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Tag: Trend Following

Ep. 365: Chris Clarke Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Chris Clarke
Chris Clarke

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My guest today is Chris Clarke, ex-Goldman Sachs executive director and founder of Lawrence Clarke Investment Management. Clarke has been developing trading systems for decades.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Trusting the system once you choose it
  • Being prepared to trade no matter which way the markets go
  • The importance of edge, and why gamblers lose
  • Looking at the math behind trading strategies
  • Understanding “market truths”
  • Drawdowns vs. risks

“The desire to maximize the number of winning trades (or minimize the number of losing trades) works against the trader. The success rate of trades is the least important performance statistic and may even be inversely related to performance.” – William Eckhardt

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Am I Just Getting Lucky?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Michael,

As my account is still small (although up 150% so far) I find that I’m trading a lot. I get signals every day and in 3 months have made 185 (counting opening only). I find my self getting stopped out of trades because I can’t take a full position and then getting back in when the market comes back.

I’m not going more than 2 units per trade and 5 units per sector on [entry and] out 2 ATR 2% unit model.

So it’s going well and I’m excited about that but want to make sure I’m not just getting really lucky as opposed to implementing a life changing trading strategy.

Regards,
Jordan

This sounds very short term, and not trend following?

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Passion is Contagious

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

I [wish] I had read your book many years earlier! And your profiling of the long term track records of the some of the big practitioners inspires confidence and this has been borne out [in] academic studies [too]. Although I do not have the time to do trend following personally being a busy physician, I am beginning to deploy monies in managed futures especially because it offers a favorable tax structure. I have been an investor in hedge funds which have generated large short term gains leading to a heavy tax burden over the years.

I am using your resources to research many of the managers with good track records. Do you have any suggestions as to your favorites? I am looking for managers that offer leverage in addition to their standard program. I am currently invested in QIM which has 3x leverage and with Abraham Trading which offers 2x leverage.

Last, your passion is contagious and keep up your good work.

I don’t give recommendations on pro traders, but thanks for the nice words. I will try to keep it all going straight ahead!

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 363: Blair Hull Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Blair Hull
Blair Hull

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My guest today is Blair Hull. Hull founded Hull Investments, LLC in 1999 and currently serves as the firm’s Chairman. He created Hull Tactical Asset Allocation, LLC, a registered investment advisor, in 2013. HTAA operates an actively managed ETF and utilizes advanced algorithms as well as macro and technical indicators to anticipate future market returns. Prior to launching Hull Tactical Asset Allocation, LLC, he was the founder of Hull Trading Company and served as that firm’s Chairman and Chief Executive Officer.

The topics are blackjack and stock trading.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The importance of having a strategy and sticking to it
  • Why money management and discipline are key to trading success
  • Objectivity vs. emotions in blackjack and stock trading
  • Choosing the right markers and variables
  • Consumption as a function of income and wealth
  • The future of market prediction and machine learning

“We get fearful at the wrong times, we get greedy at the wrong times, when we have to stick to a specific plan.” – Blair Hull

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Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below.

Location, Location, Location … in Asia?

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Michael:

How are you doing? I am considering relocating my CTA [pro trend following trader] businesses to New Zealand. Who do you know that I could speak with in that part of the world about the potential of opening new clientele potential for my management products?

Any thoughts that you might have on this subject would be appreciated as well….

Thanks,
[Name]

I have not been to NZ and have zero contacts there. That’s 13 hrs from me [in Asia]! Wish I had better news. Guessing that Singapore would be a better fit for client business. Or at least larger and more easy for launch. Most every [manager] I speak to has little going on [in Asia] except the very large ones. Even those seem to not have a great lay of landscape. Overall Asia is about being on the ground then working out the hard questions [and details]. Very tough to plan it when your not in the middle of it. That’s my single biggest insight after three years [spending much time in Asia].

Mike,

That confirms everything that I know and have learned. Thanks for the quick response.

[Name]

Welcome.

Note: Some more insight (podcast).

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 362: Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why speculation is such an important concept
  • The philosophy behind trend following
  • Watching results rather than causes
  • Cutting short your losses
  • Timeless excerpts from as early as the 1800s
  • The early beginnings of Wall Street

“Cut short your losses, let your profits run on.” – David Ricardo

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

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Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below. Such as is the Jeanne Levy Church foundation a con?

Ep. 361: Francisco Vaca Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Francisco Vaca
Francisco Vaca

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My guest today is Francisco Vaca. Vaca can be called a second generation turtle trader. He worked with Richard Dennis at C & D Commodities, and for the last 15 years has been closely associated with Paul Rabar. He is now the Co-Chief Investment Officer at Rabar Market Research. Before he became a trader, Vaca was a particle physicist and worked at the famous Fermi lab. This is not an insignificant fact, as his background in mathematics and statistics became very useful in his career as a trader.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The importance of distinguishing between long term and short term track records
  • “Alpha” and “beta” trading strategies
  • How the holding period length affects the risk-reward profile and return streaks
  • The benefits of diversification across different holding times
  • Using high frequency trading technology in long term trend following
  • How correlations are often misinterpreted
  • Knowing the limitations of your tools

“The best performing system historically is not necessarily the best system going forward” – Francisco Vaca

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Listen to this episode:

Jump in!

Rate and Review Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below.