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Category: Black Swan Thinking

Ep. 376: Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Overcoming Bias with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The use and misuse of statistics
  • Using skepticism to your advantage
  • The advantages of algorithmic trading
  • Leda Braga on why ‘Black Box’ isn’t a fair term
  • Daniel Dennett’s simplifications of algorithms and computing
  • Trend following as simple agnostic rules that can easily be passed to a computer
  • Efficient market theory failure during surprises

“You want to be a contrarian. You want to be on the other side of the coin. Don’t be with everyone. Stand to the side. That’s where the opportunity is…” – Michael Covel

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Ep. 375: Mark Sleeman Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Mark Sleeman
Mark Sleeman

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My guest today is Mark Sleeman, the managing director and founder of M.S. Capital Management Limited (“MS”). Mark lives in Auckland, New Zealand and holds an honours degree in Mechanical Engineering (1985) from Auckland university. With over 30 years of trading and research, Mark has extensive experience in trading system design and implementation. Mark is registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is a member of the National Futures Association, as the principal and associated person of MS.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The fallacy of “buy low, sell high”
  • The psychology of trading
  • Keeping your losses small
  • The importance of maintaining a life
  • Focusing on the strategy, not the instrument
  • Understanding that patience has to be learned

“You’ve gotta be robust because you’re gonna see good markets and you’re gonna see bad markets. I’ve certainly seen both, and expect to see more of both.” – Mark Sleeman

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Ep. 374: The Death Cross with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The Death Cross with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Death Cross with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue The Death Cross with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • The importance of ignoring old concepts
  • Trend Following is about taking action
  • Why no one can predict where the market is headed
  • Incorporating the Death Cross into a diversified portfolio
  • Understanding momentum trading
  • The idea of “heuristics”

“Woe to the unwary trader who relies on the urban legends to inform an outlook.” – Barry Ritholtz

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Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Ep. 373: Lasse Pedersen interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Lasse Pedersen
Lasse Pedersen

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My guest today is Lasse Pedersen, a finance professor at Copenhagen Business School, principal at AQR Capital Management, and author of the new book “Efficiently Inefficient”. Pedersen earned his Ph.D. in finance from Stanford University and has over a decade of experience in the industry.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Discretionary vs. quantitative trading
  • The importance of sticking to your financial plan
  • The various investment styles of the successful
  • How reflexivity affects market prices
  • Backtesting to identify effective investment strategy
  • The role of hedge funds

“I think that good quant investment managers can really be thought of as financial economists who’ve codified their beliefs into a repeatable process. They are distinguished by their diversification, sticking to their process with discipline, and the ability to engineer portfolio characteristics.” – Cliff Asness

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Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Ep. 370: Instruments vs. Strategy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
Instruments vs. Strategy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
Instruments vs. Strategy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue Instruments vs. Strategy with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Defining the exact risks involved in a trading strategy
  • The importance of liquidity: entering and exiting markets with ease
  • What we can learn from the history of Commodities Corporation
  • How the scientific method applies to trading logic
  • How Fundamental Analysis differs from Technical Analysis
  • The origins and basic principles of Trend Following Trading
  • The importance of accepting the risks and committing to your strategy

“Never mind the cheese, let me out of the trap” – Amos Hostetter

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Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below.

Ep. 366: The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Posted on by Michael Covel
The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Subscribe to Trend Following Radio on iTunes

Please enjoy my monologue The Statistical Mindset with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio:

  • Having a foundation, a system to get through the noise
  • Developing a statistical mindset
  • Understanding risk and knowing how to deal with it
  • Getting “under the hood” of any trading system
  • Richard Feynman’s lecture on computer heuristics
  • What computer heuristics have to do with systems trading
  • A trait that geniuses have in common
  • The importance of isolation and concentration in learning

“The most important thing is to feel about things you should feel about, and think about things you should think about.” – Penn Jillette

Mentions & Resources:

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Get the foundation to making money in up, down and *surprise markets on the Trend Following mailing list.

Have a question or comment about this episode? Post it below.

Feynman: Mathematicians versus Physicists

Posted on by Michael Covel

The physicist trader is the more likely answer (versus Mathematician).

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