Some great feedback came through the other other day:
It’s because of you my friend that I’ve come to know so many in the space. Thanks for your efforts.
His personal message to me (above) was followed by his newsletter to his clients:
In my career, I’ve had many mentors, some of which I’ve met and some not.
Tom Basso is one of these people, and I was fortunate to get to meet him last week where he was generous enough to give me over two hours of his time over lunch in Scottsdale. Tom is also getting added to the email list and may be able to contribute some wisdom from time to time.
Tom Basso trader is probably most known for being profiled in the bestseller, The New Market Wizards, where he was nicknamed “Mr. Serenity.”
The scope of our discussion was very broad… Tom left the money management business largely because of the frustration of working with clients who constantly made poor decisions that were rooted in fear and greed. Tom produced decades of double digit gains for clients on a very attractive risk-adjusted basis yet many never achieved these results because of emotions and performance chasing. As you know, I write on these subjects regularly because they matter that much.
One thing Tom mentioned that was particularly interesting was how at the later stages of his career (approximately 10 years ago) Tom put together a diversified program that was a combination of strategies, asset classes, and products (meaning futures, ETF’s, mutual funds, etc.). He said he himself was the largest customer and it seemed that many people just simply didn’t grasp the value. Regulatory restrictions about combining multiple products together (such as equities and futures) made it overly obstructive. This, in essence, is exactly what I’m trying to do with LCD (Lorintine Capital Diversified) as it mimics endowment level diversification.
The benefit of a multi-strategy single account is it doesn’t give you the opportunity to miss the forest through the trees and take from those who may be underperforming in the short term in favor of those who are currently performing best…essentially the process of buy HIGH and sell LOW where you should be doing the opposite. Tom mentioned how he had a client during the Black Monday crash of 1987 (largest single down day in history where the Dow lost over 22%) that he had set up one account as a stock portfolio and another account as a hedging portfolio where he would short equity futures based on his quantitative market measurements… The client ended up making money on Black Monday (about 1.5% from Tom’s memory) while of course the stock account was down significantly it was more than offset by the short futures account…The client ended up firing Tom as an equity manager because they couldn’t see past the losses in the stock account…yet if this would have been done collectively in one account they would have only seen the net gain (on the worst day in history where many traders went bankrupt). Unfortunately, I’ve witnessed much of this type of behavior in 2014 as some things never change.
This game is incredibly simple, yet not at all easy. It’s simple the same way that getting in shape or losing weight is – just get on almost any decent diet and work out consistently and you are almost guaranteed results… yet few have the discipline to do it day after day for the long term. Make it your goal in 2015 to follow your plan. If you don’t really have a plan it’s like not being able to spot the sucker at the poker table… because you’re it.
My guest today is Peter Larson, an American paleontologist, fossil collector, and president of the Black Hills Institute of Geological Research, a company that excavates, prepares, and sells fossils. He led the team that excavated “Sue”, the largest and most complete specimen of Tyrannosaurus rex found to date, and has published numerous scientific and popular works on dinosaur paleontology.
The topic is paleontology.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
Luck’s role in finding dinosaurs
Larson’s personal anecdotes about finding “Sue”
Whether Larson knew at the time that he was finding a piece of “land” in a legal sense
The scientific data that Larson was able to glean before the government took the bones
Telling a male dinosaur from a female dinosaur
What makes Larson a T-Rex entrepreneur
T-Rex as a predator or scavenger
The legal case surrounding “Sue”
Listen to this episode:
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My guest today is Jean-Philippe Bouchaud, a French physicist. He is co-founder and Chairman of Capital Fund Management, adjunct professor at École Normale Supérieure and co-director of the CFM-Imperial Institute of Quantitative Finance at Imperial College London.
The topic is Trend Following.
In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:
His firm’s performance for 2014
Whether trend following actually “died” prior to it’s “reappearance” in 2014
What trend following manages to exploit
Exploiting vs. exploring
Looking at volatility as a precursor to profit
Volatility as a measure of risk
Trend following as a genuine market anomaly
The behavioral biases in play as oil has fallen fifty percent plus
The feedback Bouchaud has received from peers on his newest paper
Whether other strategies exploit a genuine market anomaly
Bouchaud’s philosophy on transparency and “secrets” in his work
Why Bouchaud’s work culture is not a culture of MBA’s
Listen to this episode:
Listen to this podcast on iTunes. (Please leave a rating!)
Listener: I would enjoy the opportunity to gain lots of experience in the world of trend following. I would like to explore the opportunity of offering my employment services free of charge to anyone (yourself included) who could benefit from the services of a young, ambitious, intelligent and entrepreneurial spirit. I need to change my family’s life. We are a young family of 5 with a 7, 2 and 5 month old. My wife and I have discussed this at length, and I am ready to put in 24 hr days anywhere in the world. I have been an entrepreneur all my life. I am not scared to work. I am willing to relocate if you would agree that any opportunity presenting itself warrants it, or work remotely on any endeavour where I can gain more knowledge and some first hand experience. I am sure this is not the first email of this type that you have received. But mark my words, I am willing to give my all to anyone who needs assistance and help them make a lot of money! I just want to learn this business and learn from the best players in the industry if possible. I am ready for this. I have been on the outside looking in for way too long. I want to make the leap but do not have the experience. I am available any time of day or night to discuss this in further detail if necessary. 2015 needs to be a fresh start for me and my family. I am ready to give my all to whomever could use a hard worker in their business.
Covel: You have gone through all of my books and all of my podcast? My first big question.
Listener: No I have not completed all of the books and podcasts as of yet. I am completing the books and will have to start the podcasts. Admittedly, I have only ever listened to one podcast in my whole life which was one in which you were a guest speaker and that was via YouTube. I will commit to reading all of the books and listening to all of the podcasts by Wednesday Jan 14th at midnight. I will email you with my progress by 9am est on Wed Jan 15th or sooner if I complete this task earlier.
Weeks later:
Listener: I am in the process of finishing the books and have a big task of listening to all of the podcasts now. Would you like for me to ensure I have listened to them all before re-contacting you? I apologize for being late as I stated I would email by 9am this morning.
Covel: Sure, but you will also have many answers then.
Listener: Not sure I follow what you have said. Sorry. I had originally contacted you asking if you had any ideas or opportunities for employment or for me to enter the field and then you had asked if I read the books and listened to the podcasts.
Covel: Exactly. Your question will go a long way to being answered if you follow my instructions.
Just a quick one to say thanks for your podcast and your work. Just finished your book and have been listening to your podcast for about 6 months now. I’ve been studying in a share trading diploma here in Australia to get me started but as I’ve progressed I’ve noticed so many holes in the theories surrounding market timing in particular. I haven’t been content to just assume these methods work.
I’m a huge Oakland A’s fan and I’m a big sabermetrics guy. Trend Following looked like the most logical method of trading to me, but once you compared it to baseball it concreted it in my mind. It’s logical! You can’t argue a point (very well) with qualitative data. In my mind that applies to everything in life…. so why not trading?
