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Tag: systematic trading

Ep. 417: Robert Carver Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Robert Carver
Robert Carver

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My guest today is Robert Carver. He got his start in finance working at AHL. Robert started with AHL in 2001 during his final year of college. It was at this time that he was introduced to quantitative trading and began thinking of finance in a systematic way. He later went back to AHL, working there from 2006-2013. He is an independent systematic futures trader and investor, writer, and research consultant. He is currently a visiting lecturer at Queen Mary, University of London.

The topic is his book Systematic Trading: A unique new method for designing trading and investing systems.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Unpredictable risk vs. Predictable risk
  • Systematic trading
  • High frequency trading vs. Trend following trading
  • Black swans
  • When to intervene with your system
  • 2008 crash

“People rarely evaluate themselves critically and properly work out how well they have done in their discretionary trading activity, and look at statistics properly to examine whether they are genuinely doing much better than a system. I think a lot of people out there are fooling themselves.” – Robert Carver

“The more complicated the notion of what your predicable risk is, the less and less you think about the un-predictable risk.” – Robert Carver

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How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas

Posted on by Michael Covel

Excerpt:

“Hungarian by birth, Nicolas Darvas trained as an economist at the University of Budapest. Reluctant to remain in Hungary until either the Nazis or the Soviets took over, he fled at the age of 23 with a forged exit visa and fifty pounds sterling to stave off hunger in Istanbul, Turkey. During his off hours as a dancer, he read some 200 books on the market and the great speculators, spending as much as eight hours a day studying. Darvas invested his money into a couple of stocks that had been hitting their 52-week high. He was utterly surprised that the stocks continued to rise and subsequently sold them to make a large profit. His main source of stock selection was Barron’s Magazine. At the age of 39, after accumulating his fortune, Darvas documented his techniques in the book, How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market. The book describes his unique “Box System”, which he used to buy and sell stocks. Darvas’ book remains a classic stock market text to this day.”

How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas

On Amazon.

Yes, the Darvis Method is a form of trend following.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Use a computer rather than your brain…

Posted on by Michael Covel

CNBC: One of the U.K.’s most successful hedge fund managers [David Harding in pic] has spoken of the benefits of using the “emotionless systematic approach”.

Covel: That’s another way of saying trend following.

David Harding
David Harding

Source: www.insidermonkey.com

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Trend Following and Controlled Baseball

Posted on by Michael Covel

Feedback in:

This post [below in italics] brings up some thoughts on selling trend following. Selling the logic of how and why it works doesn’t seem to pump people up enough to get them to try it. Its a story people don’t want to listen to even if it’s true. When it comes to investing, I feel people want to buy something that caters to their laziness, them wanting to feel cool or safe. I find it funny when trend traders scratch their heads wondering why more people aren’t investing this way. But the psychology that keeps them from investing in it is the same psychology that provides trend following profits. To me, it’s an interesting paradox.

Kanri Yaku (by S. Godin): Literally, “controlled baseball.” If you’re playing this way, it’s by the numbers. The manager tells you precisely what to do, and you do it. There are algorithms for when to bunt, for when to throw a ball. And there is no room for surprise. It is ground out (not a pun), controlled and predictable. Kanri yakyu will often get you into the playoffs. It rarely means you’re going to win the big games, though. The secret is being able to play this way when you need to, but being brave enough to leap when it’s least expected. Just like your career.

Nice.

How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

• Trend Following Podcast Guests
• Frequently Asked Questions
• Performance
• Research
• Markets to Trade
• Crisis Times
• Trading Technology
• About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.