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Trend Following Feedback from Brazil

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Hi Michael,

I just read your book The Complete TurtleTrader and already bought the others. Starting Trend Following now. Do you have any idea when are you coming to presentations here in Brazil? I’ve been three times in USA (Miami, Orlando and California recently) for vacations and would like to attend one presentation of yours the next time. Is there a schedule somewhere?

I thank you so much for changing my way of thinking about the markets. I listened each of your episodes at least twice, some of them three or four times and I’m learning a lot with you and your guests. I even started to read a lot more because your guests are always indicating books. I read books from Schwager, Tharp, Altucher, Radge, Basso and the list goes on…

Thank you for everything and keep your awesome work going on.

All the best for you!

Thanks! Schedule? Here.

Ep. 118: Trend Following in China with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Trend Following in China with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Trend Following in China with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

In his first podcast back from China Michael Covel talks about trend following in the context of The Middle Kingdom. Through five flights, four cities, untold hotel rooms, two speeches before crowds of 500 people, and over a dozen presentations in front of some of China’s largest hedge funds, Covel brings the wisdom gained through his excursion back to his podcast audience. First, he responds to a reader from China who heard about one of Covel’s presentations, and the criticism that Covel didn’t give the “secret sauce” to win at trend following. Richard Dennis was famous for saying that he could publish his rules in the newspaper and nobody would follow them, and Covel could explain exactly how to be a trend follower and it’d go over many heads. So it’s not surprising that in a crowd of 500 some would have their expectations of learning about some kind of “secret sauce” not met. Covel isn’t trying to impress that person, and they aren’t the type of person that would ever get it anyway. They’re looking for the shortcut– the angle, the quick fix. If you have Covel speak to your group, after fifteen years of his life spent researching the topic and putting together the best educational materials for new and experienced traders alike, if your first thought is “you didn’t give me the secret sauce”, it might not be for you. But Covel did reach a great many people, and he got a great deal of excellent feedback. He discusses the typical Chinese investor mindset and what got them to take a second look at trend following. Covel also waxes on the idea of trust in China, the parallels to America, and how the acceptance of “the new” in China might go down easier than elsewhere. Next, Covel adds some lessons to the overall trend following education. Covel’s journey shows that an outsider can get to be an insider. Unfortunately, one of the common questions posed to Covel by the media in China was to ask if any average person could succeed in trend following. Covel discusses how this is a defeatist question. If you consider yourself average: quit now. Suitability, however, is something different. Is trend following, or investing in general, suitable for everyone? If you don’t have the education, it might not be. Covel also gives some examples from his journey that help to put trend following in context. Covel notes a bit of censorship in his presentations via the Chinese regulatory committees. One slide was not allowed in his presentation. What was that slide? Covel explains. Also, Covel recently discussed Ray Dalio at Bridgewater, the biggest hedge fund on the planet. Covel reads a letter from a listener that gives anecdotal evidence about how Dalio could be a closet trend follower.

Listen to this episode:

Listen to my interview with Jed Rothstein creator of the China Hustle Film here.

Ep. 78: Trend Following Style, Prechter, Godin and Gawande with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Trend Following Style, Prechter, Godin and Gawande with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Trend Following Style, Prechter, Godin and Gawande with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Michael Covel talks about his upcoming trip to Asia. His plans include a speech in Tokyo, time spent in Singapore, Bali, Panang, KL Thailand, with various speaking events throughout. Covel’s Asian odyssey is sure to be documented in the podcast. Covel also thanks the listeners for the success of the podcast. People feel stuck, and Covel talks about Stephen Cope’s “The Great Work of Your Life: The Guide to the Journey of Your True Calling“. Most Americans don’t want to be on the endless treadmill, and maybe trend following is a way to get the freedom that you need in order to find your calling. Next, Covel discusses a quote from Bob Prechter, of Elliott Wave fame. Covel doesn’t think that predictive techniques work, but Prechter had a fantastic piece of writing that Covel shares that analyzes some of the Fed actions in the past compared to what they’re doing now. Covel contemplates what this might mean, and how it shows the Fed might be in a panic. But what does this mean to a trend following trader? Very simply, it’s just another reason to employ a trend following strategy. If the Fed has dampened speculation in the past by raising interest rates to pop a bubble, and today you’ve got markets right back at the all-time highs but rates are still at 0%–what might this mean? If this scenario is accurate, what strategy do you employ? You can either trust the system, or you can put in place a strategy that only places trust in price action. Look at what Prechter says to inspire you to become a trend following trader. So how do you adjust? Covel goes on to discuss how to get “unstuck” quoting author Seth Godin: “Starting without seeing the end is difficult, so we often wait until we see the end.” Next, a quote from Atul Gawande that talks about knowing your fallibility, and the importance of practice and nurture (in trend following). Covel also discusses an upcoming massive searchable .PDF file that he’s putting together featuring 15 years of research containing background documents, systems, and other research materials.

Listen to this episode:

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