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Michael,

I have been listening to your podcast for a couple of weeks now and I have to say that its top notch. Great job and keep the awesome content coming.

I am currently getting my MBA with a focus on finance and data analytics. My finance professors teach the classic efficient markets hypothesis, which just doesn’t seem to be accurate in my opinion. Your work, along with the guests that you have had on your show confirm my thinking.

This weekend I will be driving cross country and your audiobook will be making the trip with me, and can’t wait to dive in and see what is in the 30+ hours of material.

Just wanted to reach out and give you some positive feedback, keep it up.

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Thanks!

David Harding on EMT: Trend Following 5th edition

From my newest:

David Harding goes further, explaining EMT madness in an every-man way: “This theory of rational markets treats economics like a physical science—like Newtonian physics—when in fact it is a human or social science. Human beings are prone to unpredictable behavior, to over-reaction or slumbering inaction, to mania and panic. The markets that reflect this behavior do not assume some supra-human wisdom, they can and sometimes do reflect that volatility.”

Further translation: Human nature isn’t rational. It blows bubbles and then pops bubbles.

Ep. 566: Induced with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Induced with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Induced with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Fear drives all in today’s world. Two operations who have not let fear dictate their trading are Berkshire Hathaway and Dunn Capital. Both have 40+ year track records that should be studied. What was their system? How has it worked? If you look at the month by month and year by year of these two much can be learned. Both track records have not just gone up, up, up–they have had massive drawdowns (at least by the definitions of mortals) and still they have been able to persevere. No matter who you are, the ability to adapt to the markets is mission critical.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Drawdowns
  • Dunn Capital performance
  • Warren Buffett performance
  • Risk management
  • Ego in trading
  • Cognitive dissidence
  • Efficient market hypothesis
  • Black Swans
  • Transparency
  • Critics; Trolls!

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Ep. 555: Denise Shull Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Denise Shull
Denise Shull

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Denise Shull is a performance and decision coach to traders and athletes. She is well known for her effectiveness in assessing performance under high pressure situations. Denise began her Wall Street career in 1994 as trader and desk manager on the Chicago Board Options Exchange. She was always fascinated by the psychology side of trading from the outset of her trading career. In 2015 she offered critical insight on how to put together one of the main characters of the hit show “Billions” on Showtime.

Denise has counseled an extremely wide variety of traders with all kinds of personalities and trading styles. However, at the end of the day everyone is human and all traders have common psychological threads which she points out. When Denise analyzes a client she tries to understand a sequence of feelings that person is making and what the patterns of their feelings are. At first it is just about her figuring out how a clients brain works, and then she helps them see the patterns.

What was the trigger for Denise to go down the path of studying the mind and human behavior? Starting from a young age she enjoyed observing and counseling friends. In her mid to late 20’s she started looking at her friends relationships and seeing that the people were all different but the scenarios were the same. A teacher helped point out a theory of Freud’s. Freud believed there is a critical period for attachment and self image when you are a child. Denise gives examples of how human reactions stem from a template made in the first 2-3 years of life.

Michael and Denise finish up talking fractals, psycho analytics, efficient market theory and compare notes on Nobel Prize winner Harry Markowitz.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Bio-psychology
  • Attachment theory
  • Neurosciences
  • Conviction as data
  • Fractal emotions
  • Efficient market theory
  • Self blame as a positive

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