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Tag: performance

Trend Following Wins on Two Fronts

Posted on by Michael Covel

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Make My Dreams A Reality Mr. Covel

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Dear Mr. Covel, Trust you must be doing great.​ ​I ​have read all of your books many times & I really admire you for your methodical approach to markets. I am a IIT-IIM Graduate with more than 22 years of experience in India Capital Markets. I have been able to predict the market turns with close to 90% accuracy with verifiable track record. I appear on CNBC, ZEE Business & ET-NOW regularly. I am really passionate towards my profession. I run a boutique Alternative Investment Management firm specializing in generating positive returns irrespective of Market Direction. We are proficient in all types of Technical Analysis based trading.

1. Conventional Pattern Recognition Based Trading
2. Computerized Algorithm Based Trading
3. Predictive Methodology Based Analysis
4. Behavioral Studies based on Market’s Psychological Profile

I have a proposal to launch an Absolute Alpha Global Hedge Fund using hugely diversified strategies for trading in multiple asset classes such as different Global Equity Indices, Commodities & Currencies. As we will be using just 30% fund in trading, more than 60% funds will be used in Global Arbitrage to generate fixed income for balancing the risk. We are fully confident that we will be able to give more than 20% positive returns per annum in USD terms with less than 10% Equity drawdown. We wish to create a Global Hedge Fund which specializes in generating super normal positive returns every year. This structure has humongous potential to become a hugely successful Fund in just 2 to 3 years. I have 100% conviction in my abilities to deliver the real performance. An association with your company will give us everything what we are looking for. I look forward to hear positively from you soon to make my dream into reality. I promise you to give my 100% efforts to deliver more than the promise.

Thanks & warm regards,
[Name]

I don’t recall ever writing about 90% accuracy. Isn’t that the Holy Grail of all Holy Grails? Even if you had that accuracy how does it guarantee you make money? You could be accurate 90% of the time and still lose massive money on the other 10%. Accuracy talk is not trend following.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Goes for the Middle Meat

Posted on by Michael Covel

Consider an illustration that can make you rich:

trend following chart

Trend following does not pick bottoms or tops. You always get into a trend late, and get out late. You cannot predict a trend. That chart might not seem like a great strategy at first glance, but it is the foundation of one of the most profitable insights in the history of market speculation: capture the middle meat and you can make a fortune.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

“Listen, I surrender, you beat me Mr. Market, now where do you want to go?”

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

Hey Michael,

Recently I started listening to your podcast and have been researching a bit of what you have been saying. I find your podcast I be extremely informative. I think sometimes it’s the kind of kick in the ass the public needs so I am glad you are out there speaking your mind on a lot of important topics.

I did find a lot of research verifying that trend following is a valid strategy and one where a lot of people have made a decent amount of money. However, I couldn’t find very good information as far as annual returns over the long-term goes. Can you send me some of this?

The trend following system, in general, makes a lot of sense. Trends happen, obviously. Those who want to be a passenger can be and can make a lot of money. Intuitively I like the idea. It appeals to my sense of logic. You’re not trying to figure out anything. You’re merely saying, I don’t know where this will go, it seems to be going somewhere, and you buckle your seat belt. The seat belt is the stop-loss in this analogy.

Anyhow, just wanted to send a kudos your way. Keep up the good work. Would like to hear you talk more about a lot of people that are in boats they never thought they’d be in. For instance, in my case, I got myself into a lot of debt via students loans. It’s not an easy ride in this economy to have a degree no one cares about (I have an MBA). Agree with the entrepreneurial lifestyle. I worked a dead-end job for a bit of time and now am ready to move on to something new and try to get out of the “zombie-like” mindset.

I have subscribed to a while to value investing and found lots of research to show it does work. The problem with value investing, compared to trend following, is that it takes a tremendous amount of work to try to figure out something the market doesn’t already know or find where the market differs from the underlying value of a company. Trend following seems to hold up the white flag and say, “Listen, I surrender, you beat me Mr. Market, now where do you want to go?”

Regards,
Larry H.

Thanks! Data? See.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Hit The !@#$ Home Run!

Posted on by Michael Covel

Some companies, and individuals, stress [focus on] the short-term performance of trend followers. They look at one month’s performance, see a down month, and panic. They have complete ignorance of the long-term objective–big money. How bad can it get? I have seen trend following traders make 100 percent in a year followed by a year where they lost 5 percent. That 5 percent loss causes some critics to not see the 100 percent number. That is insane thinking. Just like a baseball player’s batting average can have short-term up or down streaks over the course of a season, trend followers have streaks. Trend following performance will deviate from averages, but over time there is remarkable consistency when it comes to putting up big returns—as long as unpredictable home runs are allowed to happen naturally and unforced. The leading thinkers across varied fields, including insurance, casino gambling, and investing, all emphasize the same point. It’s the Babe Ruth effect: Even though Ruth struck out a lot, he was one of baseball’s greatest hitters. The home runs made up for his strikeouts. A trend follower coaching a baseball team would approach it like the former manager of the Baltimore Orioles. Earl Weaver designed his offenses to maximize the chance of a three-run homer. Weaver did not bunt or want guys who slapped singles. He wanted guys who hit big home runs. Trading is a waiting game. You sit, you wait, and you make a lot of money all at once. Profits come in bunches. The trick when going sideways between home runs is not to lose too much in between.

Note: From my book Trend Commandments. Shout to Michael Mauboussin.

IMG_7697

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following Works Across all Markets

Posted on by Michael Covel

Looking for a system that works in all markets? Consider some feedback:

Hello Mr. Covel from Turkey, I have read your book. I have been interested [in] trendfollowing for 4 years, but I am look[ing] for [a] trading system that work[s] for everything–all markets. I have not found the system that works [for] everything, and it makes me angry. Can you give me advise [on a] system that work[s] everywhere?

Best Regards,
[Name]

Note: I have been back testing for 4 years.

My trading systems work on all markets: read. Have you reviewed? Also, don’t be angry. That won’t help you.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Give Me the Data; Don’t Whine

Posted on by Michael Covel

You have a trading strategy that works? Prove it. Give me the empirical data. Or you can go this direction:

When people see something they love is under threat, their first reaction is to build an “impenetrable” wall, a Maginot Line–and just to be extra safe they decide to enclose a bit more territory, a buffer zone, inside its fortifications. It seems like a good, prudent idea. It seems to protect us from the awful slippery slope, the insidious thin edge of the wedge, and as everyone knows, if you give them an inch, they’ll take a mile. Dig the moat! Build the wall! And as far out as you can afford. But this policy typically burdens the defenders with a brittle, extravagant (implausible, indefensible) set of dogmas that cannot be defended rationally–and hence must be defended, in the end, with desperate clawing and shouting.

Start with the data. Then clawing and shouting go away.

connectome

Source: Dennett, Daniel C. (2013-05-06). Intuition Pumps And Other Tools for Thinking (p. 204). W. W. Norton & Company. Kindle Edition.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.