel: Well straight away let’s ask ourselves: Are we really seeking realized financial equality? How can we ever know what is the natural or acceptable level of inequality, and why is it even the rule of the majority to determine that? That aside, one can absolutely say logically and empirically that asset-market crashes diminish inequality. They are a natural mechanism for this, and a cathartic response to central banks’ manipulation of interest rates and resulting asset-market inflation, as well as other government bailouts, that so amplify inequality in the first place. So crashes are capitalism’s homeostatic mechanism at work to right a distorted system. We are in this ridiculous situation where utopian government policies meant to lessen inequality are a reaction to the consequences of other government policies — a round trip of market distortion. After we’ve been run over by a car, the assumed best treatment is to back the car over us again.

More:

Spitznagel: The main metaphor of my book is the “Yellowstone effect”: A massive fire in Yellowstone Park in 1988 opened the eyes of foresters to the fact that a century of wildfire-suppression, and with it competition- and turnover-suppression, had only delayed, concentrated, and by far worsened the destruction — not prevented it. This isn’t just about dead-wood accumulation creating a fragile tinderbox network. The real issue is how our tinkering artificially short-circuits the fundamental capacity of the system to allocate its limited resources, correct its errors, and find its own balance through the internal communication of information that no forestry manager could ever possibly possess. (The more this is mocked by technocratic naïfs like Geithner, the more valid it is.) But that capacity is still there, and homeostasis ultimately wins through a raging inferno. This is a cautionary tale for our economy. A crash, or the liquidation of assets that have grown unimpeded by economic reality (as if there were more nutrients in the ecosystem than there actually are), looks to academics and bureaucrats — and just about everyone else as well — like the system breaking down. It is actually the system fixing itself.

Food for thought.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Performance
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About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

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