Subscribe now and watch my free trend following VIDEO.

Blog

Spread the Trend Following Word

Trend following in Canada feedback:

Greetings Michael, My name is Abbas xxx and I am a 27 year old trend following advocate from Mississauga a small suburb just 20 miles outside of Toronto in Canada. Since I was 14 years old I knew I wanted to be in control of my own destiny and I developed an obsessive passion to learn as much as I could about the markets and what it would take to become a successful trader. My journey led me to the story of the turtles and the bet between Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt on whether or not trading was a learnable skill or if it was a special talent you had to be born with. I was so fascinated by the story that I wanted to learn as much as I could about the turtles and more importantly trend following. Trend following was a subject that was not covered by many resources and trying to learn more about the subject appeared to be quite the challenge until I found an author by the name of Michael Covel. My quest to master the body of knowledge that is trend following led me to your books and materials. Michael the work you have done to spread the word of trend following has changed many lives including my own. You have shed so much light on trend following that you have become to trend following what the sun is to our solar system. Every time I listen to your podcasts I always get goose bumps when you make your plea to your listeners to spread the word of trend following and help you assemble your team. Listening to you speak I wanted to do my part to spread the message of trend following and I see first hand how your voice has not yet even scratched the surface here in Canada. Then an idea came to me on how I could do my part to spread the message of trend following while being a part of team Covel. Michael I want to be an ambassador for trend following here in Canada; I want to spread the message through your materials…The message of trend following is almost non existent in Canada and I know there are many people whose lives could be changed in the same manner that mine was. Michael I would love to hear your thoughts on my proposition. Any feedback is welcome, I am not afraid to hear no, but I want to hear what you think.

Kind regards,
Abbas xxx

Thank you for your nice feedback. Let me consider options!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ray Dalio’s Words Of Wisdom That Sound Trend Following-Like

Some feedback:

Michael, congratulations on your work to date. I have your books and they are wonderful resources but I must say your work in the podcast is truly undervalued and trades way below fair value (one for the Ben Grahamites). I have noted you discussing the possibilities of Bridgewater/Dalio actually being the biggest trend followers on the planet. Clearly they don’t openly admit to this but there is plenty of anecdotal evidence to strongly suggest it. Anyway I found the following direct quotes from Dalio that firmly made my mind up. I’m sure you and your followers will also decipher them accordingly.

“Bad opinions can be very costly. Most people come up with opinions and there’s no cost to them. Not so in the market. This is why I have learned to be cautious. No matter how hard I work, I really can’t be sure. I wrestled with my realities, reflected on the consequences of my decisions, and learned and improved from this process.”

Keep up the truly outstanding efforts. More than appreciated.

Regards
Steven

Nice find Steven. When people wonder how some hedge funds might really trade they should consider the film Argo. Subterfuge ain’t a new concept. I don’t know Dalio’s exact strategy, but it is my understanding he calls it a mechanical no discretion all fundamental approach. Well…


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Kelly Criterion Shocks Some and Inspires Others

Feedback:

Hey there Mike. I was reading the hedge fund Market Wizards where the Kelly criterion was mentioned. To be honest it shocked me that any professional trader would take it seriously. It seems like it directs the trader to risk far more money than any professional trader would ever dare to risk. It tells the trader to risk as much as 20 to 30% of his trading account Mike! This sounds like trader suicide to me. Even after applying the “conservative” method of cutting it in half as one trader in the book suggested you would still be risking 10 to 15% of your trading account on each trade which again is far more than any professional I have heard of risks on his trades. As best I can tell, the Kelly criterion is a totally useless formula for serious traders and I can’t figure out how it even made it into the book. The only professional I have ever heard of who suggests such large bets is Larry Williams in his book in which he advises risking over 10% for some traders which shocked me when I read that book. I was just wondering what are your thoughts on the Kelly criterion?

Dave Druz and Ed Seykota wrote a good piece called “Determining Optimal Risk”. Worth a read if you haven’t checked it out already. Kelly also discussed heavily here.

More information on dave richard trade chart system.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Interview with Dan Ariely: The Upside Of Irrationality

Feedback in:

Michael, I heard on the podcast you are visiting my adopted city of Beijing where I have lived for the past 8 years. If you need anything while there, places to go eat, see, my friend has great Israeli restaurant there etc. Whatever you need let me know. My local China mobile number is below. We are out of town so can not meet but can help. Glad you enjoy Asia. I moved there from Wall Street about 8 years ago. Life never been the same ever since. Also, you will love this interview. Full link below. Best of luck with CLSA.

Miguel: Continuing from this definition of decision making you write about the Lancelot story where he’s a fighter and claims that the key to fighting well is not worrying about the outcome but rather focusing on having perfect concentration (minimal stress). How can you relate this story to decision making?

Dan: What is interesting about this story is that by not valuing his life Lancelot became much more rational in a standard way. Basically, the way we think about it is that emotion makes people irrational. Not bad necessarily, but irrational, and if you can disassociate yourself from your emotions you can make more rational decisions. That is exactly what Lancelot was able to do-So during a sword-fight where you want to fight to the best of your ability you don’t want any stress, and to do so you don’t want to think about anything besides the immediate fight. By detaching yourself from emotions you are able to do that.

Thanks for the nice words and words of wisdom!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 118: Trend Following in China with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Trend Following in China with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Trend Following in China with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Trends of China with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Listen to my interview with Jed Rothstein creator of the China Hustle Film here.

The Fundamentalist Trucker

Feedback in:

Hey there Mike. Today’s market moves (The collapse of Gold in particular) reminded me of a disagreement I recently had with a truck driver I happened to cross paths with. We ended up discussing the markets and he mentioned that he happened to recently come into a ton of money. He starts telling me all the reasons why the metals is the place to go. I never revealed to him that I have experience as a trader and I happen to watch many many markets on a daily basis. I knew that what he was saying was nonsense because I knew by heart the approximate price of Gold and that it was in a steady downtrend. When I explained this to him, he rudely corrected me and told me that actually Silver is the place to put your money. I then informed him that Silver and Gold are highly correlated markets and that the two move almost in tandem. When Gold goes down, Silver usually goes with it. He then rudely corrected me again, adding in that “he has actually had schooling on these matters” thinking that that would shut me up because he “knows what he’s talking about”. I then told him that if he has had financially schooling then he should well know that the two markets are highly correlated and that any school that teaches fundamental investing will teach you that the long term [buy and hold] track record for the metals is horrific. I then told him that if I were to pull up a chart of Silver and another of Gold and put them side by side covering the names and prices, I bet he couldn’t even tell me which was which because they look nearly identical. Anyway Mike I just wanted to share that story with you to illustrate the difference between the fundamentalist mentality and mentality of traders and even aspiring traders. The fundamentalist trucker is still thinking about the meteoric rise in the metals in the past and is now riding it into the dirt. Traders on the other hand already made our money on the rise, and now we are all short and trying to determine whether we should cover on today’s break or move our stop down and lock in some profits or add to our current positions. When will the fundamentalists learn Mike?

Thanks! They won’t learn. Guaranteed.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Journey of Turtle Trader Liz Cheval Took to Make Her Fortune

From Attain Capital Management:

In many ways, it can all come down to one decision- one choice in one moment that crystallizes a path in front of you. That path is rarely straight and often difficult to navigate, but once that moment has come and gone, the rest- as they say- is history. For Liz Cheval, chairwoman of the close to $150 million managed futures program EMC, that decision was the choice to respond to Richard Dennis’ famed turtle trader ad.

The story of the turtle traders [see my book The Complete TurtleTrader for more] is pretty fantastic in and of itself. Two renowned traders disagree. One says that what they do is unique, while another says that he could train anyone to trade. They make a wager on the issue, an ad is placed in the paper, and the lives of 20 students would never be the same. As the only female selected for the program, Cheval’s life was turned upside down.

After receiving a degree in mathematics from Lawrence University in Appleton, Wisconsin, Ms. Cheval was working as a trade clerk at the Chicago Board of Trade when Mr. Dennis placed his ad in the paper. At the time, women were few and far between in the famed Chicago trading pits. To hear her explain it, it was largely a function of physique.

“When I started on the floor of the CBOT in the early 1980’s… It was difficult for women to compete, given the physical demands of pit trading and the advantages of a larger, heavier frame,” she recalls.

It was on the floor that Cheval found herself drawn to Dennis’ offer. The excitement in the pits over the opportunity was palpable, as resumes were quickly refreshed and rushed to the mail. Cheval found herself being pushed to apply as well, even by those competing against her for a slot (including her employer). When called into an interview, she began to think that maybe she was missing something.

“As I approached the interview, I thought the opportunity with C&D was literally too good to be true,” she explains. “I simply couldn’t believe that a world renowned trader would teach us his methods and give us his private capital to trade. I assumed that there would be a catch, another story revealed at the interview.”

It turned out that the interview was simply the opportunity of the lifetime.

“It was not until the end of the interview, as Mr. Dennis’ top executive explained the nature and the details of the program that I began to believe it was the real deal,” Cheval recounts. “At that point, I became overwhelmed. My throat went dry. My legs were shaking. I could barely walk out of the room. If I understood the true nature of the program at the beginning, I would not have been as collected during the interview and would not have been selected. ”

Being selected may have been the easy part. After the interview began a rigorous amount of training, and the competition was fierce.

“The group was extremely competitive. The dynamic was open, above-board and collegial, but no doubt, everybody wanted to win,” Cheval states.

Even as the only woman in the group, Cheval found herself seamlessly blending into the adrenaline fueled atmosphere. The experience, by and large, was a positive one. She was able to earn the respect of her peers, and believes that working in a group of professional, competitive men helped prime her for professional challenges in the future.

When the training was done, it was time to hit the pavement running. The turtles were hungry to spread their wings and test their mettle. Cheval remembers making phone calls upon completion of the program, trying to gauge the level of interest for outside investors. That former employer who had encouraged her to apply? He became EMC’s first client, investing $1 million.

While it certainly has not been a bed of roses, Cheval has done very well for herself. EMC , which she runs with former turtle Brian Proctor, now has $148.75 million in assets under management, and is as well respected in the industry as you can get, in our opinion. She credits the nuanced strategies involved in managed futures with keeping her in the game. Even with this success, Cheval knows that you need to keep pushing to make it in this industry.

“The ability to adapt to change is the key to long term success in trading. It’s relatively easy to develop a profitable trading strategy over a short time frame. It’s far more challenging to develop a reliable method to continually adapt the strategy to future market conditions,” Cheval states.

Adaptation is especially important in an environment like what is seen today. Managed futures seems to be perpetually under attack by mainstream media pundits and financial advisors, with the bulk of comment being directed toward “greedy speculators.” This misconception, paired with investor frustration over a divergent return stream and increasing government intervention in the markets, can complicate the managed futures conversation, but Cheval is up to the task. In her mind, the theory of the game makes the challenge all the more worthwhile.

Her experience in the industry has granted her a great deal of perspective, and she’s more than willing to share it. The secret to becoming a successful CTA? She’s not keeping mum.

“You need both a successful trading strategy and, more importantly, a reliable method to adapt the strategy to future market conditions. A successful trading strategy requires robust systems and sound risk management principles. The trading strategy is only as good as your research process. You have to identify robust estimators and develop a process to continually adapt the systems based on these reliable estimators,” Cheval says. “You have to be disciplined in executing both trading and research strategies, in good periods and bad. A CTA has to be committed to their strategy whether it is in or out of favor.”

And for all you women out there thinking about entering the field?

“Over the years I encouraged women to manage money because I believed it to be a gender neutral occupation. No one can dispute your contribution based on gender in investment management. Your performance is there in black and white in the P&L report,” states Cheval.

“Go for it. Today the physical advantage of men [in the trading pits] is inconsequential because trading is virtually 100% electronic. I give the same advice to both men and women seeking entry level jobs in managed futures. Technical skills are mandatory. Great thinkers and idea creators need technical applications to test and execute trading strategies. Having those skills is a great way to gain entry or to build your own business.”

However, in our conversations with Cheval, it was her comments on the future of the industry that resonated with us most.

“Money centers will shift, performance will change, but overall, global markets are large and expansive,” she quipped. “Markets and managers will adapt.”

We couldn’t agree more.

Unfortunately, Liz Cheval recently passed away, but her success lives on.

Related Podcasts and Articles:

Trend Following Forward by Charles Faulkner

Lobster Logic

Interview with Brennan Dunn

Learning Trading Mechanics

Trend Follower Cliff Asness


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.