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Category: Economics

Ep. 362: Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

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Please enjoy my monologue Speculation Wins Today with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why speculation is such an important concept
  • The philosophy behind trend following
  • Watching results rather than causes
  • Cutting short your losses
  • Timeless excerpts from as early as the 1800s
  • The early beginnings of Wall Street

“Cut short your losses, let your profits run on.” – David Ricardo

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Ep. 355: Ed Seykota Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Ed Seykota
Ed Seykota

My guest today is Ed Seykota, a commodities trader, who earned S.B. degrees in Electrical Engineering from MIT and Management from the MIT Sloan School of Management, both in 1969. In 1970 he pioneered Systems trading by using early punched card computers to test ideas on trading the markets. Originally profiled in the classic book ‘The Market Wizards’, Seykota has played a pivotal role in the growth of trend following trading for 40 years.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Govopoly
  • Trading Tribe
  • Trend Following

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Ep. 342: Victor Ricciardi Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Victor Ricciardi
Victor Ricciardi

My guest today is Victor Ricciardi, an Assistant Professor of Financial Management at Goucher College. Professor Ricciardi is a leading expert on the academic literature and emerging research issues in behavioral finance. He is the editor of several eJournals distributed by the Social Science Research Network (SSRN). Ricciardi is also the co-editor of the book Investor Behavior: The Psychology of Financial Planning and Investing.

The topic is behavioral finance.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Risk perception vs. risk tolerance
  • The affect and the anchoring heuristic
  • Behavioral finance vs. behavioral economics
  • Looking at behavioral finance in the context of specific strategies
  • Behavioral economics in the context of asset bubbles and the popping of asset bubbles
  • Why economic growth does not increase happiness; mindfulness as an assist in the notion of good decision-making; the notion of animal spirits
  • Behavioral school vs. the classical school in academia

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Ep. 339: Tim Price Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Tim Price
Tim Price

My guest today is Tim Price, the London-based Director of Investment at PFP Wealth Management. Price has over 20 years of experience in both private client and institutional investment management.

The topic is his blog The Price of Everything.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why the fundamentals are so ‘shocking’
  • FDR and the Great Depression
  • Why government taking its hands out of the equation can be the solution in a recession or depression
  • Why savers suffer in silence
  • The three scenarios that occur when you accept that much debt simply cannot be paid back (growth, default, or inflation)
  • The standoff between Germany and Greece, and how the average German might feel today about common currency
  • The lack of outrage of zero interest rate policy

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Spyros Makridakis Interview Followup

Posted on by Michael Covel

A followup from a recent conversation with Spyros Makridakis:

Dear Mike,

It was nice to talk to you this morning. As I promised I am attaching the following three papers:

  • Medicine. This is an extract from an article I am writing about Forecasting and Uncertainty. It is amazing that the forecasting record of medicine is so dismal as it involves our lives and health.
  • Positive Illusions. This is a recent paper that will be published in a book of readings.
  • Why Forecasts Fail. A paper published in the Sloan Management Review that explains why forecasts fail and how I got involved in this line of research.

I am also attaching the cover copy of the book by Ablin (the guy who discovered the PSA test for prostate cancer) and his view about the validity of the test he discovered.

Let me know if I can be of any additional help and please send me the link of your podcast once it is ready.

Best,
Spyros Makridakis

Thanks!

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Ep. 336: Colin Camerer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Colin Camerer
Colin Camerer

My guest today is Colin Camerer, an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is on the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. This work seeks a better understanding of the psychological and neurobiological basis of decision-making in order to determine the validity of models of human economic behavior. His research uses mostly economics experiments—and occasionally field studies—to understand how people behave when making decisions (e.g., risky gambles for money), in games, and in markets (e.g., speculative price bubbles).

The topics are cognitive psychology and economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why Camerer was called a child prodigy, and how he looks at that term in the context of nurture vs. nature
  • Synthesizing behavioral economics and neuroscience; understanding Camerer’s studies when traders aren’t looking at the market on a day-to-day basis; how we can stimulate the brain to create a bubble
  • The ethical issues surrounding Camerer’s work
  • Machine learning and data mining
  • Neuroscience and game theory
  • Comparing humans and chimps in the study of neuroscience
  • How trust correlates with economic growth
  • How emotion functions in the modern world

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Ep. 335: The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Bitcoin Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.