Hi Michael, this is [name] from Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. What is your take on Gold and soft commodities for the present year and where do you think the Dolllar is heading to? Warm Regards, [name]
Hi, are you familiar with my trend following research?
Yes i have read your books namely Trend Following and TurtleTrader. For a fact you go with the trend, but just wanted to know as to how you see these trends goin…
But I am a trend follower, not trend predictor! Trend followers don’t make predictions. Both my books emphatically say that. It’s not a joke!
Having lived through the financial crisis of 2007-08, the man in the street might find the idea that markets are “efficient” incredible. But the efficient-market hypothesis, like a Hollywood monster, has proved very hard to kill off. From the truism that the average investor could not beat the market after costs, academics developed the insight that obvious market-beating opportunities would quickly be arbitraged away.
Here is a great example of efficient markets — not:
That chart could only have been effectively traded as a trend following trader. You used fundamentals to trade that? You are full of it or you were flipping coins and hit heads.
I am currently reading “Market Wizards” and came across an interesting quote by Michael Marcus, who said, “I do believe that trend following systems are doomed to mediocrity. I believe that the era of trend following is over until and unless there is a particular imbalance in a market that overrides everything else.”
That book was written over 20 years ago. What has happened since?
Bernard Drury (PDF) is a trend trader today, but he started as a fundamental grain trader. He is in my new book.
Disclaimers:
Our firm can not promise you will earn like returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) mentioned. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google, IASG and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
Following a research project that was initiated in 1987, Transtrend B.V. (“Transtrend”) was established in 1991 as an asset manager purely focused on systematic trading strategies. Transtrend’s approach is aimed at exploiting trends in financial and commodities markets and is entirely based on quantitative analysis of typical price behavior in these markets. Transtrend’s trading strategies have no directional bias and can go long or short in their attempt to benefit from price patterns that represent good profit expectancy over time.
Performance (The Enhanced Risk (USD)/Transtrend’s Diversified Trend Program):
Disclaimers:
Our firm can not promise you will earn like returns of traders, charts or examples (real or hypothetical) mentioned. All past performance is not necessarily an indication of future results. Data presented is for educational purposes. This information is not designed to be used as an invitation for investment with any adviser profiled. All data on this site is direct from the CFTC, SEC, Yahoo Finance, Google, IASG and disclosure documents by managers mentioned herein. We assume all data to be accurate, but assume no responsibility for errors, omissions or clerical errors made by sources.
HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.
