Today’s guest is prolific author, mathematician and entrepreneur John Casti. John talks with Michael Covel about social mood, and how ultimately the events that urge populations to move in one direction or another are largely unpredictable.
John discusses the concept of socionomics – the idea that the collective beliefs of a society about its future will influence the kinds of social events to occur in that future. And while these triggers, which John refers to as X-events, can’t be predicted, John explains that they can absolutely be prepared for by understanding the greater social context of the region.
As an example, John cites the so-called Arab Spring. As he points out, no one could have predicted the single event that moved millions in the Arab World to take to the streets in protest. But it wasn’t hard to see that the region had long been primed for something big. Charles Faulkner recommended John as a guest (even though he only knew his work). Good tip from Charles!
In this episode of Trend Following Radio:
- The fundamentals of socionomics
- The science of surprise
- Understanding that social mood is time-dependent
- How X-events can trigger mood reversals
- Isolating the collective social belief
- The mindset of “the crowd”
“So you’re gonna have a lot of small losers. But, hopefully, you have a few homeruns that pay for the losers and leave you something extra for your efforts.” – John Casti
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