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Trend Following and Controlled Baseball

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This post [below in italics] brings up some thoughts on selling trend following. Selling the logic of how and why it works doesn’t seem to pump people up enough to get them to try it. Its a story people don’t want to listen to even if it’s true. When it comes to investing, I feel people want to buy something that caters to their laziness, them wanting to feel cool or safe. I find it funny when trend traders scratch their heads wondering why more people aren’t investing this way. But the psychology that keeps them from investing in it is the same psychology that provides trend following profits. To me, it’s an interesting paradox.

Kanri Yaku (by S. Godin): Literally, “controlled baseball.” If you’re playing this way, it’s by the numbers. The manager tells you precisely what to do, and you do it. There are algorithms for when to bunt, for when to throw a ball. And there is no room for surprise. It is ground out (not a pun), controlled and predictable. Kanri yakyu will often get you into the playoffs. It rarely means you’re going to win the big games, though. The secret is being able to play this way when you need to, but being brave enough to leap when it’s least expected. Just like your career.


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