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“Episode 350: Great interviews”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Michael: Episode 350: Great interviews. One thing mentioned in that was Dave Druz told Melissinos that the most important item was portfolio construction, i.e. selecting instruments that have tendency to trend, and trend often enough to produce meaningful juice. I agree with that. Any material you have from other people that to deeper into portfolio selection within trend following context, please send it my way. Also, I just heard that in 351 that you are heading to China. See if you could include voice clips from your talk over there and make it an episode.

Keep up the good work.

Thanks,
[Name]

Thanks. More insights on portfolios here, here and here.

Ep. 351: Logical Fallacies and Zero Sum with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel

Michael Covel offers a reminder of how to think and act when responding to certain types of questioning and the translation to markets. Covel can think of no more perfect example than the “greed” exchange between Milton Friedman and Phil Donahue. Covel discusses Milton Friedman more and brings and expands the discussion into the general take-down of bullshit. Covel also discusses the importance of 'losers' (see: zero sum) in the market and why people acting irrationally offers perpetual opportunities for trend following traders. Next, a personal anecdote regarding a pre-interview for a podcast, Maria Bartiromo, and the fundamental question: “Why will trend following continue to excel?” Finally, Covel moves onto a healthy bit of advice in risk management for your trading.

Please enjoy my monologue Logical Fallacies and Zero Sum with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Approach the Market in a New Way

Posted on by Michael Covel

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I want to thank you for writing your books. They got me to approach the market in a new way. I have dived head long into algo/quant trading through trend trading. As long as you trust the system and follow through you will succeed. I think that the simpler systems are better than complex. Also the markets are noisier than they were 20 years ago which make trend trading harder, but it is still the most successful method for trading. Thanks again Michael.

[Name]

Thanks.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 350: Michael Melissinos & Glenn Graham Interviews with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Michael Melissinos & Glenn Graham
Michael Melissinos & Glenn Graham

My guests today are Michael Melissinos and Glenn Graham.

Michael has assumed research and trading responsibilities. He also works on his emotional and mental game with the help of his local Trading Tribe. Tribe helps him maintain discipline through tough performance periods, remain inventive and push the envelope of improving the firm’s investing and education strategy. He previously held positions at Rothstein Kass, Bear Stearns and J.P. Morgan.

Glenn’s firm is Golden Point Capital. Graham has had extensive experience in quantitative trading strategy development in the futures space. He holds the designation of Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst (CAIA), a designation focusing on the alternative asset classes.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Covel and Melissinos discuss Melissinos’ career and beginnings; his history with Bear Sterns; Melissinos’ introduction to trend following; “find trends, align with trends, and manage risks”; the similarities between crude oil, copper, sugar, the Euro, and wheat; and trading based purely on price.
  • Graham and Covel discuss Graham’s early trading track record; niche markets and hedging; Graham’s early trading experiences and his history at a high frequency trading firm; early influences in trend style trading; the parallels between trading and backgammon; the importance of the size of your winners over winning percentage; and style drift.

Listen to this episode:

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Ep. 349: Donald MacKenzie Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Donald MacKenzie
Donald MacKenzie

My guest today is Donald MacKenzie, a Professor of Sociology at the University of Edinburgh, Scotland. He works on the sociology of markets, focusing on automated trading, the use of mathematical models, and the evaluation and trading of bonds. MacKenzie has worked in the past on topics ranging from the sociology of nuclear weapons to the meaning of proof in the context of computer systems critical to safety or security.

The topic is his book An Engine, Not A Camera: How Financial Models Shape Markets.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Economic models
  • Self-fulfilling prophecies and economics
  • Our beliefs and the social world
  • The definition of performativity
  • Mackenzie’s analysis and study of the Black-Scholes model
  • Long Term Capital Management
  • Reflexivity
  • The intellectual gap between purveyors of the efficient market hypothesis vs. behavioral economists as reflected in the 2014 Nobel Prize winners
  • The arms race in high frequency trading.

Listen to this episode:

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The Truth: A Two-Edged Sword

Posted on by Michael Covel

The truth is, almost everything about superior investing is a two-edged sword:

-If you invest, you will lose money if the market declines.
-If you don’t invest, you will miss out on gains if the market rises.

-Market timing will add value if it can be done right.
-Buy-and-hold will produce better results if timing can’t be done right.

-Aggressiveness will help when the market rises but hurt when it falls.
-Defensiveness will help when the market falls but hurt when it rises.

-If you concentrate your portfolio, your mistakes will kill you.
-If you diversify, the payoff from your successes will be diminished.

-If you employ leverage, your successes will be magnified.
-If you employ leverage, your mistakes will be magnified.

HT Howard Marks.

More on stretching the truth.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Any Trend Followers in San Francisco?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I am a big follower of yours and love the trend following philosophy. You always list a lot of the trend following hedge funds, and I was wondering if you knew of any in San Francisco?

Thanks,
[Name]

I don’t keep track like that in any comprehensive way to advise you. Wish better news.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.