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Ep. 363: Blair Hull Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Blair Hull
Blair Hull

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Continuing the theme of speculation and gambling from the previous episode, today’s Trend Following Radio guest is Blair Hull. Hull got his start playing blackjack in Nevada casinos, and later moved onto trading. He founded his investment firm, Hull Investments, in 1999. The company, which leveraged technological innovations and quantitative models, was one of the world’s premier market-making firms, trading on 28 exchanges in nine countries.

The parallels in Hull’s approach to gambling and trading are many. He stresses the importance of objectivity and sticking to the system, especially during a losing streak when emotions run high. It’s not only about brain power, it’s about discipline.

In this interview, Blair Hull and Michael Covel talk about the parallels between blackjack and stock trading, the importance of money management and discipline when following systems, and the future of trading and market prediction.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The importance of having a strategy and sticking to it
  • Why money management and discipline are key to trading success
  • Objectivity vs. emotions in blackjack and stock trading
  • Choosing the right markers and variables
  • Consumption as a function of income and wealth
  • The future of market prediction and machine learning

“We get fearful at the wrong times, we get greedy at the wrong times, when we have to stick to a specific plan.” – Blair Hull

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Eric Schmidt of Google Can’t Predict the Stock Market

From Eric Schmidt Google’s CEO:

“There are many, many things that Google could do, that we chose not to do.”

He added:

“One day we had a conversation where we figured we could just try to predict the stock market. And then we decided it was illegal. So we stopped doing that.”

Google is a great search engine. It won the title of search king and Schmidt has made a fortune. Congratulations. However, when he says stuff like this it makes everyone with a pulse think he was just a lucky idiot.

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