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Is Your Only Strategy “Trust”?

Peter Schiff states:

“The Fed’s failure yesterday to announce some sort of tapering of its QE program, despite the consensus of an overwhelming percentage of economists who expected action, once again reveals the degree to which mainstream analysts have overestimated the strength of our current economy. The Fed understands, as the market seems not to, that the current “recovery” could not survive without continuation of massive monetary stimulus. Mainstream economists have mistaken the symptoms of the Fed’s monetary expansion, most notably rising stock and real estate prices, as signs of real and sustainable growth. But the current asset price bubbles have nothing to do with the real economy. To the contrary, they are setting up for a painful correction that will likely be worse than the one we experienced five years ago. Following this playbook, the Fed will likely maintain the pretense that tapering is a near term possibility and that it has a credible plan on the shelf to bring an end to QE. In reality the Fed is stalling for time and hoping that the economy will inexplicably roar back to life. Unfortunately, hope is not a strategy.”

Stanley Druckenmiller (from Zero Hedge) states:

“A stock market at an all-time high would suggest we don’t have a problem with financial conditions.” In fact, Druckenmiller continues, the Fed “blew it… they had a freebie,” they could have started the process to “get us off the dope.” This action, or inaction, he warns “is going to make it so much harder for the next Chairman to start the process.” In fact, he concludes, that from beginning to end – once markets adjust from these subsidized prices – that the wealth effect of QE will have been negative not positive…this has forced us to buy securities at subsidized prices and when they adjust, at whatever point in the future, they will adjust immediately and on no volume.”

I don’t know the timing of when their wisdom will unfold, they don’t either.

But it will.

And what will you do?

Do you have a plan beyond trusting daddy government to tuck you in at night?


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Don’t Run Against the Wind… Go With the Flow

Feedback:

Hi Michael, A quick note to thank you for the wonderful podcasts (and your books). I’ve been listening to them whenever I go for my runs a few times a week. And in the midst of all the market nonsense, these podcasts (TF-related or not) have kept me sane as I trade trends. TF is like running with the wind which may not come all the time. But when they do come (slow or fast & furious), I make sure I run with it, not against it. It’s easier that way. I sometimes wonder why people run against the wind. Press on with your work!

Warmest regards,
Francis

Thanks Francis!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Prediction is for ‘Suckas’

From The Huffington Post:

“According to a survey by Paola Sapienza and Luigi Zingales, effectively all economists agreed that stock prices are hard to predict. Only 59% of average Americans felt the same way.”

No surprise.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Nassim Taleb Quote: What Does a Turkey Have in Common With the Stock Market?

Turkey quote Nassim Taleb, black swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb Quotes, be aware of the unexpected, the importance of Black Swan theory thinking.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 157: Mike Bellafiore Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mike Bellafiore
Mike Bellafiore

My guest today is Mike Bellafiore, the co-founder of SMB Capital, a proprietary trading firm in New York City, and SMBU, its trader education company. Bellafiore also writes regularly for the globally popular SMBU blog, where he shares ideas on how to improve trading performance.

The topic is his book The Playbook: An Inside Look at How to Think Like a Professional Trader.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Real rewards to being a successful trader
  • Passion in trading
  • Why professional traders fail
  • Parallels between trading and writing
  • Bellafiore’s history and definitions of “prop trading”
  • Trading short timeframes and intraday trading
  • The “prop desk”
  • Ups and downs in Bellafiore’s career
  • The early history of SMB Capital
  • Bellafiore’s early struggles with his father’s health concerns, his mother’s death, an SEC investigation, and how “The PlayBook” came out of it
  • The ten attributes of a great trader
  • Trading psychology and mindset
  • Personality types and short-term trading
  • Microscalping and swing trading
  • Expertise, flow, and mastery
  • Process vs. outcome
  • Entrepreneurship
  • The importance of coaching
  • The four ways to become great at anything

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You Have to Be Asleep to Believe It

Great video clip from George Carlin. He reiterates everything I talk about on my blog, in my books and on my podcast, “It’s called the American Dream because you have to be asleep to believe it.”:

My film on the same subject.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 156: Patrick Boyle Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Patrick Boyle
Patrick Boyle

My guest today is Patrick Boyle, a fund manager, academic, and author. Boyle is the Founder of Palomar Capital Management, a UK-based hedge fund.

The topic is fund management.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Directional trading
  • Timeframes in trading and short-term trading
  • Boyle’s background and how he came to be a founding partner of Palomar
  • Boyle’s time working with Victor Niederhoffer
  • Niederhoffer and his teaching lineage
  • David Harding and Bill Dunn
  • Boyle’s political stances, the Fed, and the SEC
  • Risk and running a directional fund
  • Performance correlation to the S&P and the trend following CTA’s
  • The big picture takeaways that Boyle learned under Niederhoffer
  • Correlations to people who have come out of Niederhoffer’s shop
  • Monroe Trout
  • Testing ideas
  • How quantitative analysis is different from technical analysis
  • The book publishing industry, and why all the secrets might not be in a $20 book
  • Where Palomar Fund Management is at today
  • Foundational advice to the budding fund manager
  • Libertarianism

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