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“Your book opened my eyes. Thank God for that.”

Listener: Recently, I read three books you have written about Trend Following. Primarily, I am a value investor, but your book opened my eyes. Thank God for that. I am not saying value investing does not work but trend following is perhaps more important.

Thank you very much for having written your splendid books and educating me on Trend Following.

Covel: Thanks [Name]!

Listener: You are welcome Mr. Covel. I have actually bought another one of your books, Trend Commandments. It is very good. I am always surprised at people’s dating and money making strategy and how convinced they are that they have it right even if they are not getting results. To quote John Maynard Keynes who said “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do Sir?”. Unfortunately, people rarely change their mind.

I am surprised you don’t have higher book sales than you have presently. Your books are probably some of the most important works on investing I have read in the last few years. People are lemmings and they’ll easily forgo pots of gold if it means that they’ve stand out of the crowd. I am following you on Twitter now.

Covel: Thanks for the nice words! But I have sold over 200,000 books. My Turtle book is #3000 out of 10 million books on amazon right now. So actually some of best investing sales around.

“Psychology beats business training when it comes to entrepreneurship…”

Feedback in:

Wish they had more detailed results: read.

“…entrepreneurship, or at least some mental habits useful for it, can indeed be taught. More surprising was how poorly the conventional training performed: as far as the researchers could tell, it had no effect at all. Budding entrepreneurs might want to avoid the business shelves and make for the psychology section.”

Best,
[Name]

Thanks!

Ep. 604: Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Mega Decision-Making Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Today’s mega combo episode is Chris Voss, Robert Cialdini, Philip Tetlock, Spyros Makridakis, and Tim Ferriss.

Chris Voss is the author of, Never Split The Difference: Negotiating As If Your Life Depended On It. Chris is a former international hostage negotiator for the FBI. He has had an amazing career full of great experience and insights. Chris first entered the FBI in 1983 and has been involved with over 150 kidnapping cases.

Robert Cialdini is best known for writing Influence: The Psychology of Persuasion published back in 1984. Robert is the “go to man” for understanding effective persuasion. Reciprocity, commitment and consistency, social proof, authority, liking and scarcity are six key principles of influence he teaches. His new book, Pre-Suasion: A Revolutionary Way to Influence and Persuade, introduces a seventh key principle of influence.

Philip Tetlock is a Canadian American political science writer currently at The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. He is right at the intersection of psychology, political science and organizational behavior. His book, Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction, is probabilistic thinking defined. Phil is also a co-principle investigator of The Good Judgment Project, a study on the art and science of prediction and forecasting.

Spyros Makridakis is Rector of the Neapolis University of Pafos NUP and an Emeritus Professor of Decision Sciences at INSEAD as well as the University of Piraeus and one of the world’s leading experts on forecasting, with many journal articles and books on the subject. He is organizer of the Makridakis Competitions, known in the forecasting literature as the M-Competitions.

Tim Ferriss is an author, blogger and motivational speaker known for his bestselling books. Tim has revolutionized the idea of writing a book; he has engineered the process of a bestseller.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Aversion to negotiation
  • Negotiating skills
  • Never pretend people are rational
  • Business negotiations compared to hostage negotiations
  • Lying three times
  • “How” and “Why” questions
  • What are superforecasters?
  • Probabilistic thinking
  • Looking at data
  • Location independence
  • 80/20 rule
  • Known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns
  • Uncertainty
  • How to publish a book

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Jesse Livermore: Reminiscences of a Stock Operator

Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore

Jesse Livermore’s bio ‘Reminiscences of a Stock Operator’ is always good reading (PDF).

Excerpts:

“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”

“Another lesson I learned early is that there is nothing new in Wall Street. There can’t be because speculation is as old as the hills. Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again. I’ve never forgotten that.”

“You watch the market — that is, the course of prices as recorded by the tape with one object: to determine the direction. Prices, we know, will move either up or down according to the resistance they encounter. For purposes of easy explanation we will say that prices, like everything else, move along the line of least resistance. They will do whatever comes easiest, therefore they will go up if there is less resistance to an advance than to a decline; and vice versa.”

“I think it was a long step forward in my trading education when I realized at last that when old Mr. Partridge kept on telling other customers, “Well, you know this is a bull market!” he really meant to tell them that the big money was not in the individual fluctuations but in the main movements that is, not in reading the tape but in sizing up the entire market and its trend.”

Jesse Livermore Books:

• How to Trade in Stocks (PDF)
• Reminiscences of a Stock Operator (PDF)

More on the Jesse Livermore Legacy 

Jesse Livermore
Jesse Livermore

“I am addicted to your podcast…”

Feedback in:

Michael,

I am addicted to your podcast because it is so much more than “trend following”, as the real trend is not in the stock market or any financial market, but in lifestyle and how we interact with those around us.

I am currently listening to your podcast Episode 600 interview with Roger Ver, and it keeps bringing me back to [Name] of The [Name] Podcast. He has a unique and valuable perspective on the economy, especially regarding the political landscape. I would Love for you to have him on your show, as he is a strong libertarian/anarchist but has thought through concepts deeply and is willing to say “I don’t know”. Much like how you communicate that “trend-following” is much more than a trading strategy, he has taught that “permaculture” systems can be applied to all aspects of life, much more than just planting a garden.

Thanks for your valuable podcast and perspective.

[Name] in Pittsburgh, PA

Thanks!

“The words ‘Trend Following’ fascinate me so much…”

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I’m enjoying the reading of your new book Trend Following, 5th edition, as I did with the previous one which I’ve read many times and that is at the top of my personal trading/investing library of 100 books!

The words “Trend Following” fascinate me so much that I think to it from morning till night! I literally love this investing philosophy and I admire your passion, skill and knowledge on this subject.

Now I’ve published a little book that I wrote about investing and that condensate all my personal path: since the beginning in 2008 with intraday trading (3 minutes bars!), to passive index investing (which did not make any sense to my mind) and at last to Trend Following, which I appreciated since the beginning but that I was not able to adopt because of my personal bias and errors (that is, ignorance). Driven by curiosity I wanted to try other paths even if I was aware of the uncertainty of such a costly decision. When I finally I fully appreciated the power of Trend Following philosophy I decided to put it in writings so to have my personal “beacon” without being distracted by other types of approach to investing. With my little book I hope also to contribute divulge in my small way the superiority of this investing philosophy (there’s is also an Italian version on Amazon since last spring).

I would appreciate very much to know what you think about my little book. I can send you a PDF or a kindle version by mail.

Kind regards,
[Name], Italy

I will read it. Thanks!

“THANK YOU for your inspirational PODCASTS and BOOKS!”

Feedback in:

Michael,

I hope you are well.

I just wanted you to know that I walk to keep fit listening to your Podcasts. Since I started lost loads of weight and been inspired! Thank you for the Chris Voss (FBI kidnap negotiator) interview – this was the most inspiring interview for me. I read his book and downloaded the audio. Use his techniques daily in my work. It works too!

On the trading front [name] book started me on the trend follow route which lead me to you. I note whilst you mention [name] – he is low key compared to the other Turtles. It would be great if you had an interview with him.

I have read your books and in the process of downloading the audio versions! They are awesome. Michael – THANK YOU for your inspirational PODCASTS and BOOKS!

With Kind Regards
[Name]

Thanks!

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