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Ep. 379: John Casti Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

John Casti
John Casti

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My guest today is John Casti, an internationally-recognized complexity scientist and best-selling popular science author, mathematician, and entrepreneur. He has written more than 120 scientific articles, seven technical monographs and textbooks on mathematical modeling, and sixteen books on popular science. His book, Alternate Realities, was awarded the Association of American Publishers prize. Prey for Me is his first work of fiction.

The topics are his books X-Events: The Collapse of Everything and Mood Matters: From Rising Skirt Lengths to the Collapse of World Powers.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • The fundamentals of socionomics
  • The science of surprise
  • Understanding that social mood is time-dependent
  • How X-events can trigger mood reversals
  • Isolating the collective social belief
  • The mindset of “the crowd”

“So you’re gonna have a lot of small losers. But, hopefully, you have a few homeruns that pay for the losers and leave you something extra for your efforts.” – John Casti

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Ep. 377: Annie Duke Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Annie Duke
Annie Duke

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My guest today is Annie Duke, an author, corporate speaker, and consultant in the decision-making space. As a former professional poker player, Annie won more than $4 million in tournament poker before retiring from the game in 2012. Prior to becoming a professional player, Annie was awarded a National Science Foundation Fellowship to study Cognitive Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. Annie is the co-founder of The Alliance for Decision Education, a non-profit whose mission is to improve lives by empowering students through decision skills education. She is also a member of the National Board of After-School All-Stars and the Board of Directors of the Franklin Institute.

The topic is trading and gambling.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Focusing on the process instead of the outcome
  • Understanding that it’s about your return, not you winning percentage
  • Recognizing that in investing, consistency is unnatural
  • Thinking probabilistically
  • Maximizing your expectancy
  • Understanding that a loss doesn’t necessarily reflect bad thinking

“When you focus on outcome over process you actually reduce innovation in your company.” – Annie Duke

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How Successful is Cold Calling?

Feedback in:

Did you ever do any podcasts that covers the probability and numbers game aspect of cold calling and sales? Was listening to one of your podcast episodes and seems to be a lot of similarities between trend following and cold calling.

Lots of small losses (the people who say no) and then the big gainers (the companies who say yes and become great customers).

Discipline, having and following a system, managing your bankroll (which in sales is time), cutting your losses (move on to the next call), letting your winners run (developing a long standing client who does a lot of business with you, tracking and analyzing metrics (best days to call, best times to call, best approach to use, best questioning strategies, etc).

[Name]

Know any good write-ups on cold calling and math?


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

New Trend Following Trader in Israel

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First, let me tell you how I learn and get boosted mentally from your podcast. I was on the path of systematic trading before I got to know about you but the great diversity of people and subjects of knowledge make your podcast a joy to listen to. Specially if you are in the business of increasing the confidence that one have in pursuing his own way of living and investing. Now, I tried to enter my appreciation about the podcast in iTunes but could not do it because we cannot see your podcast in the iTunes defined for Israel. If you would like a recommendation here, in LinkedIn, I would really be happy to give it to you.

Please send me the PDF about the new system. I am sure I can learn a lot from it although I am not a TradeStation user.

Thanks for everything and keep the good work,
[Name]

Thanks! I will always take a nice recommendation!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Great Content, Boring Interview!

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

Love your podcast, but the [Name] interview was excruciatingly painful to sit through. He might be a great research guy, but watching paint dry is more satisfying than listening to him talk. Just my opinion, but he should stick to his investing and stay away from PR.

Just read your TurtleTrader book. Enjoyed!

Thanks,
[Name]

Thanks. Some brilliant guys can’t say it all so eloquently. I say – so what!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Job Seekers: Read Seth Godin’s Linchpin

Feedback in:

Mr. Covel,

First let me just acknowledge I know you instructed me to do more than just email you regarding a research assistant job that requires relocation to Asia and I fully intend to pursue other contact avenues, but I wanted to put something down as a primer for you as I pursue you via phone, etc. I’m also aware that you mentioned this in a podcast from February of 2014, but I’m still so struck with the opportunity and your books that I had to write and hope a position of some kind is still available or something can be worked out between us if you feel I’m a fit.

My background: I’ve been a big fan of your work since reading The Little Book of Trading last summer. I came to find you from watching a [name] DVD of a seminar you spoke at and while I almost immediately dropped [other style], I pursued trend following education immediately. I looked into Ed Seykota’s trading tribe and you’re right. I felt like Yoda was talking at a level far beyond mere markets, but it was something David Harding said about having come up in the business by spending hours hand charting that set me to work drawing market after market and time frame after time frame. This has been a huge help. I’ve since read all of your books and the independent thinker in me is totally taken with the approach. I agree with your opinion about the future state of our workforce being arbitraged away by the internet and technology and I’m doing everything under my power to educate myself.

I would be completely exhilarated to work with you on this research project and also excited to relocate to Asia. I’ve spent the last three and a half years living in NYC, studying market s all day, hand charting and reading everything I can. Previous to this I worked in the entertainment business as I Creative Executive for a film director (hugely research intensive) as well as a writer. Then I got hooked on markets. I took the route with [firm name], spending a lot of money and again, trying to be a daytrader as I erroneously assumed this was the way to riches. I read all the standard books and tried method after method. I was hooked because I’ve always been an individualist and I wanted to carve out my future through my own sweat. I’m now finally cured of this daytrading fever, and the Managed Futures/Quant/Macro Funds are my model of ideal approach to trading, thanks to your work.

Incidentally, I’ve been looking often on over the last six months to find a way to relocate internationally and find something to do to support myself while studying markets, so the opportunity to work with the guy who has sat down with the best of the best and created his own ingenious niche in this business seems like fate. Do please consider me as a candidate, I’m hardworking, endlessly curious and ready for adventure. As I said, I will be pursuing you via phone and other avenues ASAP. Just for reference my cell phone is [#]. I look forward to talking.

Best regards,
[Name]

Thanks for your interest and the feedback.

Note: For everyone on the job pursuit path consider here.


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

William Poundstone’s Fortune’s Formula: Trend Following Insights

Feedback in:

Hi Michael,

I’ve been visiting your website for a while now and I just wanted to drop a note of appreciation for the interviews that you put up on your website. All of the interviews I have listened to have been extremely interesting and high quality. I particularly like the diversity of interviewee’s and content covering a wide range of subjects.

I think I first came across you site while looking for information about Daniel Kahneman and came across your interview with him on 212. Which led me to your others interviews. I bought William Poundstone’s ‘Fortune’s Formula’ immediately after listening to your podcast 254 with him and now have a couple of your books on order.

Although I’ve always had an interest in economics, I’ve never been all that interested in trading before but you website has convinced me to take a closer look. So thanks for creating a content packed website and great interviews. I now look forward to any new interviews you do and visit your site frequently for any updates.

Thanks in advance,
[Name]

Thanks!


How can you move forward immediately to Trend Following profits? My books and my Flagship Course and Systems are trusted options by clients in 70+ countries.

Also jump in:

Trend Following Podcast Guests
Frequently Asked Questions
Performance
Research
Markets to Trade
Crisis Times
Trading Technology
About Us

Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.