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Tag: Trend Following

“I signed up to your website… and would ideally like to sharpen my focus.”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael.

Thank you for your website.

I think I must have purchased 3 copies of your book Trend Following, over the years, but whenever we moved house they somehow got misplaced.

I run a small Hedge fund, and have been trading Fx options since 1997. Been reading up on Ed Seykota & the Turtles for as long as I can remember, but always used Market profile for my intra-day hedging of my options portfolios, when working at my previous employers (i.e. investment banks).

I run a Fx Volatility fund, but I am never delta neutral, as I look to benefit from trends and try to position accordingly.

Example – I am currently long USDJPY, and have written USD PUTS, to pick up the volatility premium and also run the delta as well as buying USD ag JPY to create a clearly long USD view.

Reasons for writing the PUTS, is that it allows me to pick up theta, even when the market move sideways.

I signed up to your website, as I feel that working in a bank has taken away my focus on trend following, and would ideally like to sharpen my focus and also learn about more/”NEW” ideas to identify trends etc.

Your thoughts and insights will be greatly appreciated.

NB: I use 20 day Donchians breakout with + Joe Di Napolis 25×5 SMA as a Filter, as well as the parabolic PSAR to exit trades .

Kind regards,

[Name]

Jump in here.

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“This whole trend following thing sounds pretty cool…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

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Michael,

I have been listening to your podcast for a couple of weeks now and I have to say that its top notch. Great job and keep the awesome content coming.

I am currently getting my MBA with a focus on finance and data analytics. My finance professors teach the classic efficient markets hypothesis, which just doesn’t seem to be accurate in my opinion. Your work, along with the guests that you have had on your show confirm my thinking.

This weekend I will be driving cross country and your audiobook will be making the trip with me, and can’t wait to dive in and see what is in the 30+ hours of material.

Just wanted to reach out and give you some positive feedback, keep it up.

Thanks,
[Name]

Thanks!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“It’s all still so surreal and very cool…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hey Mike,

I just want to say thanks for all of the work you’ve put in over the years. You’ve helped me a great deal not just in learning about trend following, but also meeting people within the space.

I remember reading Trend Following back in 2007 after I graduated college; learning about John Henry, Seykota, Jerry Parker, etc. Little did I know that I’d become friendly with some of these guys. It’s all still so surreal and very cool.

About a month ago, after [meeting] a very well known trend following trader, he decides to invest $[xxx] in my fund. For a guy like me managing $[small] millions, that’s a big f’n deal!

I don’t think this could’ve been possible without the work you’ve done, so I just want to thank you for doing it.

Let me know when you come back to the states. Let’s run some sprints and have a catch.

[Name]

Great story! Congrats!

No Quit
No Quit

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

No Fundamentals. Repeat, No Fundamentals

Posted on by Michael Covel

Always in the past, and always in the future, the gatekeepers of information will want investors to consider the yin and yang:

Funnymentals
Funnymentals

An understanding of that, a consideration of that, anything related to that–has zero to do with having the right entry, exit and position sizing rules.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

The Babe Ruth Effect in Venture Capital and Trend Following

Posted on by Michael Covel

Consider from The Babe Ruth Effect: Frequency vs Magnitude (PDF):

“Building a portfolio that can deliver superior performance requires that you evaluate each investment using expected value analysis. What is striking is that the leading thinkers across varied fields — including horse betting, casino gambling, and investing — all emphasize the same point. We call it the Babe Ruth effect: even though Ruth struck out a lot, he was one of baseball’s greatest hitters.”

Chris Dixon adds:

…about ~6% of investments representing 4.5% of dollars invested generated ~60% of the total returns. Let’s dig into the data a little more to see what separates good VC funds from bad VC funds.

Further from Dixon:

The home runs for good funds are around 20x, but the home runs for great funds are almost 70x. As Bill Gurley says: “Venture capital is not even a home run business. It’s a grand slam business.”

Speculation is not about a consistent 1% a month. That’s fantasy.

More TF resources.

The Babe Ruth Effect
The Babe Ruth Effect

Check out the resources page for Trend trading for dummies pdf.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“I’m curious for some behind-the-scenes details…”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I enjoy your podcasts, I’ve been a regular listener for the past 2-3 years. You put a lot of care into each episode, and it shows. I’m curious for some behind-the-scenes details in your preparation. Do you write a podcast script? If so, how detailed is it (paragraphs, bullets, etc)? It doesn’t sound like you’re reading from a card or just winging it. How do you strike that balance?

Regards,
[Name]

I have 1 page of notes for an interview. But these days I feel like I use less and less. Monologues? In past I might have had a page of notes, but these days I ponder the issue, turn recorder on and go. It’s technically winging it, but when you do it for so long it’s not really winging it.

Interesting question!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Do you have any general advice?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hi Michael, I’m wondering if you have any general advice for someone striving to build some secondary income sources.

The reason I’m asking you is because you’ve built up your own website, written your own books and built up your own website.

My vision is to become a trend following trader, having a website and write some books. The trend following part is actually the easy bit since it only takes capital and a back-tested strategy. The hard part is the income source that could finance continuous saving.

So on the subject of building up some kind of platform, which you obviously are a master at, do you have any general advice? It can be hard to know where to start before putting in all the hours.

Best regards,
[Name]

Become an entrepreneur. Read Linchpin by Seth Godin.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.