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Spyros Makridakis Interview Followup

A followup from a recent conversation with Spyros Makridakis:

Dear Mike,

It was nice to talk to you this morning. As I promised I am attaching the following three papers:

  • Medicine. This is an extract from an article I am writing about Forecasting and Uncertainty. It is amazing that the forecasting record of medicine is so dismal as it involves our lives and health.
  • Positive Illusions. This is a recent paper that will be published in a book of readings.
  • Why Forecasts Fail. A paper published in the Sloan Management Review that explains why forecasts fail and how I got involved in this line of research.

I am also attaching the cover copy of the book by Ablin (the guy who discovered the PSA test for prostate cancer) and his view about the validity of the test he discovered.

Let me know if I can be of any additional help and please send me the link of your podcast once it is ready.

Best,
Spyros Makridakis

Thanks!


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Trend Following is for beginners, students and pros in all countries. This is not day trading 5-minute bars, prediction or analyzing fundamentals–it’s Trend Following.

Ep. 337: Michael Covel Speech and William Ury Interview on Trend Following Radio

William Ury
William Ury

Please enjoy my monologue Michael Covel Speech and William Ury Interview on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

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Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Michael Covel Presentation
Michael Covel Presentation

Ep. 336: Colin Camerer Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Colin Camerer
Colin Camerer

My guest today is Colin Camerer, an American behavioral economist and a Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech). Camerer’s research is on the interface between cognitive psychology and economics. This work seeks a better understanding of the psychological and neurobiological basis of decision-making in order to determine the validity of models of human economic behavior. His research uses mostly economics experiments—and occasionally field studies—to understand how people behave when making decisions (e.g., risky gambles for money), in games, and in markets (e.g., speculative price bubbles).

The topics are cognitive psychology and economics.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Why Camerer was called a child prodigy, and how he looks at that term in the context of nurture vs. nature
  • Synthesizing behavioral economics and neuroscience; understanding Camerer’s studies when traders aren’t looking at the market on a day-to-day basis; how we can stimulate the brain to create a bubble
  • The ethical issues surrounding Camerer’s work
  • Machine learning and data mining
  • Neuroscience and game theory
  • Comparing humans and chimps in the study of neuroscience
  • How trust correlates with economic growth
  • How emotion functions in the modern world

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Ep. 335: The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio
The Bitcoin Episode with Andreas Antonopoulos and Harry Yeh with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Please enjoy my monologue The Bitcoin Episode with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio. This episode may also include great outside guests from my archive.

Listen to this episode:

Want to learn more Trend Following? Watch my video here.

Ep. 333: Gary Dayton Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Gary Dayton
Gary Dayton

My guest today is Gary Dayton. Dayton stands apart as a trading psychologist in his use of the Mindfulness-Acceptance-Commitment (MAC) approach to peak performance, a model of human behavior based on mindfulness. Dayton is a psychologist and holds a doctorate in clinical psychology and a certificate in human performance/sport psychology from Rutgers University. He is President of Peak Psychology, Inc., a consulting firm that specializes in developing “peak” performance in traders.

The topic is his book Trade Mindfully: Achieve Your Optimum Trading Performance with Mindfulness and Cutting-Edge Psychology.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Mindfulness, yoga, and a turnaround in a particularly depressed patient
  • Defining mindfulness
  • How Dayton went from a clinical psychologist to integrating money, markets, trading, and investing into his work
  • The importance of a trading process
  • Looking at the lessons and research of Daniel Kahneman
  • The endowment effect
  • Price action as a heuristic
  • The importance of an exit strategy
  • Why mindfulness is the most important skill a trader can develop

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Ep. 332: Brian Proctor Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

My guest today is Brian Proctor, an original TurtleTrader trained by Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt and today is a Managing Director at EMC Capital. He began his futures career in 1982, with experience at both the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Chicago Board of Trade. Proctor was a participant in the renowned Turtle Program, and managed all trading operations at C&D Commodities through 2000.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Proctor’s first trading moments and the Turtle program
  • Proctor’s view on Liz Cheval, what she brought to his firm, and why she’s still an integral part of EMC today
  • How trend following strategies have continued to excel over the years
  • Diversification and the Swiss franc
  • Black swans and how the impossible can and does happen
  • Bill Eckhardt’s influence

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Ep. 330: Nigol Koulajian Interview with Michael Covel on Trend Following Radio

Nigol Koulajian
Nigol Koulajian

 

My guest today is Nigol Koulajian, the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Quest Partners LLC. He has been designing and trading short-term and long-term technical systems for over 22 years.

The topic is Trend Following.

In this episode of Trend Following Radio we discuss:

  • Trend following performance in 2014
  • Volatility vs. skew
  • Why having a good Sharpe Ratio is not the be-all-end-all
  • The notion that alpha in the CTA world is not a result of skill
  • Correlation between tail risk and the Sharpe Ratio
  • Central bank action and the Swiss Franc
  • Why trend following may not be as good in equity market corrections now as it has been in the past
  • Why trend following is not about the super-complicated mathematics
  • Getting outsiders to understand drawdowns
  • Emotional intelligence vs. intellectual intelligence
  • Media bias against trend following

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