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Tag: Trend Following

“Covel Showed Me The Door, I Just Walked Through It”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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I have just started my trend following journey. I had discovered this method in trying and failing for years at forex although I haven’t lost more than a few hundred thus far. Naturally once I heard the term trend following I immediately had an Aha moment. I am a regular or less than regular 30 year old uneducated guy. I have spent most of my life though learning about everything. I have taught myself a lot over the years so I’ve always known I could beat the market. Being a poor person has left me with little or no capital to make any realistic gains and when I have hear comes all the shit over data and news, and wiped me out. And every time I get mad at my self for not performing to my own standards which I see as my potential. I am writing you this letter because I have found myself in desperate times for a number of personal reasons, but in discovery of trend following I have found my way even if it takes me years. I have listened to almost everyone of your podcasts! and consumed as much information I can from anywhere I can. I would like to thank you for giving all us poor people a free opportunity to learn not for the magic bullet buy here sell there but for the general idea and the wisdom of saying see what you can do. I am currently trading forex with this method do to my limited capital and my ability to leverage. Whether I am successful or not time will tell but I’d like to thank you for everything you do basically for free and if I do make it I’ll have to say, “Michael Covel showed me the door, I just walked through it.”

Thanks,
Adam

Adam, thanks, but no more calling yourself poor. Poor is temporary, in mind and wallet.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 211: John Bollinger Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
John Bollinger
John Bollinger

My guest today is John Bollinger, an American author, financial analyst, contributor to the field of technical analysis and the developer of Bollinger Bands. Since 1987, he has published the Capital Growth Letter, a newsletter which provides technical analysis of the financial markets.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Bollinger Bands as described for the lay person
  • Defining when a price is relatively high or relatively low
  • Defining “relatively high” and “relatively low”
  • Measuring volatility to determine the “width” of a Bollinger Band
  • Standard deviation
  • The beginnings of Bollinger Bands, and how John Bollinger came to put it together
  • Different ideas about volatility in the 1980s
  • Some of Bollinger’s early curiosity triggers, and why he started digging into finance after going to art school
  • Light, film, and Bollinger’s experience at the School of Visual Arts
  • Bollinger’s experience in his apprenticeship to learn technical analysis
  • “The best authority is the price itself”, and why this statement isn’t very well accepted in the mainstream
  • Differences between fundamental and technical analysts
  • Bollinger’s look at media and the presentation of his message over the years
  • Why Bollinger would be known as a quantitative analyst instead of a technician if he started his career now
  • Position sizing
  • Why volatility is the least understood aspect of the market

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Bhagavad Gita and Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Hi Michael, I have been following you now for the last -2- years and always look forward to the various podcasts. Absolute gems they are. I have read all your books and they are all master pieces for trend followers like me. The more I read them, hear to your interviews so many great traders and their psychology including the moment of now. I would request you to read the “The Bhagavad Gita” as it is, by ISKCON. The book should be available in the US as there are many ISKCON temples.

Regards,
Sriram [Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 210: Seykota, Harding and the Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Seykota, Harding and the Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Seykota, Harding and the Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue Seykota, Harding & the 2014 Trend Following Conference with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

How to Close (And I’m Not Talking About With Girls)

Posted on by Michael Covel

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For a long time I am debating with myself how to approach the “Close” problem. I can summarize it very simply: When using any of the Open-High-Low-Close prices, in our testing, and algorithms, we are using a thing that do not exist in real life. In real life, these numbers are known of course, only in the next bar or only in the last tick of the current bar. So, if the logic depends on doing something, intra-bar, by the status of these numbers, it is only in the last tick, (and therefore with the possibilities of suffering a very extended bar) or to enter and exit intra-bar, in case these numbers changes as to change the decision to enter or exit. The two alternatives will create a very harmful effect on the system performance. I am aware of the possibility to create a buffer around the line of decision, and so, not to enter-exit back and forth, too much, but then the question will be how wide this buffer should be, relative to the time-frame (and volatility). Any ideas or suggestion? From listening avidly to your audios, I think that you deal with a more “long-term” approach (weekly bars) but I think that this “problem” is relevant in all time frames and even in all price representations. Many thanks in advance.

Nothing I prescribe is intra or day trading. Simplest way I can offer feedback. This is not a trend following concern.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 209: Dave Rapach Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Dave Rapach
Dave Rapach

My guest today is Dave Rapach, an internationally renowned researcher in the area of asset return forecasting. His research is highly cited and published in leading scholarly and practitioner journals in Finance and Economics. Rapach is a Professor of Economics and holds the John Simon Endowed Chair in Economics at the Saint Louis University Chaifetz School of Business.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why trend following works from an academic standpoint
  • “Publish or perish” and the difficulty of publishing scholarly articles on trend following
  • Early research on trend following, the random walk theory, and Burton Malkiel’s “A Random Walk Down Wall Street”
  • Warren Buffett, Bill Dunn, and survivorship bias
  • A paper that Rapach traces to the reintroduction of trend following and technical analysis to the academic community
  • Measuring systematic risk
  • Eugene Fama’s recent nobel prize
  • How the trend following world has been neglected by the academic community
  • How Rapach found his way into the academic finance world
  • Covel’s experience digging in to trend following research in the early to mid 1990’s
  • Some of Rapach’s recent papers
  • Why recessions are good for trend following

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Interviewee Ideas are Always Welcomed

Posted on by Michael Covel

We are still working on dates for a Singapore trend following conference. Also, if you have any suggestions for podcast guests, send them our way:

Mike, I would definitely be interested in learning more about Trend Following Conference in Asia dates, time and agenda. Also, I think a great guest would be Tom Dorsey from Dorsey Wright & Associates. He started his career as a stock broker with Merrill back in the early 70’s, ran an options dept then started his own company back in 1987. Tom has traveled the world and has met lots of great people and has incredible stories. His company provides guidance for advisers, institutions, hedge funds around the world. Based on Point & Figure applications and Relative Strength (all related to Trend Following).

Keep up the great work! Thanks for all of the inspiration!!

Matt N.

Thanks. I will email Tom and Singapore news to follow.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.